HHP: Six Man Rotation

[srock]

Could the Orioles attempt a six man rotation in 2012?

Should they?

Things to consider:

Orioles have a good number of starting pitchers.
Do not have any top tier starting pitchers.
Do not have any innings eaters. (Guthrie kinda sorta)
Do have two pitchers accustomed to a 6 man rotation (Chen and Wada)

Look at this data: (don't know why there is a big space)

Player	Max IP	Career ERA+
Guthrie	209	105
Britton	154	90
Arrieta	150 (miL)	85
Matusz	175	77 (98 before 2011)
Simon	115	81
Hunter	128 (163 miL 08)	99
Bergesen	170	92
Tillman	174 (BAL+miL)	77
Wada	184	2.88 (ERA)
Chen	188	2.48 (ERA)

There are 10 starting pitchers. Only 1 (Guthrie) has ever thrown 200 IP in a season. I may have missed if someone threw 200 combined MiL and ML, but still, only 1 has thrown 200+ in the ML.

The two Japanese pitchers top out in the mid 180 IP several times in there careers. They are accustomed to throwing in a 6 man rotation.

Is it wise to attempt to use these 10 pitchers in a 5 man rotation for 162 game season? They (not Chen or Wada) have been in such a system before with poor results. Chen and Wada have succeed in a 6 man rotation throwing 180 innings.Why repeat what has not worked.

Using 6 of these 10 as starters, keeps 4 available in the bullpen or Norfolk to fill in. So there is plenty of depth (not even considering O'Day and Eveland who are really last ditch depth).

Here is a comparison. The Rays had a top notch pitching staff in 2011. All but 14 games were started by there top 5 SP's. That is amazing! Here is how the IP broke down:

Shields: 249
Price: 224
Hellickson: 189
Davis: 184
Niemann: 135
TOTAL: 981
AVG: 196

There is simply no way reasonable way the Orioles can hope to get such production out of 5 SP's in the group above. It would take an unprecedented improvement as a group.

I propose trying something different. Use 6 starting pitchers with the hope of getting 1000 innings this way:

SP 1: 200
SP2: 190
SP3: 180
SP4: 150
SP5: 145
SP6: 135

Obviously hoping to get 162 starts out of 6 pitchers is unlikely as well, but this is a more realistic goal then getting 1000 out of 5.

[Brendan25]

Meh. No thanks.

[Dr. FLK]

The Orioles have trouble finding 3 mediocre starters. I don't want to task them with finding 6.

[srock]

The Orioles have trouble finding 3 mediocre starters. I don't want to task them with finding 6.

My argument is they have 6-8 mediocre starters, so lets run with that instead of hoping 3 of them magically turn into good starters.

[Dr. FLK]

My argument is they have 6-8 mediocre starters, so lets run with that instead of hoping 3 of them magically turn into good starters.

Let's go with the best 5. The rest can either fight for time in the bullpen or get innings in AAA. I don't think 3 of them will magically turn into good starters, but I don't see what's gained by increasing the percentage of games started by guys who aren't any good.

[El Gordo]

I like to see them try something new. If they keep the pitchers to a higher pitch count, and let them pitch in relief on their throw days, it's worth a try IMO.

[scOtt]

I'm not really in favor of the idea but I did think of a little wrinkle... We could have Guthrie pitch every 5th day. Then the other five guys pitch in order. Get Guts his 200 and 35 starts. Fill the rest of the 1000 innings with the other five guys.

[El Gordo]

I'm not really in favor of the idea but I did think of a little wrinkle... We could have Guthrie pitch every 5th day. Then the other five guys pitch in order. Get Guts his 200 and 35 starts. Fill the rest of the 1000 innings with the other five guys.

How would that work. Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Wada, Guthrie, Hunter, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Guthrie, Wada, Hunter, Britton, Arrieta, Guthrie, Chen, Wada, Hunter, Britton Guthrie? I'd never be able to figure out who's pitching what day.

[wildcard]

No they won't and they shouldn't.

[Lucky Jim]

No they won't and they shouldn't.

This.

Letters.

[WORST OWNER]

No way will we go with a 6 man rotation. I kinda like us with a 4 man rotation gives an extra arm in the pen and more than likely somone who could spot start when needed to give the starters a rest here and there.

[scOtt]

How would that work. Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Wada, Guthrie, Hunter, Britton, Arrieta, Chen, Guthrie, Wada, Hunter, Britton, Arrieta, Guthrie, Chen, Wada, Hunter, Britton Guthrie? I'd never be able to figure out who's pitching what day.

Yeah it would work like you said. Buck could keep it straight.

[eb45]

People said the five-man rotation was ridiculous once as well.

I'm not sure it's a good idea, but why not? Is it a thing with throwing pitchers off with the number of rest days? Something I'm not getting?

[ChipTait]

I've always been intrigued with the idea of keeping appearances up, but pitch counts down. What if you took eight from your list and paired them up (however you like) and tell them they each get 80 pitches per appearance, and they're pitching in a four-tandem rotation. And you still have a four-man bullpen for specialty situations. Crazy?

[jackprac]

People said the five-man rotation was ridiculous once as well.

I'm not sure it's a good idea, but why not? Is it a thing with throwing pitchers off with the number of rest days? Something I'm not getting?

Why not indeed! The Japanese do it, why haven't they gone to a 5 man rotation? There must be a reason why they still do it. As bad as our pitching was last year, isn't it time for some "out of the box" thinking.