How much more upside do you think Jones has?

[Frobby]

In a lot of the posts about Adam Jones, I read statements like "he still has a lot of upside." So my question is, exactly how much upside do you think he has?

Jones has been playing for 4 full seasons.

2008: .270/.311/.400, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 86 OPS+.
2009: .277/.335/.457, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 105 OPS+
2010: .284/.325/.442, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 108 OPS+
2011: .280/.319/.466, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 114 OPS+

To me, it's a pretty consistent performance. You have to like the fact that his OPS+ has increased every year. Yet, you can't like the fact that his OBP peaked in 2009 and his pitch selectivity hasn't really improved at all. With 2400 PA under his belt, you'd have to be pretty optimistic to think he is going to learn to lay off breaking stuff in the dirt with 2 strikes.

I personally think we will see a lot of seasons like the last 3, and maybe a couple where he gets his OPS in the .825ish range by having a slightly better BA and a few extra homers. I don't see Jones exploding into .850+ territory.

What's your view?

[Sports Guy]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...unteto01.shtml

That's what I expect his career to be...Notice 2009. He has that kind of upside of one year. But overall, the upside has likely already been meant in terms of what you will see on a consistent basis.

[waroriole]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...unteto01.shtml

That's what I expect his career to be...Notice 2009. He has that kind of upside of one year. But overall, the upside has likely already been meant in terms of what you will see on a consistent basis.

I agree. It would be real nice if we could trade him during, or right after, that kind of season.

[GoldGlove21]

I think that Jones' upside as far as the Orioles go is the return that he brings us when he is traded.

[CA-ORIOLE]

In a lot of the posts about Adam Jones, I read statements like "he still has a lot of upside." So my question is, exactly how much upside do you think he has?

Jones has been playing for 4 full seasons.

2008: .270/.311/.400, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 86 OPS+.
2009: .277/.335/.457, 19 HR, 70 RBI, 105 OPS+
2010: .284/.325/.442, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 108 OPS+
2011: .280/.319/.466, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 114 OPS+

To me, it's a pretty consistent performance. You have to like the fact that his OPS+ has increased every year. Yet, you can't like the fact that his OBP peaked in 2009 and his pitch selectivity hasn't really improved at all. With 2400 PA under his belt, you'd have to be pretty optimistic to think he is going to learn to lay off breaking stuff in the dirt with 2 strikes.

I personally think we will see a lot of seasons like the last 3, and maybe a couple where he gets his OPS in the .825ish range by having a slightly better BA and a few extra homers. I don't see Jones exploding into .850+ territory.

What's your view?

A potential 120-125 OPS+ player who might be 1 dWAR better as a corner OF than he is in CF. Maybe a consistent 3.5 - 4 WAR player in a best case scenario.

[markdublya]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...unteto01.shtml

That's what I expect his career to be...Notice 2009. He has that kind of upside of one year. But overall, the upside has likely already been meant in terms of what you will see on a consistent basis.

Yep, somewhere along the Hunter/Mike Cameron continuum.

[jamalshw]

I really don't see him getting too much better. I don't see him at a 30 HR guy so I don't see much upside in his slugging aside from a handful more XBH from where it was in 2011, and I doubt you will ever see an OBP higher than what we put up in 2009.

That said, I guess my projected peak for Jones would be:

.285/.335/.475

That would be about an OPS of .810.

[GoldGlove21]

I really don't see him getting too much better. I don't see him at a 30 HR guy so I don't see much upside in his slugging aside from a handful more XBH from where it was in 2011, and I doubt you will ever see an OBP higher than what we put up in 2009.

That said, I guess my projected peak for Jones would be:

.285/.335/.475

That would be about an OPS of .810.

More doubles could increase slugging too, but I think Jones could be a 26-32 homerun guy while batting .285 or so. I think an .850 OPS is his high value mark, but .850 was tied for the 34th highest OPS in all of baseball last season. .850 is what Evan Longoria, Victor Martinez and Todd Helton went for last season. I think that dealing Jones for as many young prospects we can get is the smart way for us to go at this point.

[Frobby]

More doubles could increase slugging too, but I think Jones could be a 26-32 homerun guy while batting .285 or so. I think an .850 OPS is his high value mark, but .850 was tied for the 34th highest OPS in all of baseball last season. .850 is what Evan Longoria, Victor Martinez and Todd Helton went for last season. I think that dealing Jones for as many young prospects we can get is the smart way for us to go at this point.

You have to consider the position Jones plays and other elements in the equation. Hitting .850 as a CF in OPACY is quite different from hitting .850 as a 1B at Coors Field.

Anyway, I don't want to turn this into a "should Jones be traded" thread. There are several of thos going. The specific purpose of this thread is to solicit views about how good Jones' offense will be over the next few years. Nothing more (though opinions on that obviously feed into the trade discussion).

[El Gordo]

Unless the plate discipline improves dramatically he wont do much better than .800 OPS IMO.He could improve on defense. Mike Cameron is still a plus defender at 40. It's not because his speed and athleticism exceeds Jones', it's becuase of his positioning, reads and first step. Jones has the capability to improve on these things.

[ccbird]

For the most part he is what has been for the last few years. Of course, you could see fluctuation from year to year but I don't think there is another step and tier he is going to reach for a 3-5 year portion of his career.

[Moose Milligan]

I could see him popping off a few 30 homer seasons...but for the most part I think he is what he is right now. That on base percentage will never crack .340...and if it does for some reason, it'll be driven by batting average, not because he got an increase in plate discipline and pitch selection.

[JayThomas]

I could see him popping off a few 30 homer seasons...but for the most part I think he is what he is right now. That on base percentage will never crack .340...and if it does for some reason, it'll be driven by batting average, not because he got an increase in plate discipline and pitch selection.

It's hard for me to imagine him pulling off multiple 30-hr seasons. Not because he doesn't have the power, but because he has such a huge blind spot in his strike zone judgement. I just don't see how he's going to get that many mistake-type pitches to hammer. How can he not be fed a steady diet of breaking balls low and away? Now if he can/could learn to master that aspect of hitting, he'd be a monster offensively. As it is, that effects not only his batting average, but his walk rate, and I contend that it will increasingly effect his power numbers because he'll see fewer and fewer fastballs and balls elsewhere in the zone. So besides being able to extend his contract favorably, that's really the driving question. Can and will Adam learn to acceptably recognize breaking balls low and away and will he improve on controlling the strike zone out there?

[CA-ORIOLE]

It's hard for me to imagine him pulling off multiple 30-hr seasons. Not because he doesn't have the power, but because he has such a huge blind spot in his strike zone judgement. I just don't see how he's going to get that many mistake-type pitches to hammer. How can he not be fed a steady diet of breaking balls low and away? Now if he can/could learn to master that aspect of hitting, he'd be a monster offensively. As it is, that effects not only his batting average, but his walk rate, and I contend that it will increasingly effect his power numbers because he'll see fewer and fewer fastballs and balls elsewhere in the zone. So besides being able to extend his contract favorably, that's really the driving question. Can and will Adam learn to acceptably recognize breaking balls low and away and will he improve on controlling the strike zone out there?

I think he's gotten quite a bit better at handling that outside slider/curve. He's always going to be an aggressive hitter though with his OBP driven by his BA. I makes me wonder why he's been so poor against LHP though.

[Lucky Jim]

You have to consider the position Jones plays and other elements in the equation. Hitting .850 as a CF in OPACY is quite different from hitting .850 as a 1B at Coors Field.

Anyway, I don't want to turn this into a "should Jones be traded" thread. There are several of thos going. The specific purpose of this thread is to solicit views about how good Jones' offense will be over the next few years. Nothing more (though opinions on that obviously feed into the trade discussion).

This is true, provided he plays competent MLB CF. He can't slip further.