There was some discussion in the off-season moves thread, but I thought I'd take a stab at what the rosters at Norfolk and Bowie look like at the moment. My big assumption is that Machado and Schoop start out at Frederick, but of course that could be wrong.
Norfolk
1B - Mahoney
2B - Adams
SS - Tolleson/Davis
3B - Bell
C - Paulino/Hester/Sardinha
OF - Aldridge/Richardson/Angle/Beerer
DH - Larish
N. Johnson, Jai Miller, and Antonelli could all wind up at Norfolk depending on how things shake out in ST.
SP - Matusz, Galarraga, Bergesen, Tillman, Johnson, Edell, George
RHR - Berken, Neshek, Link, Eyre, Socolovich, Villareal, Wolf, W. Abreu, F. Beltran
LHR - Dennys Reyes, Phillips, McCurry, Fossum, Rapada (assuming he clears waivers and accepts assignment)
O'Day and Arrieta also have options left I believe and could be pushed down.
Patton, Eveland, and Simon are all possibilities if they don't make the big club, but they'd have to go thru waivers.
I'm still unclear if Strop has a fourth option.
Steve Johnson could get pushed down to Bowie.
Bowie
1B - Townsend
2B - Adair/Mollenhauer
SS - Rojas/Stevens(?)
3B - Waring
C - Joseph/Ward/San Miguel
OF - Hoes/Avery/Welty/Cruz/Baez
DH - Widlansky/ Britton
Assume Rowell is released.
SP - Bascom, R. Bundy, Drake, Lambert, Haughian, Zagone, Tanaka
RHR - Gleason, Hinton, Gamboa, Newby, Rivero, Cooney, Egan, Pelzer, Pomeranz
LHR - Viola, Startup, Loomis, Doi
J. Petitt could is also a possibility for the rotation based on his performance at Frederick at the end of 2011.
Klein, Lebron, or Erbe will probably all be in the mix for Bowie at some point, but may be worked up slowly.
Did I miss anyone? Does anyone think Schoop and Machado start at Bowie? Thoughts?
Last edited by jjb; 02-09-2012 at 04:59 PM.
This is really good work. Your list matches my list very closely.
To get into the nitty-gritty details:
- I think Britton gets the promotion, probably over Widlansky I don't think they'll need a 5th OF and they just sigend Aldridge.
- I think you're right about the placement of Bascom IF VandenHurk leaves the organization.
- Strop may likely be sent down because he has an option left.
- don't forget about Dennys Reyes (probably AAA).
- I think Egan has a chance to repeat at AAA instaed of being demoted, but competition will be stiff
- don't forget about Aaron Baker at Bowie. I think he's your DH (and Townsend injury insurance policy) there.
- you need another middle infielder to back up everyone at Bowie (I don't think Mollenhauer plays SS). Not sure, maybe Stevens.
- Don't forget about Lambert. They sent him to the AFL, so he'll likely be at Bowie. I'm guessing they start Erbe lower, but who knows.
- I also like Gurka to break with Bowie's bullpen. He did quite well last year at Frederick and deserves a promotion.
Real nice list you have...
All good points:Originally Posted by Oldorioles
-With Aldridge, I'm not sure if either Britton or Widlansky go to Norfolk, especially if Miller or Antonelli accept an assignment after ST. Of course w/ Cruz and Baez, Bowie would be jammed w/ OF/DH types.
-Bascom is on the bubble. But with the success at Bowie last year, I'd assume they'd want to see if he can handle AAA.
-I put Strop and Dennys Reyes in the "if they don't make the 25-man roster" list
-Egan will have to outpitch some more experienced guys to get to Norfolk. Certainly possible.
-I originally had Baker as Bowie DH, but after his struggles at AA last year and the seeming log jam at Bowie, I thought maybe they'd start him out at Frederick and make him work his way up.
-You're right, Stevens is probably the most likely candidate to back up SS, unless they think Adair can do it. I believe he was drafted as a SS.
-I forgot Lambert went to AZ in the fall. Assuming he's fully recovered, I'd have to squeeze him into Bowie's staff. As you said, Erbe may start out lower to ease him back.
-I guess Gurka and even Tolliver could force their way onto Bowie, but it kind of depends on how many LHRs the O's carry and whether the ones who don't make it stay in the system.
Thanks for the input.
The roster space sure is getting crowded at Norfolk and Bowie, and we keep signing more. I don't think this is a bad thing at all, we'll have more competition than in year's past and that should lead to a better product on the field (which Norfolk, in particular, sorely needs after last year). I'm especially interested in the pitchers. While they may not be the second coming of Cy Young, they're not exacty chopped liver either. We really are doing some nice stockpiling in the high minors (which was needed). We are going to have some tough decisions to make this spring, even after injuries, trades, etc.
Let's assume the O's ptiching roster is something like:
SP - Guthrie, Arrieta, Britton, Chen, Wada
RP - Gregg, Simon, Hunter, Eveland, Patton, Rapada, Johnson (all of these guys have no options remaining)
I'll throw in Berken as an extra.
This really makes Norfolk crowded, in fact, I could see a scenario where none of our pitchers from Bowie make the Norfolk roster this year. For example:
SP - Bergeson, Mautsz, Tillman, Edell, S. Johnson
RP - O'Day, Strop, Eyre, Abreu, Phillips, Socolovich, McCurry, Link
In the scenario, all six pitchers (in bold) on the 40-man roster still have options left and would be able to be sent down without penalty. Also, nine of these pitchers have big league experience. Of course, this begs the question of what happens to many of the other contenders including:
VandenHurk (if he doesn't leave the org), Villareal, George, Wolf, Egan, Galarraga (if he signs), Reyes
You might be saying, 'We can put them at Bowie'. We'll let's look at Bowie's projected roster, I'll guess it's something like:
SP - Zagone, Drake, B. Bundy, Haughian, Lambert
RP - Bascom, Hinton, Viola, Gamboa, Newby, Rivero, Loomis, Gleason (every single one of these relievers had more IP than hits last year and at least twice as many K's versus BB).
That's not a bad roster, but what about Klein (if he's healthy)? Also, what do you do with:
Beltran, Pelzer, Cooney, Tanaka, Doi
These are certainly good problems to have. I'm glad to see it. It sure makes trying to project opening rosters a fun challenge!
AAA Prediction
SP - Bergeson, Matusz, Tillman, VandenHurk, Galarraga
I updated the OP based on all the recent additions. It is really getting crowded. It should be interesting to see how this all plays out in ST.
Norfolk looks like they will win more games than they lose.
I would think Joseph starts in AAA. No?
I guess I was wrong already
Goodbye Mr. VandenHurk.
I originally thought he would, but now that they've signed Paulino and they still have Hester I think he's headed back to Bowie.
I guess I'll update my pitching rosters guesses based on the recent transactions (I'll assume 12 man staffs):
Baltimore:------Norfolk:------Bowie:
Starters
Hammel------Bergesen-------Zagone
Arrieta-------Matusz---------Drake
Britton-------Tillman---------B. Bundy
Chen---------Edell-----------Haughian
Wada--------Johnson--------Lambert
Bullpen
Lindstrom----O'Day---------Bascom
Gregg--------Eyre-----------Hinton
Hunter-------Phillips---------Viola
Eveland------Neshek--------Gamboa
Patton-------Socolovich-----Rivero
Strop--------McCurry-------Loomis
Johnson-----Link------------Gleason
Outside Looking In:
Simon--------Galarraga------Beltran
Berken-------Abreu----------Pelzer
--------------George---------Cooney
--------------Wolf------------Newby
--------------Villareal---------Tanaka
--------------Fossum---------Doi
--------------Egan
--------------Reyes
Last edited by Oldorioles; 02-06-2012 at 04:38 PM.
I suggest that you have Baltimore's Opening day starter listed in the Bullpen.
Either Hammel, Arrieta, or Britton will be the fifth starter.
It has been suggested also that Eveland may be traded if he does not win a starting spot.
I am beginning to wonder if pitchers like Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton and Brian Matusz will have much of a chance to make the opening day starting rotation. With all the candidates out there and with some pitchers out of options (not them though), that trio possibly could all start the year with Triple-A.
Duquette touched on that kind of indirectly yesterday.
"I think overall we've rushed pitchers to the big leagues in the past and that reflected in some of the rough patches that the pitchers hit in the big leagues. The reason they were put in the big leagues is because the need was there. Frankly, I think it's better to spend a little more time in the minors and let the pitchers acquire the skills it takes to be major leaguers," he said.
If Britton and/or Arrieta in particular don't start with the big club, some fans will again be onery and ticked off. I would wonder if those two have anything to gain by pitching in the minors.
Would it be better for their development to make more minor league starts? Are there still things for them gain in Triple-A?
http://www.masnsports.com/steve_mele...hrie-deal.html
I hear ya with Hunter, and you may very well be right. I could see him making the rotation, and I know buck likes him and he's a bulldog. However, almost half of his appearances last year were out of the pen. I also can't see a scenario where Arrieta and Brtton are not in the big league rotation. Eveland may very well be traded, I certainly don't see him in the rotation for us. Perhaps he'll be usefull out fo the pen or perhaps he'll be traded. I'm hoping Wada sticks. Several folks have suggested putting him in the pen (swapping positions with Hunter), but his K numbers, in particular, would seem to say to put him in the rotation if he can hold up.
I cannot wait to see those guys at Harbor Park this season....
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