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  1. #16
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    His OBP has been very close to league avaerage the last 3 years, so it's not actually slipping compared to the league. Of course it's not improving either. I could see his OPS getting into low 800's but not much more than that.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjb View Post
    His OBP has been very close to league avaerage the last 3 years, so it's not actually slipping compared to the league. Of course it's not improving either. I could see his OPS getting into low 800's but not much more than that.
    No idea what his ceiling truly is, the Hunter comps seem very reasonable, but maybe his athleticism translates to more than we have seen? I have liked what I have seen when he is on, when he has his 10 - 15 game stretches of solid hitting. I am hoping for (not predicting, just hoping) more slugging than we have seen and something along a .290/.340/.535 line at his peak. Dreaming? Maybe, but if we are not going to sign the big hitter, one (or several) of ours have to come around.

  3. #18
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    I think he can be a little bit better than last year. IIRC, he got hurt towards the end of the year and his numbers slipped a bit. I think he can put up more HR, 2B, and RBI, the counting numbers, but I think his OPS is generally going to be high 7's or maybe low 8's at best. Because of the poor plate discipline, mainly an inability to take walks, I don't see a big step forward anytime soon.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by RZNJ View Post
    I think he can be a little bit better than last year. IIRC, he got hurt towards the end of the year and his numbers slipped a bit. I think he can put up more HR, 2B, and RBI, the counting numbers, but I think his OPS is generally going to be high 7's or maybe low 8's at best. Because of the poor plate discipline, mainly an inability to take walks, I don't see a big step forward anytime soon.
    This post says it best for me. He hasn't peaked, but I don't believe his numbers will take off into another level; an OPS in the low .800s

  5. #20
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    If Adam Jones walked at the league average rate last season, his OBP would have been higher by about 10 points.

    Patience is the key for him but he needs to do more besides just walking more to reach the expectations I have of him. I think he has the skill to be at about .820-.850 in these next prime years of his career. His eye seems to be his biggest limiting factor but not just in drawing BBs-- even minor increases in selectiveness might cause him to get deeper into counts and see a lot more pitches to drive. That's the biggest thing I'm looking for him to improve on next year.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spy Fox View Post
    If Adam Jones walked at the league average rate last season, his OBP would have been higher by about 10 points.

    Patience is the key for him but he needs to do more besides just walking more to reach the expectations I have of him. I think he has the skill to be at about .820-.850 in these next prime years of his career. His eye seems to be his biggest limiting factor but not just in drawing BBs-- even minor increases in selectiveness might cause him to get deeper into counts and see a lot more pitches to drive. That's the biggest thing I'm looking for him to improve on next year.

    An average Adam Jones season shows 628 plate appearnces with 30 walks. I don't know what average is but I would think 50 or 60 walks would be about average. Seems to me his OBP should go up more than 10 points but I could be wrong. I agree with your idea that it's not just about the walks, it's about getting favorable counts more often.

  7. #22
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    I think he has a little room for improvement in him. There's a chance, entering his 5th full season, that he develops a better eye and lays off some pitches, especially those sliders in the dirt. If he can add a few more walks (29 is pathetic IMO) that would do wonders for him as pitchers would have to challenge him more.

    Oh, and it wouldn't hurt if the FO tried to protect him just a little bit.

    In sum, I think, best case, is an OPS around .830 to .850 -- driven mostly by slugging and a slight increase in OBP due to developing more patience.

    Worst case? What you see is what you get, and frankly that ain't all that bad.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pedro Cerrano View Post
    I think he has a little room for improvement in him. There's a chance, entering his 5th full season, that he develops a better eye and lays off some pitches, especially those sliders in the dirt. If he can add a few more walks (29 is pathetic IMO) that would do wonders for him as pitchers would have to challenge him more.

    Oh, and it wouldn't hurt if the FO tried to protect him just a little bit.

    In sum, I think, best case, is an OPS around .830 to .850 -- driven mostly by slugging and a slight increase in OBP due to developing more patience.

    Worst case? What you see is what you get, and frankly that ain't all that bad.
    This. Like was said, I think he'll improve some, and maybe have a monster season or two in him, but not another level better.

    I thought he did improve a decent amount against the low and away slider this year. He's still not good, but better than 2010 when he was utterly clueless. What I noticed this year is he's a sucker for high heat too. I just don't think his OBP is ever going to improve very much.
    Last edited by scOtt; 12-23-2011 at 01:31 AM. Reason: 2010, not 2009...

  9. #24
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    Would not surprise me in the least to see Adam's best 3/4 seasons in the .870-.910 OPS range. He jumped through the Mariners system as a 1st round HS pick, posting an average OPS above .900 in AAA in his age 20 & 21 seasons. His career .756 OPS will increase about 40 points over the next 5 years (if healthy), IMO.

    Jim Palmer mentioned Dwight Evans a number of times as a comparative he faced as an Oriole. There are a lot of comparable careers linked below that Adam Jones deserves recognition with, when projecting his upside. It's worth mentioning that AJ's age 23 MLB season bests most of these guys (Evans, Hunter, Granderson, Wells, Williams). Out of the comparison group, Winfield and Granderson are the only college draftee's; Bernie Williams is the only amateur FA; Winfield & Evans were not CF's.

    Adam Jones' BR comp is Dave Winfield, but I like the Hunter comps posted on OH for this generation (Torii has a career .800 OPS). Curtis Granderson didn't breakout until his age 26 season, coming out of college (career .837 OPS). The only thing that would lead me to believe that AJ progression's does not reach these other guys ceilings is the directional decline MLB hitters have been going through the last several seasons.

  10. #25
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    I think AJ still has upside to the 120-125 OPS+ range.

    IIRC, even in the last series of the season, he had some of the best at-bats I'd seen from him.

    I think his pitch recognition will kick up a notch to improve the BBs, lower the Ks and improve the general stats enough to make him a well-above average performer in CF.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oriolidae85 View Post
    Would not surprise me in the least to see Adam's best 3/4 seasons in the .870-.910 OPS range. He jumped through the Mariners system as a 1st round HS pick, posting an average OPS above .900 in AAA in his age 20 & 21 seasons. His career .756 OPS will increase about 40 points over the next 5 years (if healthy), IMO.

    Jim Palmer mentioned Dwight Evans a number of times as a comparative he faced as an Oriole. There are a lot of comparable careers linked below that Adam Jones deserves recognition with, when projecting his upside. It's worth mentioning that AJ's age 23 MLB season bests most of these guys (Evans, Hunter, Granderson, Wells, Williams). Out of the comparison group, Winfield and Granderson are the only college draftee's; Bernie Williams is the only amateur FA; Winfield & Evans were not CF's.

    Adam Jones' BR comp is Dave Winfield, but I like the Hunter comps posted on OH for this generation (Torii has a career .800 OPS). Curtis Granderson didn't breakout until his age 26 season, coming out of college (career .837 OPS). The only thing that would lead me to believe that AJ progression's does not reach these other guys ceilings is the directional decline MLB hitters have been going through the last several seasons.
    I will be shocked if he can put up 4 years with an .870 OPS.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by RZNJ View Post
    An average Adam Jones season shows 628 plate appearnces with 30 walks. I don't know what average is but I would think 50 or 60 walks would be about average. Seems to me his OBP should go up more than 10 points but I could be wrong. I agree with your idea that it's not just about the walks, it's about getting favorable counts more often.
    You're right, actually. I was compensating for the fact that some of his extra walks would not replace outs, but would replace hits. I did a percentage wrong though.

    In ~620 PAs, an average hitter would draw 50-55 walks, which would cause a OBP jump of about 30 points even accounting for the fact that some of those walks would be replacing hits.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spy Fox View Post
    If Adam Jones walked at the league average rate last season, his OBP would have been higher by about 10 points.

    Patience is the key for him but he needs to do more besides just walking more to reach the expectations I have of him. I think he has the skill to be at about .820-.850 in these next prime years of his career. His eye seems to be his biggest limiting factor but not just in drawing BBs-- even minor increases in selectiveness might cause him to get deeper into counts and see a lot more pitches to drive. That's the biggest thing I'm looking for him to improve on next year.
    Wait, he walked at the league average. He walked 29/618 plat appearances. That's like .04%, Am I the only one who thinks that is low?

  14. #29
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    One thing that I think is worth mentioning is that Jones had his OPS in the .810-.820 range for a good portion of last year. He had an .815 OPS as of August 24, at which time he had played 126 of 127 games. He had an injury then (thumb?), missed 3 games, came back and went into a slump, starting only 21 of the final 35 games and posting a .600 OPS in that stretch to finish at .785. But for those injuries towards the end, he might well have finished in the .810-.820 range.

    That said, injuries are a part of the game, and Jones seems to get banged up at times every year.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by RZNJ View Post
    I think he can be a little bit better than last year. IIRC, he got hurt towards the end of the year and his numbers slipped a bit. I think he can put up more HR, 2B, and RBI, the counting numbers, but I think his OPS is generally going to be high 7's or maybe low 8's at best. Because of the poor plate discipline, mainly an inability to take walks, I don't see a big step forward anytime soon.
    Co-signed, with additional thought that I'm not sure to what extent there is more value in there with regards to improving defense. I don't know enough about what he does now, and what he might be able to do, to increase his value in CF.

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