HHP: Six Man Rotation

[srock]

Could the Orioles attempt a six man rotation in 2012?

Should they?

Things to consider:

Orioles have a good number of starting pitchers.
Do not have any top tier starting pitchers.
Do not have any innings eaters. (Guthrie kinda sorta)
Do have two pitchers accustomed to a 6 man rotation (Chen and Wada)

Look at this data: (don't know why there is a big space)

Player	Max IP	Career ERA+
Guthrie	209	105
Britton	154	90
Arrieta	150 (miL)	85
Matusz	175	77 (98 before 2011)
Simon	115	81
Hunter	128 (163 miL 08)	99
Bergesen	170	92
Tillman	174 (BAL+miL)	77
Wada	184	2.88 (ERA)
Chen	188	2.48 (ERA)

There are 10 starting pitchers. Only 1 (Guthrie) has ever thrown 200 IP in a season. I may have missed if someone threw 200 combined MiL and ML, but still, only 1 has thrown 200+ in the ML.

The two Japanese pitchers top out in the mid 180 IP several times in there careers. They are accustomed to throwing in a 6 man rotation.

Is it wise to attempt to use these 10 pitchers in a 5 man rotation for 162 game season? They (not Chen or Wada) have been in such a system before with poor results. Chen and Wada have succeed in a 6 man rotation throwing 180 innings.Why repeat what has not worked.

Using 6 of these 10 as starters, keeps 4 available in the bullpen or Norfolk to fill in. So there is plenty of depth (not even considering O'Day and Eveland who are really last ditch depth).

Here is a comparison. The Rays had a top notch pitching staff in 2011. All but 14 games were started by there top 5 SP's. That is amazing! Here is how the IP broke down:

Shields: 249
Price: 224
Hellickson: 189
Davis: 184
Niemann: 135
TOTAL: 981
AVG: 196

There is simply no way reasonable way the Orioles can hope to get such production out of 5 SP's in the group above. It would take an unprecedented improvement as a group.

I propose trying something different. Use 6 starting pitchers with the hope of getting 1000 innings this way:

SP 1: 200
SP2: 190
SP3: 180
SP4: 150
SP5: 145
SP6: 135

Obviously hoping to get 162 starts out of 6 pitchers is unlikely as well, but this is a more realistic goal then getting 1000 out of 5.

[Brendan25]

Meh. No thanks.

[Dr. FLK]

The Orioles have trouble finding 3 mediocre starters. I don't want to task them with finding 6.

[srock]

The Orioles have trouble finding 3 mediocre starters. I don't want to task them with finding 6.

My argument is they have 6-8 mediocre starters, so lets run with that instead of hoping 3 of them magically turn into good starters.

[Dr. FLK]

My argument is they have 6-8 mediocre starters, so lets run with that instead of hoping 3 of them magically turn into good starters.

Let's go with the best 5. The rest can either fight for time in the bullpen or get innings in AAA. I don't think 3 of them will magically turn into good starters, but I don't see what's gained by increasing the percentage of games started by guys who aren't any good.

[El Gordo]

I like to see them try something new. If they keep the pitchers to a higher pitch count, and let them pitch in relief on their throw days, it's worth a try IMO.