HHP: Duquette's Risky Plan

[24fps]

He's just painting the shutters on the house that Andy built. We'll see if it works.

He's also hired a brand-new team of architects in case a major remodeling is needed. Say around July.

My guess is that he's genuinely curious to see what he was given to work with on a daily basis. I would be surprised if he takes longer than a couple of month to decide what he needs to do.

[Miller192]

He's also hired a brand-new team of architects in case a major remodeling is needed. Say around July.

My guess is that he's genuinely curious to see what he was given to work with on a daily basis. I would be surprised if he takes longer than a couple of month to decide what he needs to do.

Every year we assume the Orioles are going to undertake a major rebuild or unload guys at the trade deadline to help build the team. MacPhail has been somewhat active in doing that at the deadline.

I do think your guess could be right though but he clearly thinks this team is better than most do.

In the end, we're probably giving all 8 of Peter's GMs too much credit. Without Peter's committment to winning, I think it's wishfull thinking that we are going to pick a direction.

That said and back to your point, Dan can't really pick a direction without seeing what he really has. So I guess he gets that built in excuse.

[weams]

How? Did you used to be a nice guy?

Yeah, At least I thought so. And Ten Years ago, I was SURE the Orioles were going to be good. Every year.

[Miller192]

Yeah, At least I thought so. And Ten Years ago, I was SURE the Orioles were going to be good. Every year.

Is that a Boh-penis in your avatar?

[Capn Vivi]

This is entirely speculative but I feel like Buck believes this team can compete. Duquette brought in some competent players on budget contracts that could work out (and be a bargain) or bust and not be too significant a loss. If he could have traded Jones for a king's ransom he would have. If he could have signed Prince Fielder to a team-friendly 6-year deal he would have.

For now he's going to hand over the reigns to Buck and let him get to .500. If the team proves its mettle he'll add complementary pieces in 2012. If it blows up in his face then he'll blow up the team. Duquette is an intelligent man but I do believe that Buck wants to win. Duquette is going to give him his shot and if the team blows it then it's Duquette's show from here on out.

/endspeculation

Edit: In other words, I agree with SJ and El Gordo, no big surprise there.

[fish113d]

The more I think about it, and after reading "Moneyball" and even watching the film, I have a feeling that DD has pulled a "Billy Beane" and instead of trying to sign high priced guys or older guys for one year or to bad contracts @ multiple years, he decided to sign a bunch of "middle of the road" or "unproven" guys to in a sense, push the others to work harder and compete.

I find it hard to believe that we can BUST on all 3 Arrieta, Matusz, and Britton...it just doesn't compute to me. At least ONE of them has to succeed right? How can you be THAT WRONG about THAT MANY guys (including those 3)? How can we be upset that we have a Gold Glove center fielder who can run, bat .270-280, hit 20+ HRs, 80+ RBIs? I just don't get it. I expect Markakis to bounce back a bit (at least I hope since he's my favorite player on the roster), and have numbers more like his numbers a few years ago when he hit 17-20 Hrs and had 50+ doubles. I really hope we can see Brian Roberts back on the field and at a great level, but I won't bank on it. I think we need to give Andino a bit more credit as well...he's young, he's dumb, and he may just be dumb enough to become successful for not listening to critics. I hope I'm right on him...he seems like a hard-assed player who gives it 100% all the time. Who knows...ST is not here yet, and we're all just hopeful, and we can say YAY or NEY about the moves that DD has made or NOT made in some cases. I don't think we can blow it up...we've tried that. I just think it's much more difficult to compete with a half-assed minor league system and horrible scouting and such.

Let's be hopeful...at least until July....hehe!

[Sports Guy]

And what about this off season makes you believe that is still the case. Which acquisitions/moves, were at Buck's insistence, inspite of DD's better judgement?

Well, we know that he wanted TT.

I just think Buck would have rather kept the vet players as opposed to trading them. Buck is here to win games, not rebuild and based on the info we know about the Buck/PA relationship, I think he can overrule DD.

Now, I do think that Buck would be ok if some team gave up some completely dumb package for a player like Jones(using him as an example) but beyond that, he wants nothing to do with trading him, Guthrie or other vets...at least not right now. That's why I think this theory of SJs is more Buck than DD...I think DD would go a different direction.

[SilentJames]

Well, we know that he wanted TT.

I just think Buck would have rather kept the vet players as opposed to trading them. Buck is here to win games, not rebuild and based on the info we know about the Buck/PA relationship, I think he can overrule DD.

Now, I do think that Buck would be ok if some team gave up some completely dumb package for a player like Jones(using him as an example) but beyond that, he wants nothing to do with trading him, Guthrie or other vets...at least not right now. That's why I think this theory of SJs is more Buck than DD...I think DD would go a different direction.

I see what you are saying, but it is still based totally on conjecture. DD has said himself time and time again that he likes the talent on this team and that Jones was "the type of player you build around." etc etc etc.

Now some think that he is just talking-the-talk and saying what needs to be said, but honestly if you are going off the empirical evidence my analysis seems correct. I mean we can concoct all of the scenarios we want where Buck could "overrule" DD, but honestly do we have any real evidence of this? Do you think that Buck wanted Teagarden so badly that he would go behind the back of his GM and risk a complete FO crap-storm for a backup catcher?

If Buck is that type of guy we would have been a lot better off with Eric Wedge.

[El Gordo]

Well, we know that he wanted TT.

I just think Buck would have rather kept the vet players as opposed to trading them. Buck is here to win games, not rebuild and based on the info we know about the Buck/PA relationship, I think he can overrule DD.

Now, I do think that Buck would be ok if some team gave up some completely dumb package for a player like Jones(using him as an example) but beyond that, he wants nothing to do with trading him, Guthrie or other vets...at least not right now. That's why I think this theory of SJs is more Buck than DD...I think DD would go a different direction.

What makes you think PA would be in favour of trading Jones,even if Buck wanted to ? The TT acquisition is pretty small potatoes, I doubt that DD had any objection to it. If Buck were calling the shots I would have thought he would have wanted a TOR SP and a MOO bat. Maybe something like Wilson and Pena. This off season looks nothing like what I would have expected a Buck win plan would look like.

[Sports Guy]

What makes you think PA would be in favour of trading Jones,even if Buck wanted to ? The TT acquisition is pretty small potatoes, I doubt that DD had any objection to it. If Buck were calling the shots I would have thought he would have wanted a TOR SP and a MOO bat. Maybe something like Wilson and Pena. This off season looks nothing like what I would have expected a Buck win plan would look like.

He still has to get the ok to spend the big money...and players have to want to come here.

[wildcard]

Dan Duquette has a plan. It is not the plan that many wanted. Prince Fielder is not part of that plan, neither is trading Adam Jones or Jeremy Guthrie. No, but Duquette has a plan.

And it is very risky.

Looking at the moves Duquette has made this offseason I think it is pretty clear, he still believes in the talent that is on this roster. I made this comment at fanfest: "If Brian Matusz [et al] played at the level we expected them to play, then MacPhail would still be here..."; etc etc. I only now realize how true those words are, because I think the O's GM feels the same way.

Duquette has spent all offseason augmenting a bench, flooding the minor leagues and plumbing the depths of South Korea and even New Zealand for fresh talent. The biggest acquisition so far, the Taiwanese starter Chen Wei-Yin, is seen by many to be little more than a middle of the rotation starter. Duquette obviously believes that the Orioles true elite pitcher is currently on the roster in the form of either Matusz, Zack Britton or Jake Arrieta.

Duquette isn't dumb, he knows what the team's problems were last year, pitching and defense. If you believe, as I think he does, that those three pitchers mentioned above still have the elite-level talent that was advertised in the Winter of 2011 then you don't need ot break the bank on a guy like CJ Wilson. Instead, what did Duquette do? He filled in the support roles around them. He went out and hired Rick Peterson to act as some kind of system-wide pitching guru; he hired Brady Anderson to be his apparent second-in-command bringing all of the pitchers to focus on strength, conditioning and endurance. Duquette has brought in a seemingly endless stream of middling starter/ reliever type pitchers to provide support and hopefully cobble together a stronger bullpen than last year.

The defense was awful last year. What does Duquette do? Brings in defensive players in Matt Antonelli, Jai Miller, Endy Chavez and Taylor Teagarden. On-base percentage was among the lowest in the league? Signs Wilson Betemit in an almost Beane-like move to be a primary DH with a high OBP. The power on this team will be coming from Reynolds, Jones, Matt Weiters and JJ Hardy. Chris Davis and Nolan Reimold both have a lot of power potential and both will get their chances as they will be the likely starters at first base and left field going into the season.

Yeah, its from my blog - not trying to drum up traffic here but I genuinely want to get a sense of how people feel about this.

Let's assume that this is what Duquette is doing, does this theory hold any water? Is Duquette crazy? How long do you think Duquette will wait to see if this plan works? What do you think his next step will be?

A lot of what you say here is true but they are a few things that don't ring true to me.

1) Not trade Guthrie? How about not trade Guthrie right now. I believe Guthrie is gone for the best offer in July. Buck may want him to start the season, but the DD has to make a decision to extend him or trade him by July. With his salary growing and DD bringing in every starter he can get, DD probably hopes is that enough young starters pitch well so he can trade Guthrie mid year.

2) DD has come around to staying with the O's talent for a while because he has to. Right after he was hired a reporter asked DD how he was going to get FA to come to the O's. DD chuckled that nervous chuckle and said something like "I have no doubt that free agents will take my money". Well by the winter meeting DD knew better. Good free agents go to contender unless a team grossly over pays and DD doesn't have the budget to grossly over pay. So believe in the talent? I'd say he is giving the talent a chance to prove itself out of necessity.

3) Yes the defense was awful mainly because of Reynolds at 3B. Sure Andino was learning 2B (which is did well by the end of the season), and Reimold is only average in left, but the main problem with the defense was 3B last year. And Reynolds is going to go into ST as the starting 3B again. He may be able to go from the worst defensive 3B is baseball (maybe the worst defensive player in baseball) to merely a below average 3B defensively. But his history tells us that there is little chance he will even become average. DD brought Antonelli in and the O's will see what he has got to offer but it may be a while before a change is made to improve 3B. This is probably DD major failing going in the Spring.

As far as DD having a plan. Sure he has a plan. He has a long term plan to build the farm system. And he is executing that plan with scouts and improved player development personnel. As far as the major league club, I think he is going basically with the talent he had because he had to when attracting high quality FAs to a last place team is impossible and the budget won't allow much else.

That said following what MacPhail had already put in place in not a bad thing and reenforcing it with more starting candidates and position depth is probably the best that could be done under the circumstances. MacPhail's acquisitions were a 50/50 proposition. Half would add value and about half would fail. I think what DD did this off season will follow that same trend.

[atomic]

From listening to DD on the radio I would say he is an idiot. And it is pretty obvious why no one has hired him over the past 10 years. I think the moves were made because they didn't cost much money individually.

[El Gordo]

From listening to DD on the radio I would say he is an idiot. And it is pretty obvious why no one has hired him over the past 10 years. I think the moves were made because they didn't cost much money individually.

He spent 24 M this off season so far. Since you feel you are a superior baseball intellect, why not show us how you would improve the team spending 24 M. You can be sure the flat payroll was not his idea.

[DrungoHazewood]

No, but Duquette has a plan.

And it is very risky.

I don't see how there's any risk at all. He's barely nudged the payroll, and the general expectations are for a team that's going to be somewhere south of .500. Any kind of success and he looks great. They win 65 or 70 games and he's just GM #6 (or 4 or 8 or whatever) who's not doing anything of note under Angelos.

[JTrea81]

I don't see how there's any risk at all. He's barely nudged the payroll, and the general expectations are for a team that's going to be somewhere south of .500. Any kind of success and he looks great. They win 65 or 70 games and he's just GM #6 (or 4 or 8 or whatever) who's not doing anything of note under Angelos.

Expectations are for a team above .500 this year as it's been stated several times by Duquette himself. They may not be the majority of the fanbase's expectations, but they certainly are Duquette's and most likely what he's communicated to Peter Angelos as well...