#10 Prospect - RHP Matt Hobgood

The best thing you can say about Hobgood is that he is really young.

No, that's the best thing you can say about him.

Well, he does have a good amount of cash in his bank account too!

What I also see as a con is the fact that he supposedly had one of the best hooks of his HS crop, and now it looks very inconsistent. Also, the fact that his changeup hasn't come along as much as hoped for. His BAA isn't as bad as you'd think and he didn't give up a bunch of HRs which is great, especially with the good GO/AO. IMO that K rate(which an improvement of would have a huge trickle down effect as far as his effectiveness is concerned) is whats holding him back. In order for that K rate to improve, we will definitely need to hope for better conditioning to get the FB consistently into the 92-94 range, but also the curveball will have to get back to being a true "plus" pitch which it probably hasn't been since turning pro.

I know the O's did some changes with his mechanics, so maybe his lack of stuff has something more to do with our coaching staff trying to change his mechanics too much, especially on the front side(trying to quiet his landing)...

Matt Cain was drafted in 2002. Just saying.

It's a weaker top 10 than last year and Hobgood has too much talent to be ranked this low, IMO.

It's a weaker top 10 than last year and Hobgood has too much talent to be ranked this low, IMO.

I disagree, his talent that he has shown thus far in the MiL wasn't what it was in HS. Now, his potential is pretty high, but so are others who are gonna be pretty far down the list. We know he is capable of throwing 92-94 because he has shown it in the past, but there is no guarantee that he does get his FB consistently back into that range. Also, his curve which was his best weapon has not looked as good consistently.

Last year when he was drafted and pitched in Bluefield, we heard his velo was down and were told it was because he was out of shape. This had us a bit worried, but hoped that the 2010 season would be big for him because he would have an offseason to work out and get back into shape. He came into the 2010 season in not the best shape, but most troubling, still without the good FB velocity. So, now you gotta really be worried if it is something else other than the conditioning, if it is the conditioning, then why isn't be busting his but to get into shape? Until he shows what we heard he can do, he is going to have a lot of critics.....

The best thing you can say about Hobgood is that he is really young.

I feel like that was said about Billy Rowell as well. Let's hope next off season we still aren't saying "well he's young for the level he's at".

I haven't made my own top 10 list, but 10th seems about right for Hobgood. He just didn't do enough to deserve to be ranked any higher. Next year I bet he'll either be top 5 or out of the top 20, depending on whether he shows up in shape and pitches to his potential or not.

It's a weaker top 10 than last year and Hobgood has too much talent to be ranked this low, IMO.

I understand that line of thinking, but you have to understand how his stuff didn't show up very often last year. I have many reports of scouts going to see him and see him sit in the 88-90 range with an inconsistent curve and limited changeup. He flashed his promise occasionally but that also seemed to correspond with a shorter outing.

He almost gets an incomplete because we really need to see if he can get himself into better shape this off season and how that plays next year. His inability to miss bats is a concern and if he didn't have such a lofty draft status he might not be in the top ten at all.

I know scouts who don't have him in the O's top 10 so if anything, I'm more bullish on him then some others. Basically I'm giving him a mulligan for last year and will wait to see how he does next year.

The stuff has to improve and hopefully it will with a new found commitment to his conditioning and weight control. I've heard he plans to spend all winter working at one of the top sports fitness facilities and if he comes back in great shape, we could see the guy Jordan saw late in his high school season.

I understand that line of thinking, but you have to understand how his stuff didn't show up very often last year. I have many reports of scouts going to see him and see him sit in the 88-90 range with an inconsistent curve and limited changeup. He flashed his promise occasionally but that also seemed to correspond with a shorter outing.

He almost gets an incomplete because we really need to see if he can get himself into better shape this off season and how that plays next year. His inability to miss bats is a concern and if he didn't have such a lofty draft status he might not be in the top ten at all.

I know scouts who don't have him in the O's top 10 so if anything, I'm more bullish on him then some others. Basically I'm giving him a mulligan for last year and will wait to see how he does next year.

The stuff has to improve and hopefully it will with a new found commitment to his conditioning and weight control. I've heard he plans to spend all winter working at one of the top sports fitness facilities and if he comes back in great shape, we could see the guy Jordan saw late in his high school season.

I understand that line of thinking, but you have to understand how his stuff didn't show up very often last year. I have many reports of scouts going to see him and see him sit in the 88-90 range with an inconsistent curve and limited changeup. He flashed his promise occasionally but that also seemed to correspond with a shorter outing.

He almost gets an incomplete because we really need to see if he can get himself into better shape this off season and how that plays next year. His inability to miss bats is a concern and if he didn't have such a lofty draft status he might not be in the top ten at all.

I know scouts who don't have him in the O's top 10 so if anything, I'm more bullish on him then some others. Basically I'm giving him a mulligan for last year and will wait to see how he does next year.

The stuff has to improve and hopefully it will with a new found commitment to his conditioning and weight control. I've heard he plans to spend all winter working at one of the top sports fitness facilities and if he comes back in great shape, we could see the guy Jordan saw late in his high school season.

IMO these things are related. The fact his curve hasn't been right since being pro and, the fact his FB isn't in the low to mid 90's really affects the K rate...

Hobgood's curve isn't right is because he threw it at a different arm slot from all three of his other pitches, and that had to be corrected. Add that to some big shifts in mechanics and you can pretty much write this season off as a learning experience. Next year will be the year we can actually start to get a read on Hobgood as a prospect.

I know I know, he's young, immature (add your own excuse) but does anyone else get irritated when someone shows up out of shape, to the point where it has an effect?!?!?

I understand that line of thinking, but you have to understand how his stuff didn't show up very often last year. I have many reports of scouts going to see him and see him sit in the 88-90 range with an inconsistent curve and limited changeup. He flashed his promise occasionally but that also seemed to correspond with a shorter outing.

He almost gets an incomplete because we really need to see if he can get himself into better shape this off season and how that plays next year. His inability to miss bats is a concern and if he didn't have such a lofty draft status he might not be in the top ten at all.

I know scouts who don't have him in the O's top 10 so if anything, I'm more bullish on him then some others. Basically I'm giving him a mulligan for last year and will wait to see how he does next year.

The stuff has to improve and hopefully it will with a new found commitment to his conditioning and weight control. I've heard he plans to spend all winter working at one of the top sports fitness facilities and if he comes back in great shape, we could see the guy Jordan saw late in his high school season.

I didn't get rankings but I also know scouts who were unimpressed to the tune of borderline NP unless things change quickly. There are ten other guys in the O's system I'd rather have at this point, that's for sure. As some on here have said, hopefully the maturity comes, he learns to be a pro and the stuff follows. Anytime I see a teen get a paycheck and fail to deliver on the lifestyle stuff, I get nervous. Now, the lightswitch eventually went on for Drabek, so I wouldn't close the book on Hobgood, but he needs to get it together sooner rather than later, as the weight stuff can be tough to shake.

Honestly, Hobgood should call Dan Vogelbach and get some pointers on how to stay motivated and change your lifestyle to better suit being a potential pro athlete. Granted, Matt got his payday and Vogelbach is still working for his, but I saw a lot of Vogelbach last weekend and he's a kid you can't help but believe in.

For those that don't know, Vogelbach is a 2011 1B that weighed in at almost 280 at the Tournament of Stars in June and has since shed 40 lbs getting into better shape. He was one of the more consistent bats in Jupiter last weekend and turned a lot of scouts into believers.