BA Fiirst Mock Draft

**brotherlo38** · 04-26-2011 11:40 AM

Keep in mind, this is how they would draft and not what they think or have heard will happen.

4. ORIOLES (John): When he was the manager in Arizona and later Texas, Buck Showalter got involved in the draft decision-making process, reportedly steering the Rangers to take John Mayberry Jr. instead of Travis Buck in 2005. If Showalter has any influence in Baltimore's draft room, it likely will involve getting polished talent to help the Orioles quickly, while they have some veterans and are trying to end their 13-year streak of losing seasons. Baltimore doesn't pick again until No. 64, so getting this pick right is imperative. While there have been rumors that he may be tough to sign, Danny Hultzen is the best choice for the Orioles. Another lefthander to team with Brian Matusz and Zach Britton is the smart choice, too.

Rendon to Pittsburgh, Cole to Seattle, Bradley to Arizona.

Link

**RVAbird** · 04-26-2011 01:00 PM

Things could certainly shake out this way, though if ARI wants to go college lefty I assume they'd just select Hultzen again. Top members of that organization love him.

If that left us with Bradley, that's a fine pick. Not quite as polished as Hultzen, but potentially higher ceiling and better build. He'll need to work out some command kinks and refine his secondaries but still should have a <3 year rough MiL development track.

From what I understand, the big six that BAL is considering at this point are Cole, Rendon, Hulzten, Bradley, Bundy and Starling. That doesn't mean there couldn't be a sleeper in the mix, but each of those six guys was in play as of a couple of weeks ago.

I wish Sonny Gray was stronger in the conversation, but sometimes a scout can't get a small frame out of his mind. I understand the sentiment, but I think it needs to be considered on a case to case basis.

Still, any of the six guys mentioned above are justifiable IMO.

**Hutman** · 04-26-2011 04:40 PM

The top of this draft is stacked. I love the idea of Hultzen, I think he'd move quickly and has shown nice improvement this year, I've been hearing his name to Arizona at number 3, but if he's there I'd love to see the O's grab him. I also love Starling and Bundy from the HS ranks, but they will take longer to reach the bigs, but both have tons of potential.

**allstar1579** · 04-26-2011 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by RVAbird

Things could certainly shake out this way, though if ARI wants to go college lefty I assume they'd just select Hultzen again. Top members of that organization love him.

If that left us with Bradley, that's a fine pick. Not quite as polished as Hultzen, but potentially higher ceiling and better build. He'll need to work out some command kinks and refine his secondaries but still should have a <3 year rough MiL development track.

From what I understand, the big six that BAL is considering at this point are Cole, Rendon, Hulzten, Bradley, Bundy and Starling. That doesn't mean there couldn't be a sleeper in the mix, but each of those six guys was in play as of a couple of weeks ago.

I wish Sonny Gray was stronger in the conversation, but sometimes a scout can't get a small frame out of his mind. I understand the sentiment, but I think it needs to be considered on a case to case basis.

Still, any of the six guys mentioned above are justifiable IMO.

It's not just the frame with Gray. His last bunch of starts his control has been all over the place. He's looking more like a 7-12 pick for me, and I liked him fringe top 5 for a long time.

**Stotle** · 04-26-2011 07:37 PM

Originally Posted by allstar1579

It's not just the frame with Gray. His last bunch of starts his control has been all over the place. He's looking more like a 7-12 pick for me, and I liked him fringe top 5 for a long time.

Tim Lincecum - 4.5 BB/9 his junior year at Washington.

**allstar1579** · 04-26-2011 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by Stotle

Tim Lincecum - 4.5 BB/9 his junior year at Washington.

Yuck. Nice stat pull though, kudos.

You might be more up on him than me, but I heard not even the walks being the issue he was just having trouble locating all together. Thought maybe a nagging injury or something, so I was keeping tabs for the rest of the season.

**Sports Guy** · 04-26-2011 08:01 PM

Saw a tweet today that Gammons is hearing that Hulzten could go #1...but its just a rumor.

**RVAbird** · 04-26-2011 08:06 PM

Originally Posted by allstar1579

It's not just the frame with Gray. His last bunch of starts his control has been all over the place. He's looking more like a 7-12 pick for me, and I liked him fringe top 5 for a long time.

It is just the frame for many. People were writing off Gray based on size/effort before the season.

I agree that control/command is a legitimate concern, and have said such. It's not prohibitive of me picking him top 5, however.

**Stotle** · 04-26-2011 08:28 PM

Originally Posted by allstar1579

Yuck. Nice stat pull though, kudos.

You might be more up on him than me, but I heard not even the walks being the issue he was just having trouble locating all together. Thought maybe a nagging injury or something, so I was keeping tabs for the rest of the season.

Eh, I don't see injury concern. His stuff is where it usually is. His command is where it usually is. He's improved his BB/9, SO/9, HR/9 and H/9 over the past year. He's still maintaining 94-96 into the late innings and showing a potential plus-plus breaker. I think command is one of the concerns you point to if you are pointing to concerns. I think size is a legit concern. But I think he overcomes both when it comes to developing into a good pro pitcher. I can't imagine he'll ever be a surgeon on the mound, but he should be accurate enough to succeed.

**Stotle** · 04-26-2011 08:29 PM

Originally Posted by Sports Guy

Saw a tweet today that Gammons is hearing that Hulzten could go #1...but its just a rumor.

I can't for the life of me imagine that actually happening, though I have the utmost professional respect for Mr. Gammons.

**flashjordnk** · 04-27-2011 09:29 AM

So for those of you who know a lot about the draft, are there any high upside guys who's stock is falling that you would have expected here, but aren't. And that might have a chance to drop down to the O's next pick. We won't pick again until what 64th? So is this even a reasonable question to ask?

**Stotle** · 04-27-2011 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by flashjordnk

So for those of you who know a lot about the draft, are there any high upside guys who's stock is falling that you would have expected here, but aren't. And that might have a chance to drop down to the O's next pick. We won't pick again until what 64th? So is this even a reasonable question to ask?

Matt Purke, obviously. Zach Cone (of, Georgia) entered the season with a chance to crack the 1st Rd and has struggled some, statistically (though I think his issues are correctable). Archie Bradley could fall due to signability, along the lines of AJ Cole last year (though with so many teams having extra picks I imagine someone would take a stab in the supplemental 1st Rd. Austin Hedges (c, JSerra HS, Calif.) is a stud defensive catcher that has swung the bat a little too -- his commitment is supposed to be strong, so he could slip to the 2nd or later. I'd like to say Alex Meyer (RHP, Kentucky) but don't see him making it out of the supplemental (and he could honestly still be selected in the top 10 overall). One interesting name is Austin Wood (rhp, USC) who has a little Arrieta in his draft profile. Showed 1st Rd stuff over the summer, has dialed up to 96 this spring, but command and consistency have been off. I can't imagine him going before the 2nd Rd at this point -- could be a very nice pick-up for an org that believes his issues can be cleaned-up quickly.

**waroriole** · 04-27-2011 10:15 AM

Does anyone know what kind of bonus Hultzen would be seeking? More than 6?

Also, can anyone say what kind of talent might be there with the 2nd rounder? What guys could fall, and how would they rank in our system?

**Stotle** · 04-27-2011 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by waroriole

Does anyone know what kind of bonus Hultzen would be seeking? More than 6?

Also, can anyone say what kind of talent might be there with the 2nd rounder? What guys could fall, and how would they rank in our system?

Good talent in 2nd Rd -- potential mid-rotation arm, starting position player, etc.

Hultzens have not made any figures public, so far as I am aware.

**Hutman** · 04-27-2011 10:44 AM

Originally Posted by waroriole

Does anyone know what kind of bonus Hultzen would be seeking? More than 6?

Also, can anyone say what kind of talent might be there with the 2nd rounder? What guys could fall, and how would they rank in our system?

Do we know who his "advisor" is. I'm guessing that they will be looking at Cole (a Boras client) as their benchmark. I'm guessing when all is said and done, he will get a similar deal to the one we gave Matusz when he was drafted, as he was a # 4 pick.

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