Looking ahead to the 2012 draft

[ChaosLex]

It's never too early, right?

... right?

High school

Lance McCullers, RHP, Tampa Jesuit HS, Fla.: McCullers has an electric arm. The son of the former big leaguer of the same name, he has the chance to be much better than his dad, with a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and signs of a plus slider.

Nick Williams, OF, Galveston Ball HS, Texas: He's got a very advanced idea at the plate, a left-handed hitter with the chance to be a run producer with power. He's athletic and should profile very well as a corner outfielder.

Trey Williams, 3B, Valencia HS, Calif.: The son of former first-round pick Eddie Williams is a strong right-handed hitter with legitimate power potential.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.: Giolito is big and strong and can crank his fastball into the mid-90s with a low-effort delivery.

Addison Russell, SS, Pace HS, Fla.: Russell is very strong and athletic. He's an excellent right-handed hitter who makes consistent, hard contact with power. He's got a plus arm as well.

College

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford: Some believe that Appel, a power pitcher who's been at the front of Stanford's rotation for two years, could be the No. 1 overall pick.

Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State: Part of an impressive crop of 2012 Draft talent at ASU, Marrero is a legitimate shortstop with great defensive actions and a playable bat for the next level.

Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M: Wacha stepped up with John Stilson on the shelf to pitch A&M to a Super Regional. He'll be the staff ace in 2012.

Jake Barrett, RHP, Arizona State: He and Brady Rogers may form the best college rotation in the game in 2012, ASU's version of Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer.

Branden Kline, RHP, Virginia: Virginia's closer, Kline had 17 saves heading into the Super Regional. He's athletic and has a live arm, the kind of college closer who could be very quick to the big leagues.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...tnerId=rss_mlb

[Fan4Life]

Plus anyone that doesn't sign this draft.

[Icterus galbula]

Just for fun, here are the two earliest threads I could find on the 2011 draft here:

2011 Draft Chat

O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[section18]

Who do you think are the top 5 players for the 2012 draft at this time. Does anyone have any updates from the national publications?

[Richmond Bird 9]

How far have we fallen, the best thing we look forward to is the draft in 2012 ??

[Stotle]

Appel, marrero, williams, giolito, russell, virant, ruiz, weickel, diekroger, wacha, gausman, zunino, rodgers, johnson all worth watching. No clear top 5 right now. Giolito/Appel/Williams probably 3 most popular right now.

[RVAbird]

Appel, marrero, williams, giolito, russell, virant, ruiz, weickel, diekroger, wacha, gausman, zunino, rodgers, johnson all worth watching. No clear top 5 right now. Giolito/Appel/Williams probably 3 most popular right now.

You don't have McCullers on your top follow list?

[RVAbird]

Gausman is intriguing as a draft eligible sophomore. I like Wacha a lot.

I don't think I'm quite as high on Appel as others seem to be. I'd liked to have seen more swing-and-miss in 2011.

I'm also not particularly high at the moment on Diekroeger. He needs to show me a lot this year.

Really like Nick Williams' tools.

Zunino is a legit bat - .371/.442/.674 (1.116 OPS) in 2011 for Florida.

Stotle, what do you make of Victor Roache (OF, Georgia Southern)?

.326/.438/.778! with 30 HRs in 230 ABs. Is that power for real? Will he make contact enough to manifest?

[Stotle]

Gausman is intriguing as a draft eligible sophomore. I like Wacha a lot.

I don't think I'm quite as high on Appel as others seem to be. I'd liked to have seen more swing-and-miss in 2011.

I'm also not particularly high at the moment on Diekroeger. He needs to show me a lot this year.

Really like Nick Williams' tools.

Zunino is a legit bat - .371/.442/.674 (1.116 OPS) in 2011 for Florida.

Stotle, what do you make of Victor Roache (OF, Georgia Southern)?

.326/.438/.778! with 30 HRs in 230 ABs. Is that power for real? Will he make contact enough to manifest?

Haven't been in on him. No idea about his tools. He's a big dude with a lot of swing-and-miss according to stat line. Don't know if there is reason to think he'll get better.

Diekroger is an athleticism play. What do you dislike outside of the slash line from last year?

What do you think of Appel if you aren't sold? Big projectable arm that throws mid-90s with a plus slider is usually a nice combo for a rising junior, no?

[Stotle]

You don't have McCullers on your top follow list?

Yeah, he's at the top. Out of mind since I haven't seen him this summer (all the guys I listed were on my USA rosters I had while at the car dealership this morning), but clearly one of the better arms in the class.

[Stotle]

And to be clear, no evaluators have actual 2012 rankings at this point. Even follow lists are super loose until the end of the summer/fall. It's all info accumulation at this point.

[section18]

Thanks for the information.

[RVAbird]

Haven't been in on him. No idea about his tools. He's a big dude with a lot of swing-and-miss according to stat line. Don't know if there is reason to think he'll get better.

Diekroger is an athleticism play. What do you dislike outside of the slash line from last year?

What do you think of Appel if you aren't sold? Big projectable arm that throws mid-90s with a plus slider is usually a nice combo for a rising junior, no?

When I say I'm not high on one of these guys, it just means that they don't jump out at me as being elite picks. Not that I don't like what they have to offer. For example, I wasn't high on Barnes pre-season, wasn't high on him throughout the season, but would still love to have a Barnes-esque prospect and think Boston had a fantastic draft. I guess I just mean I'm not high relative to the praise I see elsewhere.

I like Appel a ton and think he's a legit first-half of the first-round pick, just have a feeling he won't be the first college pitcher on my board when all is said and done. I hold him to a higher standard because he's being called the cream of the crop. Really like the stuff and frame, just curious why he didn't miss more bats last year with K numbers up throughout the conference in general.

Diekroeger is a scout's pick. You can dream on him turning into something special, but a sub .100 ISO-P concerns me, particularly from a guy who might end up at third base. I know he showed well at the Area Code games out of high school, was selected in the 2nd round by Tampa Bay, and had a phenomenal freshman season, but when a kid's ISO-P drops below 100 and BA drops below 300 the year the new bats are implemented, it's a red flag to me. I'm not ruling him out, but I need to see more next season.

[Stotle]

When I say I'm not high on one of these guys, it just means that they don't jump out at me as being elite picks. Not that I don't like what they have to offer. For example, I wasn't high on Barnes pre-season, wasn't high on him throughout the season, but would still love to have a Barnes-esque prospect and think Boston had a fantastic draft. I guess I just mean I'm not high relative to the praise I see elsewhere.

I like Appel a ton and think he's a legit first-half of the first-round pick, just have a feeling he won't be the first college pitcher on my board when all is said and done. I hold him to a higher standard because he's being called the cream of the crop. Really like the stuff and frame, just curious why he didn't miss more bats last year with K numbers up throughout the conference in general.

Diekroeger is a scout's pick. You can dream on him turning into something special, but a sub .100 ISO-P concerns me, particularly from a guy who might end up at third base. I know he showed well at the Area Code games out of high school, was selected in the 2nd round by Tampa Bay, and had a phenomenal freshman season, but when a kid's ISO-P drops below 100 and BA drops below 300 the year the new bats are implemented, it's a red flag to me. I'm not ruling him out, but I need to see more next season.

Oh, okay. Sounds more like a "I don't know, I need to see more" than a "I'm not high on him". Fair enough.

As an aside, I think a lot of stat analysis using last year is going to lead to some bad assumptions being made -- particularly in the bloggosphere -- but that's just me.

[RVAbird]

Oh, okay. Sounds more like a "I don't know, I need to see more" than a "I'm not high on him". Fair enough.

As an aside, I think a lot of stat analysis using last year is going to lead to some bad assumptions being made -- particularly in the bloggosphere -- but that's just me.

Poor wording on my part I guess.

BTW, I absolutely agree re: statistical analysis of 2011. We simply don't have enough data to draw inferences about loss in production due to bats, which I hardly intended to do. I simply said that it's a concern. A strong showing in 2012 could go a long way toward easing my doubts about Diekroeger.