Ryan Adams #18 Prospect

[Tony-OH]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/articl...ms-18-prospect

[Frobby]

I think my problem with ranking Adams this low is that he was ranked 11th last year, and I don't see what he did in 2011 to warrant dropping 7 spots. Offensively, he put up very solid numbers in AAA, and at the major league level he put up a solid BA and a decent OBP; only a little power was lacking but the sample wasn't really big enough to downgrade him for that. So, as I see it, he did nothing to downgrade his ranking as an offensive player in 2011. Defensively, he was by all accounts much improved from previous years, and during his stint in the majors, he was maybe a below average as a defender, but far from embarassing out there. So, why is he a lower-ranked prospect in 2011 than he was in 2010? Is it just a matter of he has run out of time to show he can improve himself to the point of being a major league starter? Because he's closer now than he was a year ago, IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

I think my problem with ranking Adams this low is that he was ranked 11th last year, and I don't see what he did in 2011 to warrant dropping 7 spots. Offensively, he put up very solid numbers in AAA, and at the major league level he put up a solid BA and a decent OBP; only a little power was lacking but the sample wasn't really big enough to downgrade him for that. So, as I see it, he did nothing to downgrade his ranking as an offensive player in 2011. Defensively, he was by all accounts much improved from previous years, and during his stint in the majors, he was maybe a below average as a defender, but far from embarassing out there. So, why is he a lower-ranked prospect in 2011 than he was in 2010? Is it just a matter of he has run out of time to show he can improve himself to the point of being a major league starter? Because he's closer now than he was a year ago, IMO.

You can't make the case where a bunch of guys passed him either.

[Tony-OH]

I think my problem with ranking Adams this low is that he was ranked 11th last year, and I don't see what he did in 2011 to warrant dropping 7 spots. Offensively, he put up very solid numbers in AAA, and at the major league level he put up a solid BA and a decent OBP; only a little power was lacking but the sample wasn't really big enough to downgrade him for that. So, as I see it, he did nothing to downgrade his ranking as an offensive player in 2011. Defensively, he was by all accounts much improved from previous years, and during his stint in the majors, he was maybe a below average as a defender, but far from embarassing out there. So, why is he a lower-ranked prospect in 2011 than he was in 2010? Is it just a matter of he has run out of time to show he can improve himself to the point of being a major league starter? Because he's closer now than he was a year ago, IMO.

His plate discipline didn't improve, his power didn't emerge (lack of power in Baltimore as well as in AAA and it's wasn't Harbor Park where he actually hit quite well). I don't see him as an every day second baseman and he doesn't have do anything extraordinary to warrant any extended playing time in the major leagues. As for his defense, he has improved a lot, but he also had a tremendous amount of ground to make up. He's no longer a butcher at second base, but he's still prone to some mental errors out there and he's still a below average ML second baseman defensively.

As for the guys ahead of him, I just feel they have more upside or a better chance of contributing at the major league level. I'd like to see Adams cut down on the K';s, walk more and hit for more power, then I could see him as a poor man's Dan Uggla. He's still got potential, hence his inclusion still on the prospects list, I just don't see a lot that screams out to me future everyday second baseman and he really doesn't have the defensive skills to be a super utility guy. Maybe he could end up a Ty Wigginton-type guy and he could pick up some more power and end up a Casey Blake type bat, but I just liked the other guys more.

[Lucky Jim]

I think my problem with ranking Adams this low is that he was ranked 11th last year, and I don't see what he did in 2011 to warrant dropping 7 spots. Offensively, he put up very solid numbers in AAA, and at the major league level he put up a solid BA and a decent OBP; only a little power was lacking but the sample wasn't really big enough to downgrade him for that. So, as I see it, he did nothing to downgrade his ranking as an offensive player in 2011. Defensively, he was by all accounts much improved from previous years, and during his stint in the majors, he was maybe a below average as a defender, but far from embarassing out there. So, why is he a lower-ranked prospect in 2011 than he was in 2010? Is it just a matter of he has run out of time to show he can improve himself to the point of being a major league starter? Because he's closer now than he was a year ago, IMO.

His plate discipline didn't improve, his power didn't emerge (lack of power in Baltimore as well as in AAA and it's wasn't Harbor Park where he actually hit quite well). I don't see him as an every day second baseman and he doesn't have do anything extraordinary to warrant any extended playing time in the major leagues. As for his defense, he has improved a lot, but he also had a tremendous amount of ground to make up. He's no longer a butcher at second base, but he's still prone to some mental errors out there and he's still a below average ML second baseman defensively.

As for the guys ahead of him, I just feel they have more upside or a better chance of contributing at the major league level. I'd like to see Adams cut down on the K';s, walk more and hit for more power, then I could see him as a poor man's Dan Uggla. He's still got potential, hence his inclusion still on the prospects list, I just don't see a lot that screams out to me future everyday second baseman and he really doesn't have the defensive skills to be a super utility guy. Maybe he could end up a Ty Wigginton-type guy and he could pick up some more power and end up a Casey Blake type bat, but I just liked the other guys more.

It appears to me that - for now - we're in the speculative part of a prospect cycle. (In the literal sense, not in a critical way.) The assets on hand may have value, but it's confined within a narrow band of "spare parts" type stuff. I think this was detectable early on, w/ the top-10. But it's not a problem: the proof is in the pudding, and (as I wrote earlier) next year is going to tell us a lot. We should all be hoping that our emphasis on upside is followed up w/ empirical validation as they move up the chain.

I appreciate the thorough write-ups, btw. No one can argue that you don't lay out exactly why you place people where they are.*


*That said, I expect Townsend to do well this year, and Adams to find a home elsewhere. Buck may not like him - and we know that's a death knell - but his bat will play somewhere.

[srock]

He hit lefties (.872 OPS) better than righties (.767) and actually hit much better at home (.921 OPS) than away (.683)

Is he a 2B platoon option?

Andino splits are similar (less good obviously) so he isn't a platoon partner.

What about Roberts ?

Brian will likely need more rest assuming he comes back. Could just give him the day off vs. LHP.

[Tony-OH]

This is kind of a follow-up to my post in the "Who are the #17 and #18 prospects thread," but for those who think Adams should be higher or his bat will play in the major leagues, who is his major league comp? What player do you think his skill set most likely resembles? If you find that guy, then go back and review his minor league numbers and see if they match closely with Adams. Make sure to look at age vs level, and pay close attention to his walk and K percentages per PA and then sprinkle in the OPS for good measure.

I do all of this before I even take into consideration what my own scouting and the scouting reports of others say. Trust me, I don't just wing these placements. That doesn't mean they may not end up wrong, but please know it's not as simple as "he was this number last year so he should be lower if he didn't do anything to warrant being lowered". The complexity of where a guy is placed goes much deeper than that and in fact, I don't even consider where they were ranked last year because I go off the total picture which includes his current development or lack thereof which may or may not show up in the stats.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Is he a 2B platoon option?

Andino splits are similar (less good obviously) so he isn't a platoon partner.

What about Roberts ?

Brian will likely need more rest assuming he comes back. Could just give him the day off vs. LHP.

Wow, those splits are higher than I thought. That's last year in AAA?

[Lucky Jim]

This is kind of a follow-up to my post in the "Who are the #17 and #18 prospects thread," but for those who think Adams should be higher or his bat will play in the major leagues, who is his major league comp? What player do you think his skill set most likely resembles? If you find that guy, then go back and review his minor league numbers and see if they match closely with Adams. Make sure to look at age vs level, and pay close attention to his walk and K percentages per PA and then sprinkle in the OPS for good measure.

I do all of this before I even take into consideration what my own scouting and the scouting reports of others say. Trust me, I don't just wing these placements. That doesn't mean they may not end up wrong, but please know it's not as simple as "he was this number last year so he should be lower if he didn't do anything to warrant being lowered". The complexity of where a guy is placed goes much deeper than that and in fact, I don't even consider where they were ranked last year because I go off the total picture which includes his current development or lack thereof which may or may not show up in the stats.

Justin Turner? (Slightly better in K- and BB- rate, but he's my basic MLB comp.)

[srock]

Wow, those splits are higher than I thought. That's last year in AAA?

Those are Tony's numbers from the write-up. I presume its AAA.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Justin Turner?

I'd say Adams has better range and more power potential than Turner. He'd potentially be a better defender at second imo. Turner doesn't have a ridiculous K rate either. They are similar in a lot of respects though.

[Lucky Jim]

I'd say Adams has better range and more power potential than Turner. He'd potentially be a better defender at second imo. Turner doesn't have a ridiculous K rate either. They are similar in a lot of respects though.

Yeah. I edited. Didn't want it to seem they're a carbon-copy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Those are Tony's numbers from the write-up. I presume its AAA.

Never mind. I misread this. That said, those splits are suprising.

[Tony-OH]

Justin Turner? (Slightly better in K- and BB- rate, but he's my basic MLB comp.)

Turner is not a bad comp, but his plate discipline was always better than Adams. Also I'd argue that we need to do better than a 0.3 WAR player at second base. I fully believe Adams could be a replacement level second baseman, but ultimately teams should be focused on more at each position.

[Lucky Jim]

Turner is not a bad comp, but his plate discipline was always better than Adams. Also I'd argue that we need to do better than a 0.3 WAR player at second base. I fully believe Adams could be a replacement level second baseman, but ultimately teams should be focused on more at each position.

Oh - definitely. I'm not, in any way, arguing that I think he's an upper-division starter, though I imagine he might be capable of a few years w/ a 1.5 WAR. I do think that his gap power and solid contact skills could mean he's a viable bench-piece (as a 2B/3B) for a decent team, though. We've got Andino, ideally, in that role right now, and he may prove to be a better fit, but coming off the bench I sort-of like Adams' upside with the bat a bit more. (Lofty K-rate be damned.)