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09-21-2011 09:39 AM #196
09-21-2011 09:44 AM #197
Man, Oklahoma really took this one to the face. First they issue ultimatums for staying in the league, then the Pac-12 takes away their exit strategy, and now they have to live with it. Fail.
What happens to Oklahoma? And here we reach the multimillion-dollar question. More than any other school this side of Texas A&M — and maybe even as much as the Aggies — Oklahoma wanted out, and made only the barest, most semantic bones about it. Even when it hedged its bets today by leaking the possibility of staying in the Big 12, the olive branch came with demands for major reform, beginning with Dan Beebe's resignation and rules against airing high school or Big 12 conference games on the Longhorn Network. Just hours later, the Pac-12 has called the Sooners' bluff and they appear to be stuck in the league they more or less openly repudiated, with the commissioner they said they could no longer tolerate.
Can OU possibly still get its way? Or live with the consequences if it doesn't? The only conceivable alternative is an unlikely play — make that a highly unlikely play — to follow Texas A&M to the SEC with Oklahoma State and either Texas or Missouri (most likely the latter) en tow to swell the SEC ranks to sixteen. But there is no indication that the SEC plans to go that far, or that it's been in any kind of contact with either Oklahoma school. And there is every indication, at the moment, that the Sooners are going to have to suck it up, make nice and wait for the next round of musical chairs to make their move.
But that's only for the moment.
09-21-2011 09:47 AM #198
09-21-2011 09:58 AM #199
09-21-2011 09:59 AM #200
09-21-2011 12:50 PM #201
09-21-2011 12:58 PM #202
IMO, this is real bad for the remaining Big East teams. If the Big XII somehow stays together with Texas, Baylor, OK, OKST, Kansas, KSt, Iowa St, Texas Tech then they will just poach whatever teams they need to fill out a conference (TCU and Boise State, for example).
That leaves these remaining Big East teams where exactly? Do they all just sort of branch out and try to latch on somewhere or do they get really desperate and invite teams like East Carolina and Marshall (just examples) into their conference? Either way, you have to think the days of the Big East receiving an automatic BCS bid are about over. Finally, what happens with the basketball side of things. The Big East still has a decent cadre of catholic hoops teams -- I wonder if the Big East folds football and just has a basketball league?
09-21-2011 01:02 PM #203
Book this. Pres Boren was told he, the #sooners & # okstate, had the votes to join # Pac12. There'll be denials everywhere. But that is a fact. # Big12
The Big XII schools must all hate each other at this point. Good luck getting anything done in the next few years. I'm sure there is some bad blood between Oklahoma and Texas right now.
East Division: Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, Richmond
West Division: DePaul, Marquette, Notre Dame, Xavier, Butler (If Notre Dame leaves, one of Dayton, SLU, or Creighton come in.)
As a Xavier fan, I am very afraid that the Big East hybrid will remain by adding a combo of the academies, UCF, ECU, and Temple. If the A-10 loses Temple, it becomes the 9th or 10th best conference in the country, which most likely means Juan Bid. I don't want Xavier associated with that.
Last edited by PrivateO; 09-21-2011 at 01:06 PM.
09-21-2011 03:32 PM #204
So now that it looks like it will be at least one more year before the superconference era dawns, it's time to ponder what will still happen in the present. My thoughts:
- The ACC will stand pat for now. I get the feeling that if/when the ACC goes to 16 teams it wants a shot at Notre Dame being one of them, and either UConn or Rutgers the other. But Notre Dame still doesn't need to join a conference yet, so both parties will continue to wait.
- The big question is what the SEC will do. If in fact the Big XII is saved, Baylor & Co. will most likely drop their lawsuit threat and clear the way for A&M to officially join the SEC. It seems obvious that the SEC would like to go to 14, with Missouri being the first choice. But with the Big XII surviving, would Missouri leave? And would Missouri leaving hurt the chances the Big XII will survive? It appears the SEC is not interested in any of the Big East teams, and an ACC team might be too costly with the new $20 million exit fee. Oklahoma could still be a dark horse, but the SEC won't take Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma apparently won't (or can't) leave them behind. I could see the SEC staying at 13 teams for a year until an easy opportunity to get who they want presents itself.
- Assuming the Big XII stays together, minus A&M, what do they do as a 9-team conference? Is that enough to maintain their existing TV contracts, or do they have to expand? I believe I read that they will need to add at least one more team to not negatively affect their TV deals. Obviously before expanding they need to get their house in order. But assuming they do that....the schools come to an agreement on equitable revenue sharing, they agree on how the Longhorn Network can peacefully exist and they get a new commissioner that will look out for everyone rather than just Texas....who do they add, and do they just go to 10 or do they live up to their name and go to 12? And just as important, will they be attractive enough to other schools given all of the recent acrimony? BYU still seems like the obvious addition....they have a significant national following and can easily escape their non-football conference ties. A number of Big XII schools have pushed for TCU, but Texas seems to be set against it....is that one of the compromises UT makes to keep the conference strong? And there are some Big East teams out there that may be willing to jump ship, like Louisville and WV....although that might be the equivalent of jumping off the Titanic and landing in a shark's mouth.
- And speaking of the Big East, what becomes of them? Does TCU stick with them? (the Mountain West has said they will welcome them back) Can they maintain a viable football conference, much less their automatic BCS bid? Have the basketball schools finally had enough of the drama and break away? Their next TV contract was in the early stages of negotiation when this happened....will they even be able to get close to the revenue they originally hoped for, now that Pitt and Syracuse decided to bolt? Can they really expect to just grab more Conference USA schools like they did in 2003 and move on? And what happens going forward (perhaps as soon as next year) when expansion comes up again, and some of their more attractive schools are again targets?
Still a lot of things to work out over the next several weeks.
09-23-2011 12:13 PM #205
I agree that he ACC will hold off until they get a distinct impression from Notre Dame that the Irish are not joining. UConn and Rutgers will most likely be 15 & 16 if the ACC decides to go to 16.
The 14th team for the SEC is an interesting thing to consider. I felt that WVU would have a good chance, but they were stiff-armed. Missouri could join the SEC, but I believe that they prefer to stay in the BIG 12, unless an invite comes from the BIG 10. So, while Louisville might appear to be a solid choice, they recently pledged to stay with the Big East... although a pledge may get overlooked were the SEC extending their hand. I think Louisville has the best chance at this point.
A Big 12 and Big East merger is possible, although rumors persist that Texas wants no part of TCU. Who knows if it's true. Regardless, I think both conferences will survive... for now.
The BIG Tumultuous
The Hanging By a Thread Conference
09-23-2011 01:38 PM #206
09-24-2011 01:28 PM #207That probably will not happen. One insider said the league is not focused on any Conference USA school and suggested the Big East will play to its strength and zero in on top-flight hoops schools.
I don't think this whole this is over yet. I don't see 4 x 16 anytime soon, but the Big East/Big XII will get itself straightened out.
09-26-2011 04:01 PM #208
Now that Texas A&M to the SEC is official, we can now wait and see how serious the Missouri rumors were.
Meanwhile, more good news for the ACC (I don't have access to the whole article):
Just three weeks into a new TV deal that already is considered well below market value, the Atlantic Coast Conference is getting a mulligan. The conference is adding Big East Conference schools Syracuse and Pittsburgh, which will give it another crack at negotiating its media rights...
09-26-2011 04:48 PM #209
09-26-2011 05:07 PM #210
And the ACC will definitely have to exercise patience if they want a shot at Notre Dame. The Catch-22 is that as long as ND has a conference for their other sports, and BCS access, they won't join a conference. On the other hand, the ACC taking Rutgers and UConn could be the move that would ultimately set in motion the chain of events that would force ND to do that....but the ACC would already have 16 teams. I think that's a big reason why the Big Ten is sitting so still for all of this....they'll wait as long as it takes to be in position to add ND.