Quote:
Originally Posted by Pre-Highlanders
I know about K-rate. I respect K-rate. K-rate is a friend of mine. K/BB is the first thing I look at in a MiL pitcher's stats. BUT, do any of you stat wizards know whether there is a consensus on what stats (if any) tell us whether a pitcher is Moyerlicious - that is to say, capable of being a good to very good major leaguer without putting up huge K/9's?
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There is not one, single stat that you should rely (yes, I realize that isn't your question).
When looking at traditional stats, I like to rely on K-Rate and K/BB. The reasons are simple. A strikeout is an out 99.9% of the time. A ball put into play is an out roughly 70% of the time (regardless of the pitcher). I also don't like the idea of giving away bases. If a pitcher has a high K/BB, then his chances of having a low WHIP are pretty good. That is one reason I simply never look at WHIP. The other reason is that the pitcher simply doesn't have enough control over whether a batted ball becomes a hit to make it a reason to hold giving up hits against most pitchers.
When looking at batted ball data, I like to focus on GB%. Roughly 10-12% of all flyballs become home runs, compared to less than 1% of groundballs becoming home runs (inside the park). If a pitcher has a crazy high GB%, then he can get away with having a less than stellar K-Rate (see Carmona, F, and Wang, CM). What you want here is a pitcher with a high K-Rate
and a high GB%.
When looking at pitch data, I like to focus on Strk%, or the percentage of all pitches thrown that are strikes. The one exception to being in love with pitchers with high K-Rates, is when said pitcher has a fairly low Strk% (think 60% or lower). I also look at StS%, or the percentage of strikes that are the result of a swing and miss. What's one thing you hear most often from scouts when they discuss promising young pitchers? "He misses bats." StS% is currently the best available stat that I know of for measuring this.
The ultimate prize when it comes to pitchers is someone who gets a lot of strikeouts, with a lot of groundballs, while throwing a high percentage of strikes, while missing a lot of bats. Of course, good luck finding a lot of these.
One more thing. Want to learn how to better evaluate pitchers? Do yourself a favor and buy
The Hardball Times 2008 Baseball Annual. But don't stop there. Buy the previous annuals as well (I believe they go back to 2005 or 2006). Another great tool is the annual
Baseball Forecaster, which is put out by Ron Shandler (despite what some may think, this book is useful for more than just fantasy baseball - which I don't play).