Sheehan on 2011 Birds

[Remember The Alomar]

I get the Joe Sheehan's news letter (thirty bucks for a year, but totally worth it) and he happened to focus on the 2011 Orioles today.

He doesn't really discuss anything groundbreaking--it seems to be more for those who haven't really paid attention to the Orioles this year. He was asked if the 2011 Orioles were good enough to "surprise" anyone this year and goes on to claim that while improved, they'll fall well short of the playoffs. Obviously, I'm pretty sure 99% of us knew this already, but there were still a few interesting excerpts:

On our off season and long term projection-

While they've been active this winter, their moves have not been transformative, serving mostly to raise some positions from terrible to average or thereabouts. Their base talent level is as high as it has been in some time thanks to a core of young players acquired through the draft and one very big trade, but it is shy of championship-caliber.

On Vlad-

There's some case for the Orioles signing Vladimir Guerrero if Guerrero is to be paid and used as a spare part...Guerrero, though, has no business playing for this team against right-handed pitching...adding a second DH --Scott is better than he is defensively, but not by much --would be a waste of resources.

On "The Showalter Effect"-

From August 2 forward, the Orioles had the third-best record in baseball, behind the Twins and Phillies, at 34-23.Here's the catch: they outscored their opponents in those 51 games, but by a mere 22 runs...They were extremely fortunate in one-run games under Showalter

I left out a ton, but he also thinks that some pitchers in our bullpen will comeback to earth (specifically Koji). Sheehan also claims that our roster is filled with question marks and could possibly be part of the conversation late in the year if everything breaks right, but the variance between mid-case and best-case projections is so great that it's impossible to know for sure what the true talent base of this team is.

He doesn't make a win projection, but he doesn't think they'll ultimately be "good enough".

I know what I posted seems negative, but I think it's pretty spot on. It reinforces what we've been saying for a while now--the O's could win anywhere from ~70-85 games and we'll have a much better idea where we stand as a franchise by the end of the year.

As for the newsletter itself, it's awesome. $30 may seem like a lot for a newsletter, but he sounds out around ~200 issues a year and they're always around 1,500 to 2,000 words. If you're a fan of excellent baseball analysis you should definitely sign up.

[The Epic]

From August 2 forward, the Orioles had the third-best record in baseball, behind the Twins and Phillies, at 34-23.Here's the catch: they outscored their opponents in those 51 games, but by a mere 22 runs...They were extremely fortunate in one-run games under Showalter

I hear 34 + 23 doesn't equal 51.

Great stuff, though!

[blwalt17]

34+23=51?

EDIT: already been covered.

Still a great article. How often do you receive the newsletter?

[clapdiddy]

I think one thing that Sheehan may have overlooked in the one-run games is the use and performance of the bullpen.

Yes, I realize that we are likely to have the reverse record in those one-run games this season, but I think the roles the guys were put in and their performance in those roles played a major part in many of the victories. We didn't have Matt Albers or Simon or Hendrickson coming in at key times in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.

I dunno...maybe I've drank the Orange KoolAid...or something else?

[Frobby]

I think it would be almost impossible for any pundit to foresee the Orioles being in contention this year, principally because it takes a leap of faith to believe that our pitching will be well above average over 162 games. And that is what it would take.

But no matter what the pundits will say, the possibility of a large leap forward by our pitchers definitely exists, based on what we saw the final two months of last year. Obviously I'm not expecting 6 months as good as the final 2 months of last year, but 6 months of very significant improvement over 2010 is a definite possibility, in my mind.

[Remember The Alomar]

34+23=51?

EDIT: already been covered.

Still a great article. How often do you receive the newsletter?

Anywhere from a couple times a week to one every day--it ramps up as the season gets underway.

[SoBo]

After 13 losing seasons, it's going to take more than a 2 month window of good baseball to convince anyone outside of the Baltimore metro area that this team can surprise. But since I do live in the metro area, I do believe!

[crissfan172]

There's some case for the Orioles signing Vladimir Guerrero if Guerrero is to be paid and used as a spare part...Guerrero, though, has no business playing for this team against right-handed pitching...adding a second DH --Scott is better than he is defensively, but not by much --would be a waste of resources.

How am I supposed to take this seriously?

[Remember The Alomar]

How am I supposed to take this seriously?

The man did work for Baseball Prospectus at one point.

[byrdz]

The man did work for Baseball Prospectus at one point.

So you believe what he's saying? Scott the Blue Ox is not much better than Grandpa Gimpy?

[Peace21]

While they've been active this winter, their moves have not been transformative, serving mostly to raise some positions from terrible to average or thereabouts. Their base talent level is as high as it has been in some time thanks to a core of young players acquired through the draft and one very big trade, but it is shy of championship-caliber.

Just curious, but couldn't the same have been said about the Giants team this time a year ago? Or are the two totally different?

[Winter]

just a winning season! PLEASE!

[SammyBirdland]

I hear 34 + 23 doesn't equal 51.

Great stuff, though!

I remember several games from last season where I could have sworn we scored a negative number of runs.

[sangar]

I remember several games from last season where I could have sworn we scored a negative number of runs.

Yeah, and some other games where we deserved more than one loss.

[AgentOrange]

Just curious, but couldn't the same have been said about the Giants team this time a year ago? Or are the two totally different?

I am not sure I agree with his idea that the 3 guys we picked up are only average pickups. When you look at Hardy, his OPS should be in the top 10 in the league with above average defense. Mark Reynolds has the upside to be above average at 3b. If Lee bounces back closer to 09 form, he would be above average at 1st. So that's 3 upgrades from abysmal to above average. That is pretty substantial to me. At that to the upside of our young players, you have the ingredients for a very interesting season in Baltimore.