How many good arms are lurking

[RZNJ]

Here are some guys who went down with injury last year or missed significant time.

1. Cameron Coffey (coming back from TJ surgery and then gets a sore shoulder. Last report. No strucural damage but lack of velocity.)

2. Randy Henry (went down with a sore elbow. Last report was that it was just scar tissue and nothing serious)

3. Aaron Wirsch (hip problem caused him to miss a lot of time last year. Seemed to finish year healthy with a good 3 inning sting at Aberdeen. No arm problems that I know of).

4. Ryan Palsha (Hard throwing reliever went down early in the year. No report on his injury that I know of)

5. Jake Cowan ( Got off to a decent start at Delmarva. Reported to have gone down with shoulder problem and had labrum surgery)

6. Ashur Tolliver (Missed most of the season with shoulder soreness. Came back to pitch, mostly inneffectively at Aberdeen, in relief and ended the season there.)

7. Brandon Erbe (After a really bad season at Norfolk, finally went down with shoulder soreness and labrum sugery).

8. Luis Lebron (Perhaps the top relief prospect went down in ML ST with an elbow injury and had TJ surgery. Tony says he's expected to be 100% for ST this year.)

9 David Baker (14 th round pick in 2009 out of HS. Pitched well in debut season. Pitched poorly and went out for the season at Bluefield. Not sure if it was an injury but the circumstantial evidence points that way.)


Erbe and Cowan should miss most of the season with their laburm sugeries. You would hope that the percentages would be with us, in having at least a couple of these guys regaining their prospect status, with Henry, Coffey and Wirsch right at the top of that list. Seven of the nine names were from the 2009 draft wehn Jordan went for overslots on some risky arms. It's still too early to tell if it was a good risk but there certainly is some talent on the above list.

[QBsILLEST1]

Lots and lots of sleepers there who could break out. Hobgood missed some time last year as well.....I will be extremely interested in seeing how Wirsch, Coffey and Henry do this year. To me they are the highest ceiling arms listed and if all 3 were healthy would all 3 be top prospects in our system......I am probably most worried by Coffey of the 3. Wirsch had a strained oblique which isn't long term threatening AFAIK, Henry in his short stint lived up to his billing as far as having a good fastball and curveball, but Coffey hasn't shown the good velocity that got him drafted......That should be a red flag...

[Frobby]

Last year has to be our worst in a very long time in terms of injuries to minor league pitchers. This was a huge problem back in the early part of the 2000's but it seems the organization was much better (or much luckier) once the Thrift/Buford regime left. I hope last year was just an anomoly and that the organization isn't doing something that is putting its pitchers at greater risk.

[panick]

This list should be shown to anyone who complains about drafting so many pitchers each year. Injuries and lack of major league talent are two reasons why people say you can never have enough pitching.

I hope these guys can get past their injuries so we can see if they have major league talent.

[Stotle]

It's a nice wish list, but I don't see it as that dissimilar from many organizations. Here's hoping some of these kids take some steps forward in 2011/12.

[QBsILLEST1]

Last year has to be our worst in a very long time in terms of injuries to minor league pitchers. This was a huge problem back in the early part of the 2000's but it seems the organization was much better (or much luckier) once the Thrift/Buford regime left. I hope last year was just an anomoly and that the organization isn't doing something that is putting its pitchers at greater risk.

I would guess the injuries this year are more a product of drafting injury risk players. That is of course why we were able to get so many prospects in the 09 draft, because they were cheaper due to injuries.

[RVAbird]

This list should be shown to anyone who complains about drafting so many pitchers each year. Injuries and lack of major league talent are two reasons why people say you can never have enough pitching.

I hope these guys can get past their injuries so we can see if they have major league talent.

It's a double-edged sword. Time and time again, it's been proven that HS pitchers stand the highest risk of injury as they develop.

Is it really prudent to take up a good amount of your draft and overslot resources on moderate ceiling HS pitchers, particularly some who have shown injury concerns in the past?

It's at least a good debate.

[QBsILLEST1]

It's a double-edged sword. Time and time again, it's been proven that HS pitchers stand the highest risk of injury as they develop.

Is it really prudent to take up a good amount of your draft and overslot resources on moderate ceiling HS pitchers, particularly some who have shown injury concerns in the past?

It's at least a good debate.

I don't know about moderate ceiling, I'd say that a good majority of the HS arms we took with injury risks had pretty high ceilings, some of the JuCO AND CC guys we took I guess I could agree had moderate ceilings, but to me, the difference is in the risk. An example for me is a guy like Bridwell who's ceiling is as high as any other HS arm in the 2010 draft not named Taillon, but the chance of him accomplishing that ceiling is minute. Randy Henry is another one with a high ceiling though the risk is big. But I do question the strategy as well. I don't mind it being HS pitchers even, but I want quality over quantity.......

[RVAbird]

I don't know about moderate ceiling, I'd say that a good majority of the HS arms we took with injury risks had pretty high ceilings, some of the JuCO AND CC guys we took I guess I could agree had moderate ceilings, but to me, the difference is in the risk. An example for me is a guy like Bridwell who's ceiling is as high as any other HS arm in the 2010 draft not named Taillon, but the chance of him accomplishing that ceiling is minute. Randy Henry is another one with a high ceiling though the risk is big. But I do question the strategy as well. I don't mind it being HS pitchers even, but I want quality over quantity.......

No offense, but I wouldn't be surprised to find that I consider the ceiling of just about every pitching prospect in the system to be lower than you do.

Still, yes it's the risk implied in the philosophy of stockpiling HS pitchers, particularly ones with injury history, in rounds 2-10. In probability theory, if you've got one commodity with a 50% chance of success and another commodity with a 30% chance of success, it is counterproductive to lean on the higher-risk commodity to make up 70% of your picks. You might (might) end up up with fewer home-grown, productive pitchers by leaning positional, but you will very likely end up with fewer home-grown productive players by leaning (HS) pitching.

Of course, the difference in talent lessens as you get into the later rounds of the draft. So, the higher the round, the more I'd emphasize putting risk and organizational needs on the backburner and going instead with the best player available. The deeper you get into the draft, though, the more you have to weigh percentages.

[hoosiers]

Good thread. There are several, quality arms in our system waiting to break out into the top 15 - some capable of doing better than that. Many drafted quite recently.

[waroriole]

Is it really prudent to take up a good amount of your draft and overslot resources on moderate ceiling HS pitchers, particularly some who have shown injury concerns in the past?

It's at least a good debate.

Good question. I would say it depends on your system. How much risk can you take with your draft (i.e. what does your farm system look like with regard to P). Some years, it might be smart to take the risky HS pitching; while others might necessitate less risky college arms.

With all the arms the O's seemed to have at the time of the '09 draft, it might not have been a bad idea to take the overslot HS arms. If these guys don't rebound (at least some) we'll see the consequences of taking such a risk.

[QBsILLEST1]

IMO, at the time of the 09 draft, we weren't in position to take THAT much risk, but of course hindsight is 20/20. It was obvious that our assets in the MiL system were running dry and we needed to reload in a big way. Maybe JJ figured the best way to reload quickly would be to infuse as much talent as possible throughh quantity rather than quality using the method of drafting injured or injury risk players. It was a HUGE gamble, and after a year and a half looks like a disaster, though it is still too early to reserve judgement. If we wanted to go slot in the 1st and be go with riskier injured guys afterwards, we should have went with a college guy rather than Hobgood to add some sort of safety to the draft.....Just my opinion though, but once again hindisght is 20/20....

[waroriole]

If we wanted to go slot in the 1st and be go with riskier injured guys afterwards, we should have went with a college guy rather than Hobgood to add some sort of safety to the draft.....Just my opinion though, but once again hindisght is 20/20....

Yeah, this is a good point. Maybe instead of Hobgood, grab Leake. He'd still be a cheap sign, and allow you to spend on the overslots later. Of course, hindsight and all.

[allstar1579]

IMO, at the time of the 09 draft, we weren't in position to take THAT much risk, but of course hindsight is 20/20. It was obvious that our assets in the MiL system were running dry and we needed to reload in a big way. Maybe JJ figured the best way to reload quickly would be to infuse as much talent as possible throughh quantity rather than quality using the method of drafting injured or injury risk players. It was a HUGE gamble, and after a year and a half looks like a disaster, though it is still too early to reserve judgement. If we wanted to go slot in the 1st and be go with riskier injured guys afterwards, we should have went with a college guy rather than Hobgood to add some sort of safety to the draft.....Just my opinion though, but once again hindisght is 20/20....

I think the plan at the time was to start restocking the lower minors since we had a good stockpile in the uppers by then (the calvary). If you lock into a HS pitcher you are pretty much looking at Matzek, Hobgood, Wheeler, Miller, Turner Etc...the rest of those guys took some pretty good money to sign, so I guess it makes sense that way, but not a way I would approach the draft myself.