Our good friends over at Baseballinstinct are putting out their top 360 prospects in baseball. might be interesting to see where some of the O's prospects end up.
http://baseballinstinct.com/2012/01/...ts-320-to-281/
Lino at 317. That's very consistent with being a top 10 player for a team with a below average farm system.
Interesting though that they say..."the O's have quietly put together a nice system."
Yikes...Originally Posted by Prayin4Reign
And Dan Klein at 337.
John Sickels also said:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/...pects-for-2012This isn't a great system and there is a distinct lack of star potential once you get past the top three, but it is NOT empty and progress has been made in recent years. There is good depth in Grade B-/C+ types, and some of them (and some of the Grade Cs) are young and/or projectable enough to rank higher next year with proper development.
From my perspective, the biggest problem in the system is the lack of talent at upper levels of the minors. The overall system is somewhat below average, but the upper levels are way below average right now.
I think the issue with Sickel's take is that, excluding Chicago (A) and maybe Houston, you can find low-level A, complex league and rookie ball prospects that could rank higher with proper development in essentially any organization. I agree with your perspective above, with the addendum that the holes in the upper-level is a problem compounded by the fact that lower-level impact talent is by its nature less valuable than higher-level impact talent.
Put another way, while Baltimore's top 3 is a good top 3 with huge upside, there is more potential volatility in that group than you'd generally want to see in your top 3 prospects, based solely on level and distance from the Majors.
Given likely lack of quality prospects graduating to the majors this year, a good 2012 draft and good year in player development could have us as a fringe top 10 system entering 2013 with four or more top 100 prospects. This could be further supported if net/net we add prospects via trade.
Our system will be much more balanced next year and in 2013 I think there may exist a steady annual process of rookies getting time in Bmore that we have been waiting for.
I think it's highly unlikely Baltimore is a fringe top 10 system at this time next year, but it would be great for the org if all of those prospects in house could take steps forward with minimal struggles. I think I'd settle for a middle-of-the-road org a year from now, given how far behind the O's are, and even that seems highly unlikely given what we know about the hit rate for young prospects in general (and more specifically, the O's track record for developing young prospects).
A lot rides on how players who were hurt for all or part of 2011 rebound in 2012. I put Klein, R. Berry, Townsend, Hobgood, Mummey and Coffey in that category, and I am sure there are others I am forgetting.
As an aside, is baseball instinct the official prospect site supported by the Hangout? I've seen Tony link it a few times and others following suit.
Agreed. But to be clear, I don't consider that support for there being upside in the system or any strong likelihood that the Orioles will see significant growth from these players, or any others not listed.
I mean, I remember this argument two years ago, only then it was "wait until the 2009 draft class is healthy and hitting their stride -- the system could make a big jump."
We don't have an "official prospect site" that we support. I've helped them out with some analysis of Orioles prospects and they've asked me a few times to promote some stuff of theirs.
Thanks, Tony. Aside from your work with them, is there any other reason to pay particular attention to the site? I clicked around it some but couldn't find any info on the authors. There are so many prospects sites sprouting up that it's sometimes tough to figure out who is aggregating and who is actually looking at the players. Their top 360 writeups are really bare-bones, though I guess it would be a lot of work to give in depth reports on 360 minor leaguers.
Really? I'm not sure how much it would take to satisfy hoosers' thoughts.
1. Machado, Schoop, Bundy perform well.
2. Add a top 4 talent in the next draft.
3. Add one highly rated Int'l player...say it's Soler or a Inoa/Sano type.
4. Trade Jones and net one really nice prospect like Salcedo.
In theory, you're looking at 5-6 top 100 guys if things don't blow up in our face, without considering the rest.
Assuming the standard number of pops and flame outs throughout the rest of the system, that sounds like the definition of a fringe top 10 system to me. 5-6 highly rated guys followed by many unprovens with limited upside, but a couple still with good upside.
Maybe we're splitting hairs. The difference between the #10 system and the #15 system is probably pretty miniscule. I could also see us not satisfying 1-4 above and still being in the 20's, or hitting the jackpot on 1-4 and a guy like Delmonico/Esposito/Bridwell/Hoes/Lino and being in the 5-8 range. I concede in advance that the odds of the latter happening are quite small.
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