An O's target: Tom Mendonca

**wildcard** · 06-23-2011 07:26 AM

Well, at least he should be.

When I read an article on a minor league third baseman and they call him the next Brooks Robinson it gets my attention. Then when I look up the 23 year old and see he is hitting .332 with a 980 OPS in AA, the interest grows. Yes, its the Texas League which is known for hitting but still this guy in interesting. Especially when he is blocked by Adrian Beltre.

I could see Reynolds moving to 1B or DH.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...ooks-robinson/

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=545053

**JohnnyK27** · 06-23-2011 07:35 AM

Originally Posted by wildcard

Well, at least he should be.

When I read an article on a minor league third baseman and they call him the next Brooks Robinson it gets my attention. Then when I look up the 23 year old and see he is hitting .332 with a 980 OPS in AA, the interest grows. Yes, its the Texas League which is known for hitting but still this guy in interesting. Especially when he is blocked by Adrian Beltre.

I could see Reynolds moving to 1B or DH.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...ooks-robinson/

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=545053

I mentioned this guy in a trade thread a week or two ago and it was received with "MEH" type reaction.

**MatthewW** · 06-23-2011 08:38 AM

Not that he is by any means the end-all, be-all... but he isn't listed anywhere on Sickels top Rangers 2011 prospects list. And that list is 37 players deep...

LINK

So, what exactly do you give up for him???

**flashjordnk** · 06-23-2011 08:50 AM

Originally Posted by MatthewW

Not that he is by any means the end-all, be-all... but he isn't listed anywhere on Sickels top Rangers 2011 prospects list. And that list is 37 players deep...

LINK

So, what exactly do you give up for him???

This does seem to be the question. I like him as a target, and as I had mentioned in another thread, if we replaced Reynolds at 3b with an above average glove and replaced Vlad at DH with an above average bat, we'd be much better off as a team. I'm not sure the Rangers would be smart to move him now if he's hitting well. If he can turn into more, wouldn't they be able to net a better prospect in the long term? What would be their rush to dump this guy if you're Texas?...as he's only 23 and he's not MLB ready yet. I can't see a reason for them to trade him unless we're giving them an offer they can't refuse.

But I would like to see someone like this in our system.

**crowmst3k!** · 06-23-2011 08:51 AM

The big red flag would be his K:BB ratio. It's ugly. We have another 3B in the org that K's a lot and doesn't walk much...his name is Josh Bell. The only reason Mendonca's OBP is high is because of the high average. Sometimes that's sustainable as a player moves up in an organization, but often it isn't.

Would I trade for him? Sure. Would I give up anything of major value? Probably not.

**NCRaven** · 06-23-2011 08:54 AM

He was a 2nd round pick out of Fresno State in '09. Decent college numbers that improved each year. His minor league numbers weren't particularly stellar until this season, but again, he has shown improvement at each step along the way.

I wouldn't give an arm or leg for him, but he would be someone I wouldn't mind adding to the system given our lack of anything like a sure thing at 3rd.

He did have 28 errors at 3B last year at A+, so I'm not so sure where the Brooks Robinson comparisons are coming from (given that I've never seen him play).

**TakebackOPACY** · 06-23-2011 09:00 AM

This is what Sickels had to say before the 2010 season:

19) Tommy Mendonca, 3B, Grade C+: Enormous power. . .but can he control the strike zone against better pitching?

Just stat-glaring, we see good numbers so far in 2011 with a huge Home/Away split. He has 75 K's in 298 Plate Appearances (66 games) against AA pitching, though.

Here's an OH thread from right before the '09 draft. Mendonca went to Tex in the 2nd round. Crawdad posts a quote from his Camden Depot pre-draft review of Mendonca:
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...n-Tom-Mendonca

Originally Posted by crawdad May 2009

Here is the little summary:

Mendonca has big time raw power, a big time arm and smooth actions at third. The rest of the package carries some risks -- primarily whether or not he'll make enough contact for his power to play at the next level. His stock could vary greatly depending on how successful his drafting team believes it can be in tightening-up his swing and tapping into that raw power. His defense will help his case, as would his continuing to cut down on his strikeout rate. Perhaps most importantly, he can continue to show an improved understanding of the strikezone and discipline in his approach. It's unlikely Mendonca will ever hit for a high average, but with some adjustments he could provide above-average power and defense at third, ideally profiling as slightly more than a three-outcome third baseman with plus arm and defense. A team that believes in his skillset could nab him as early as the late or supplemental first round.

**Sports Guy** · 06-23-2011 10:06 AM

The players the Rangers would be interested in acquiring, in all likelihood, would be JJ or Koji.

So, for those of you asking who would we trade to get him, the answer is one of those 2.

The K and BB ratios are enough for me to want to keep those guys over him.

**Stotle** · 06-23-2011 10:09 AM

Originally Posted by TakebackOPACY

This is what Sickels had to say before the 2010 season:

Just stat-glaring, we see good numbers so far in 2011 with a huge Home/Away split. He has 75 K's in 298 Plate Appearances (66 games) against AA pitching, though.

Here's an OH thread from right before the '09 draft. Mendonca went to Tex in the 2nd round. Crawdad posts a quote from his Camden Depot pre-draft review of Mendonca:
http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...n-Tom-Mendonca

That was actually my write-up. Saw him that spring when I was out in California -- Fresno was at Loyola that weekend.

Mid-quality video here:

Has cleaned-up his load some, but still inconsistent and holes still there.

**wildcard** · 06-23-2011 11:27 AM

Originally Posted by Stotle

That was actually my write-up. Saw him that spring when I was out in California -- Fresno was at Loyola that weekend.

Mid-quality video here:

Has cleaned-up his load some, but still inconsistent and holes still there.

So, do you think he will become any everyday 3B in the majors. What is the chances he will be an about average players?

**flashjordnk** · 06-23-2011 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by Sports Guy

The players the Rangers would be interested in acquiring, in all likelihood, would be JJ or Koji.

So, for those of you asking who would we trade to get him, the answer is one of those 2.

The K and BB ratios are enough for me to want to keep those guys over him.

That's right this about the cost. Even if he grew into a better player or he stayed consistent in future years we could probably leverage a JJ or Koji for this same blocked prospect without assuming the risk. For the cost of MLB ready, and contributing talent no way. Could we get this guy and another guy for Koji or JJ, that's the question. Can we get him as an add on, and is there someone he could be paired with for fair value to Texas at this point.

**RVAbird** · 06-23-2011 11:33 AM

Originally Posted by wildcard

Well, at least he should be.

When I read an article on a minor league third baseman and they call him the next Brooks Robinson it gets my attention. Then when I look up the 23 year old and see he is hitting .332 with a 980 OPS in AA, the interest grows. Yes, its the Texas League which is known for hitting but still this guy in interesting. Especially when he is blocked by Adrian Beltre.

I could see Reynolds moving to 1B or DH.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...ooks-robinson/

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=545053

Awful plate discipline. Tough to see the raw pop manifesting if he doesn't start to connect more. Could be an above average defender, though Brooks comparisons are laughable.

You mentioned that there was no reason to trade JJ in another thread. Well, would you trade JJ for Mendonca and maybe another spare part?

**wildcard** · 06-23-2011 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by RVAbird

Awful plate discipline. Tough to see the raw pop manifesting if he doesn't start to connect more. Could be an above average defender, though Brooks comparisons are laughable.

You mentioned that there was no reason to trade JJ in another thread. Well, would you trade JJ for Mendonca and maybe another spare part?

Comparing a minor leaguer to a HOFer is almost always unfair. I just take it to mean he is good defensively. If a guy is hitting 330 with a 380 OBP, why would he walk?

Its more a question of can he improve at the next level IMO.

**Sports Guy** · 06-23-2011 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by wildcard

Comparing a minor leaguer to a HOFer is almost always unfair. I just take it to mean he is good defensively. If a guy is hitting 330 with a 380 OBP, why would he walk?
Its more a question of can he improve at the next level IMO.

The question is, can he carry that skill over to the majors? It works for Ichiro but he is rare.

**RVAbird** · 06-23-2011 11:50 AM

Originally Posted by wildcard

Comparing a minor leaguer to a HOFer is almost always unfair. I just take it to mean he is good defensively. If a guy is hitting 330 with a 380 OBP, why would he walk?

Its more a question of can he improve at the next level IMO.

Yes, because Tommy Mendonca, he of the 30% K rate and flyball tendencies, should be expected to hit .330 in the big leagues?

The plate discipline is a problem because he's not going to make contact enough to hit for a good average in MLB. Therefore, if he's walking at 6%, his OBP will suffer, and if he's not patient at the plate, he won't see enough hitter's pitches to manifest his raw power. It is a big concern.

Short sample sizes of over-aged success in good hitters' leagues aside, would you trade JJ for Mendonca+?

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