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  1. #1
    Frobby is offline Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    HHP: The difference in attitude about the young pitchers compared to a year ago is amazing

    A year ago, the team was coming off two months of great play under Buck and the team ERA was under 4.00 in that span. All you heard all winter was about how all these pitchers have turned the corner, Matusz is on the verge of being an ace, etc. The first week of the season, it appeared it was all coming true. Optimism was at the highest point of any time since 2005.

    Then the pitching fell apart. Matusz was hurt and his preparation was questioned, and he had one of the worst years a starting pitcher ever had. Arrieta was decent but got hurt. Britton was OK but not the no. 2 starter we thought he might be. Bergesen and Tillman made no progress. The back-ups all floundered.

    So, it is not suprising that folks are much more pessimistic about the pitching now than they were at this time last year. But in my opinion, a lot of people are taking it too far.

    Last year, the group of Britton, Tillman, Hunter, Bergesen, Arrieta and Matusz threw 555.2 IP to an ERA of 5.60. I will venture a guess that this group will be much, much better in 2012. I'd bet they'll throw 100 more innings (despite the presence of Chen and Wada) and will lower their collective ERA by a full run or more. And if I'm wrong, and they don't significantly lower their ERA, someone with a lower ERA will be taking their innings from them.


  2. #2
    NewMarketSean's Avatar
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    Frobby until I see actual prolonged results, I am always going to expect failure. Call it being negative, call it what you will. But I just can't go out on that ledge again and expect different results.

    The anti-Oriole baseball gods and the failures of Peter Angelos as owner have proven this time and time again.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    A year ago, the team was coming off two months of great play under Buck and the team ERA was under 4.00 in that span. All you heard all winter was about how all these pitchers have turned the corner, Matusz is on the verge of being an ace, etc. The first week of the season, it appeared it was all coming true. Optimism was at the highest point of any time since 2005.

    Then the pitching fell apart. Matusz was hurt and his preparation was questioned, and he had one of the worst years a starting pitcher ever had. Arrieta was decent but got hurt. Britton was OK but not the no. 2 starter we thought he might be. Bergesen and Tillman made no progress. The back-ups all floundered.

    So, it is not suprising that folks are much more pessimistic about the pitching now than they were at this time last year. But in my opinion, a lot of people are taking it too far.

    Last year, the group of Britton, Tillman, Hunter, Bergesen, Arrieta and Matusz threw 555.2 IP to an ERA of 5.60. I will venture a guess that this group will be much, much better in 2012. I'd bet they'll throw 100 more innings (despite the presence of Chen and Wada) and will lower their collective ERA by a full run or more. And if I'm wrong, and they don't significantly lower their ERA, someone with a lower ERA will be taking their innings from them.
    I think the competition will be a welcome change for us. Josh Rupe is not fighting for the fourth starter spot.

  4. #4
    NCRaven's Avatar
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    I think we're facing Cavalry fatigue. Tillman, Britton, Matusz, Arrieta and even Bergesen have been seen as the key to our turning things around for the past few seasons. They still are the key and they still haven't turned things around - for themselves in most cases and for the team as a whole, certainly. Still like them all, including the addition of Hunter. But, how can anyone feel confident that this is the season more than one of them begin putting it together and changing this team's fortunes? Possible? Sure. Confident that it will? Uh....

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    33rdst is offline Plus Member since 11/03 All-Star Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by NCRaven View Post
    I think we're facing Cavalry fatigue. Tillman, Britton, Matusz, Arrieta and even Bergesen were the key to our turning things around. They still are the key and they still haven't turned things around - for themselves in most cases and for the team as a whole, certainly. Still like them all, including the addition of Hunter. But, how can anyone feel confident that this is the season more than one of them begin putting it together and changing this team's fortunes? Possible? Sure. Confident that it will? Uh....
    Your post just cleared something up for me. I don't think we can use the word confident and Orioles in the same sentence. Hopeful? Yes. Confident? Not yet. Not now. I think Duquette is doing a lot of things right. So I'm hopeful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    A year ago, the team was coming off two months of great play under Buck and the team ERA was under 4.00 in that span. All you heard all winter was about how all these pitchers have turned the corner, Matusz is on the verge of being an ace, etc. The first week of the season, it appeared it was all coming true. Optimism was at the highest point of any time since 2005.

    Then the pitching fell apart. Matusz was hurt and his preparation was questioned, and he had one of the worst years a starting pitcher ever had. Arrieta was decent but got hurt. Britton was OK but not the no. 2 starter we thought he might be. Bergesen and Tillman made no progress. The back-ups all floundered.

    So, it is not suprising that folks are much more pessimistic about the pitching now than they were at this time last year. But in my opinion, a lot of people are taking it too far.

    Last year, the group of Britton, Tillman, Hunter, Bergesen, Arrieta and Matusz threw 555.2 IP to an ERA of 5.60. I will venture a guess that this group will be much, much better in 2012. I'd bet they'll throw 100 more innings (despite the presence of Chen and Wada) and will lower their collective ERA by a full run or more. And if I'm wrong, and they don't significantly lower their ERA, someone with a lower ERA will be taking their innings from them.
    It would be hard for them to be worse.

    I am less excited about this Orioles season than I ever have been. Living in Florida its getting hard to justify following them. I've bought the MLB package every year for the last 8, no way I buy it this year. I've been an obsessed Fan for over 25 years and they are honestly about to lose me as a day to day follower.

    I doubt the pitchers will be much better.

    Britton will probably do ok, hopefully he can put in an entire season

    Matusz is not someone Im counting on at this point

    Arrieta might get better

    Bergesen is not a ML starter on a good team

    Guthrie will get traded for someone who won't matter

    Tillman does not look like he's going to make it

    Who knows what all of these asian relief pitchers will do. I'm not counting on any of them to be difference makers.

    Cant see any of them keeping their ERA under 4 this year. How are we supposed to get excited about that?

  7. #7
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    This is something I brought up at the blogger forum at fanfest.

    One of the guys from CAmden Chat stated that he liked how DD is addressing pitching unlike AM - I countered that AM DID address pitching and if that pitching had pitched like we all expected it to pitch that AM would still have a job and we wouldn't be talking about this today.

    What DD has done differently is he has gone into depth OVERLOAD, and that is a good thing. With so many arms competing someone will rise to the occasion.

    Instead of Jakubauskas and Atkins and Vandenhurn getting starts it is Chen or Wada.

  8. #8
    Mr Snuffleupagus's Avatar
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    I think it's fair to be skeptical... Here's why.

    Hayden Penn
    Daniel Cabrera
    Adam Loewen
    Sidney Ponson
    Jason Johnson
    Rodrigo Lopez
    John Maine
    Josh Towers
    Rick Bauer
    Eric DuBose
    Kurt Ainsworth
    John Parrish
    Matt Riley
    Brian Burres
    Jim Hoey
    Garrett Olson

    Am I forgetting anyone?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Snuffleupagus View Post
    I think it's fair to be skeptical... Here's why.

    Hayden Penn
    Daniel Cabrera
    Adam Loewen
    Sidney Ponson
    Jason Johnson
    Rodrigo Lopez
    John Maine
    Josh Towers
    Rick Bauer
    Eric DuBose
    Kurt Ainsworth
    John Parrish
    Matt Riley
    Brian Burres
    Jim Hoey
    Garrett Olson

    Am I forgetting anyone?
    this is the year they turn it around man

  10. #10
    Fan4Life's Avatar
    Fan4Life is offline Plus Member Since 06/06 All-Star Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewMarketSean View Post
    Frobby until I see actual prolonged results, I am always going to expect failure. Call it being negative, call it what you will. But I just can't go out on that ledge again and expect different results.

    The anti-Oriole baseball gods and the failures of Peter Angelos as owner have proven this time and time again.
    Amen.. tired of the potential and upside chatter... show me something.

  11. #11
    Lester Freamon's Avatar
    Lester Freamon is offline Plus Member Since 2/08 Major League Starter Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    I'm still pretty optimistic about Britton. But what happened to Matusz last year really threw me for a loop. Of course I realize what Matusz did last year was historically bad and never could have or would have been expected, so I shouldn't apply that to Britton, it's unfair. But I can't help it, it's now in the back of my mind and keeps me from even thinking that Britton will improve, let alone expect it.

    I'd love to see if Arrieta can really perform any differently without the bone spurs. However, I've gone on the record as saying he'll start the year on the DL. I just imagine that once they get into it at Sarasota the arm will get sore and they'll shut him down, or slow him down. Obviously, I hope I'm dead wrong and my hard stance probably has a great deal with me trying to temper my own expectations.

    I like Tommy Hunter, I think he is solid. Again low expectations though.

    Not really expecting anything from Tillman at the ML level but I still realize he's relatively young and could put it together. I'm hoping Peterson can do something to help him. For me anything from Tillman is cake.

    I think Bergeson can potentially be a nice piece out of the pen and since he has shown prolonged flashes in the past I think he can possibly be useful.

    I am VERY interested, and yes even excited, to see what Wada and Chen can do.

  12. #12
    Brendan25's Avatar
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    I do think that if these young pitchers turn it around, this team can compete for the playoffs. If they keep Guthrie. I just need to see prolonged success to feel like that success can last throughout a season. I still believe in the potential of Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz. At some point potential needs to turn into talent however.

  13. #13
    canonfaz's Avatar
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    Radhames Liz?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Snuffleupagus View Post
    I think it's fair to be skeptical... Here's why.

    Hayden Penn
    Daniel Cabrera
    Adam Loewen
    Sidney Ponson
    Jason Johnson
    Rodrigo Lopez
    John Maine
    Josh Towers
    Rick Bauer
    Eric DuBose
    Kurt Ainsworth
    John Parrish
    Matt Riley
    Brian Burres
    Jim Hoey
    Garrett Olson

    Am I forgetting anyone?

  14. #14
    markdublya's Avatar
    markdublya is offline Plus Member since 01/04 Major Leagues Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    For me it isn't pessimism, its very justifiable doubt. I am one of those folks who have no problem with putting some of them back in Norfolk and saying "we know you are better than 2011 showed, we are looking forward to you reminding us and can't wait to have you back."

    Pitch your way back.

    In the meantime I would welcome EJax, a lopsided Burnett trade, Koji cheap, even Cordero. Competition is our friend as fans.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    I will venture a guess that this group will be much, much better in 2012. I'd bet they'll throw 100 more innings (despite the presence of Chen and Wada) and will lower their collective ERA by a full run or more. And if I'm wrong, and they don't significantly lower their ERA, someone with a lower ERA will be taking their innings from them.
    Well, here's the cold, hard truth: If these guys don't improve (significantly) then the O's chances for a winning record, within the next five years, is probably 0.00 (Dean Wormer sound bite). Angelos can throw all the money in the world at Fielder, Cespedes, Damon, etc. and it won't make any difference if these guys don't come through.

    I hopeful that these guys get on track since its really the only hope we have.

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