Future QB Thread

[mweb]

Some guys had an interesting point today and I'm not sure I really agree with it, but I figured I'd get a good argument for or against it on here.

They figured that trading up to draft RG3 would cost draft picks, but would cost about $8m less per year than it will cost to sign Flynn. (I don't agree with those numbers) That $8m they are saying could be used to put better talent around RG3 than Flynn would have.

My counter point is that it costs more money, but then you can surround Flynn with more talent with the 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick you are going to have to give up to trade up and draft, than the $8m is going to buy for RG3.

You could get a starting OL, a starting CB, and a nickel back with those 3 picks, versus the ONE NFL starter you will get in FA for $8m.

You could get that out of those 3 picks, but it's far from a sure thing. You could also potentially get more than one starter in free agency with 8 million per year, or maybe a starter and the nickel back.

[allstar1579]

You could get that out of those 3 picks, but it's far from a sure thing. You could also potentially get more than one starter in free agency with 8 million per year, or maybe a starter and the nickel back.

I could see maybe a starter and a nickel back, but you are looking at $4m a piece for that? What kind of starters in FA are signing for $4m per? (genuinely asking). It is a little risk, but these days 1st and 2nd rounders are usually starters right away, and 3rds can be too.

Like I said, don't feel SUPER strongly against it, I'm just inclined to think we'd get more out of the 3 picks and Flynn than RG3 and some mid-range FA.

[mweb]

I could see maybe a starter and a nickel back, but you are looking at $4m a piece for that? What kind of starters in FA are signing for $4m per? (genuinely asking). It is a little risk, but these days 1st and 2nd rounders are usually starters right away, and 3rds can be too.

Like I said, don't feel SUPER strongly against it, I'm just inclined to think we'd get more out of the 3 picks and Flynn than RG3 and some mid-range FA.

This isn't meant to get into a Carlos Rodgers discussion, but he cost the Niners 2.13 million this year. Even though you dislike him, he was considered a good nickel back at the least when he signed that deal. Guys like Cofield, Bowen, Brown, and Atogwe cost 5-6 million a year even if they were kept throughout the whole contract, which doesn't happen often. Other than Atogwe, they were guys that were around 4-4.5 million cap hits last year. Chester was at 2.5 last year and 3.5 next year. Josh Wilson is a 4.5 guy.

We can debate these contracts, but I think it shows that there are some solid guys available for 3-5 million a year.

And the Skins success rate with 2nd and 3rd rounders hasn't been great. Fred Davis is quite good, but it took him a while to get consistent PT, and that was increased by Cooley getting hurt.

[Floater]

Flynn is just fools gold to me. Money is not a big issue for the Skins. Get RG3. FA is pretty deep this year for some of the Skins needs.

[allstar1579]

This isn't meant to get into a Carlos Rodgers discussion, but he cost the Niners 2.13 million this year. Even though you dislike him, he was considered a good nickel back at the least when he signed that deal. Guys like Cofield, Bowen, Brown, and Atogwe cost 5-6 million a year even if they were kept throughout the whole contract, which doesn't happen often. Other than Atogwe, they were guys that were around 4-4.5 million cap hits last year. Chester was at 2.5 last year and 3.5 next year. Josh Wilson is a 4.5 guy.

We can debate these contracts, but I think it shows that there are some solid guys available for 3-5 million a year.

And the Skins success rate with 2nd and 3rd rounders hasn't been great. Fred Davis is quite good, but it took him a while to get consistent PT, and that was increased by Cooley getting hurt.

Yeah, that's why I said I could see getting a nickel and another player, but that would take some really good shopping. I think Rogers is kind of a fluke example, because he took a hit money-wise because he had trouble catching the ball here. He went out there and had a great year, and now will get some pretty big money for it. In a perfect world these days, Wilson would be a nickel back, where the nickel is almost a starting position against these teams with athletic TE and 2-3 big, fast wideouts.

I think we get better value out of a QB plus a first, second and third, but that takes some good drafting. At an $8m figure I think it's 6 in one hand half dozen in the other, BUT I think their $8m figure is off, I don't think Flynn gets that much, so I think it's closer to $6m, which I'm not sure gets you two additional starters. With the new TV contract, players are going to be asking for more money and not coming down off it.

I agree about the 2nd/3rds but it is a new regime since the cluster- that was that 2008 draft, and they did a pretty good job last year I think.

[mweb]

I don't think it would take some really good shopping. I think I just showed that it's not that hard to get a solid player for around 4 million.

And yeah, Rodgers value was hurt, but he was still viewed as at least a solid nickel back.

[allstar1579]

I don't think it would take some really good shopping. I think I just showed that it's not that hard to get a solid player for around 4 million.

And yeah, Rodgers value was hurt, but he was still viewed as at least a solid nickel back.

Yes, I never argued that, but you are not going to get 3 of them for $8m, and especially not $6m if that ends up being the difference in contracts.

[mweb]

Yes, I never argued that, but you are not going to get 3 of them for $8m, and especially not $6m if that ends up being the difference in contracts.

Actually you did state that they could only get one starter for 8 million, then it was maybe a starter and a nickel back. I'm saying you can get two starters for that or a starter and a nickel back depending on what makes more sense.

Anyway, sure, it would take some great shopping to get 3 guys for 8 million, but it would also take great drafting to get 3 starters out of the first 3 picks. At least guys that start within the first year or two.

[hoosiers]

Actually you did state that they could only get one starter for 8 million, then it was maybe a starter and a nickel back. I'm saying you can get two starters for that or a starter and a nickel back depending on what makes more sense.

Anyway, sure, it would take some great shopping to get 3 guys for 8 million, but it would also take great drafting to get 3 starters out of the first 3 picks. At least guys that start within the first year or two.

As high as we are drafting, I am not sure it is so difficult - especially if we dropped down this year in the first round and moved up from our second rounder to get a top 12 pick and another around 25. There should be two starters there and we would just need to find one more over the remaining picks. Last year, we picked up Kerrigan, Hankerson and Helu and could have a few more start in 2012 first game (not sure when we picked up Riley and some others) and we were missing picks in that draft. I would be pretty disappointed with our haul this year if we did not find three starters in the 2012 draft unless we package picks to move up.

I think the Skins also have some extra fifth rounders in 2012 from deal McNabb and Haynesworth. Maybe this will provide some flexibility for moving up as necessary in the second to fourth rounds if deemed necessary.

[mweb]

As high as we are drafting, I am not sure it is so difficult - especially if we dropped down this year in the first round and moved up from our second rounder to get a top 12 pick and another around 25. There should be two starters there and we would just need to find one more over the remaining picks. Last year, we picked up Kerrigan, Hankerson and Helu and could have a few more start in 2012 first game (not sure when we picked up Riley and some others) and we were missing picks in that draft. I would be pretty disappointed with our haul this year if we did not find three starters in the 2012 draft unless we package picks to move up.

I think the Skins also have some extra fifth rounders in 2012 from deal McNabb and Haynesworth. Maybe this will provide some flexibility for moving up as necessary in the second to fourth rounds if deemed necessary.

Yeah, they should get 3 starters in the draft, but they may not come from the first 3 picks and they may not start the first year or two or even three.

[mweb]

Yes, I never argued that, but you are not going to get 3 of them for $8m, and especially not $6m if that ends up being the difference in contracts.

Oh, and lets add the cost of the picks too.

Flynn plus the 3 picks may be something like 18 million.

Griffin by himself should be around 5-5.5 million.

So that leaves around 12-13 million extra.

So 12-13M for free agents or the first 3 picks.

I'd take the picks, but this makes it closer.

I'd take RGIII over Flynn without considering the loss of picks.

It's a tough call.

[Don Quixote]

So, read these tea leaves (Manning)....

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/75...ublic-comments

[Floater]

[Birds of B'more]

Brandon Weeden, QB, Okla St.- There were a lot of questions about Weeden's ability. He played in a high octane numbers producing offense at Oklahoma State and he threw to arguably the best WR in college football for two years. Weeden did as well as he could have hoped to do this week. He was a 2nd or 3rd rounder coming into the week, coming out I think there is a decent chance he pulls a Christian Ponder and finds himself in the first round(Mike Shanahan couldnt say enough good things about him), at worst he is a second round pick.

LINK

[Floater]

At this point, I think Manning would rather retire than play for another team. Hell, I doubt he can even play next year at all according to some reports.