"Moneyball" for Football

[Slappy]

Found this article interesting. It talks about applying statistical analysis to football decisions:

http://news.yahoo.com/unlike-patriot...094036437.html

Among some of the unconventional wisdoms:

- Defense isn't any more important than offense in winning championships.

- Teams should go for it more on 4th and 2 or 3.

- Running back is an interchangeable position (something some on here have postulated)

And several others. Also talks about how the game has been very slow to adopt these findings.

[NewMarketSean]

I disagree about going for it on 4th and 2 or 3. Teams have more to lose if they don't make the first down than if they make it.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I disagree about going for it on 4th and 2 or 3. Teams have more to lose if they don't make the first down than if they make it.

Not true. The advantage of the continued possession is worth more than the yardage (and any "momentum" would be outweighed by the lack of opportunity for a big return).

It's similar to the idea that in a sacrifice situation with a runner on first, saving the out is more important than getting the runner into scoring position.

[makoman]

Not true. The advantage of the continued possession is worth more than the yardage (and any "momentum" would be outweighed by the lack of opportunity for a big return).

It's similar to the idea that in a sacrifice situation with a runner on first, saving the out is more important than getting the runner into scoring position.

It probably also depends on whether your 4th and 2 playbook consists solely of shotgun draws, hail marys, and various end around plays.

[Birds of B'more]

I disagree about going for it on 4th and 2 or 3. Teams have more to lose if they don't make the first down than if they make it.

I think it depends on the makeup of the team. For instance, a team with a bad offense would be better served punting and trying to gain an advantage in field position to try and score. A team with an offense that scores a lot can probably afford to take more chances going on 4th down.

[NewMarketSean]

It also depends where you are on the field, too.

[Birds of B'more]

It also depends where you are on the field, too.

Unless your name is Belichick.

[geschinger]

Unless your name is Belichick.

What is sad about that 4th and 2 with BB is that he took so much grief for making a decision that statistically gave his team the best chance of winning in that game. Coaches can't afford to make decisions that put their teams in the best position to win due to the amount of crap that will be heaped upon them if they don't win when going against conventional wisdom.

One day there will be an owner who will give his coach enough cover / support and that coach will be able to make decisions based on what gives his team the best chance of winning and the game will be revolutionized.

[Birds of B'more]

What is sad about that 4th and 2 with BB is that he took so much grief for making a decision that statistically gave his team the best chance of winning in that game. Coaches can't afford to make decisions that put their teams in the best position to win due to the amount of crap that will be heaped upon them if they don't win when going against conventional wisdom.

One day there will be an owner who will give his coach enough cover / support and that coach will be able to make decisions based on what gives his team the best chance of winning and the game will be revolutionized.

Actually Mike Smith would have been a better example of a coach that made poor decisions on 4th down. I think Belichick made the right call in that game. Even if they punted, I think they still lose the way their defense looked...but if they make just 2 yards they probably would have won that game.

Remember reading about a HS coach who always goes for it in 4th down, somewhere in Arkansas I think. But HS is a much much different game than the NFL.

[Mooreisbetter27]

I always go for it on 4th down when I play Super Tecmo Bowl...

[geschinger]

I think Belichick made the right call in that game. Even if they punted, I think they still lose the way their defense looked...but if they make just 2 yards they probably would have won that game.

Agreed, however even if I hadn't been watching and seen how their defense looked the probabilities still make going for it where he did the right call if the objective was to give his team the best odds of finishing that game with a win. But he got so much crap for doing the right thing instead of following conventional wisdom I think even someone like BB doesn't put his team in the best position to win if he ever ends up in an identical scenario. Just to avoid the s***storm that would follow if it didn't work...