Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[33rdst]

So you're saying this will be the high point?

God I hope not.

[Sports Guy]

For Lucky Jim...I must spread rep.





I think the problem here is not with DD, but rather with AM. He's the one who likely could have parlayed Guthrie into an Alonso-like player a year or two ago when his value was higher. Now, Guthrie's an aging player with poor and declining peripherals. Frankly, I was expecting even more decline this year, and I'm guessing Buck was as well.

This put the O's into an unenviable position. They have an expensive starter who has very little value now. Best case scenario was they keep him and he performs well enough to trade to a team willing to pick up the $4m for 1/2 season and throw in a prospect. Frankly, given the O's past and Guthrie's age/peripherals, I think the chances of getting some kind of magical value at the deadline were slim.

So, in return they have a guy who, in theory, could establish himself in the next couple of months and have more value than Guthrie, to the birds or to another team. Given equal performance, other teams are certainly more likely to take on the value of a guy who has about 1/2 the salary of Guthrie and one more year of arbitration than the would Guthrie. So, in that regard, I think our net potential assets just went up a bit...not a lot, but a bit. Even if we don't trade him, we will have potentially added a #4 type of starter for a decent market rate in 2013.

Net-net, I think this is a positive. The reason it's not a bigger positive for the O's is because of AM, not because of DD.

I agree the onus is on AM.

HOWEVER, DD should have held onto Guthrie if this is the best we can get...He also should have been looking more long term as well.

LJ said maybe he wants different things than AM did...Well, if that's the case, then DD is pretty clueless about where this team really is right now.

[RVAbird]

Do those who were opposed to trading Guthrie to CIN for Alonso last year prefer this return?

[TiredofLosing20]

Do those who were opposed to trading Guthrie to CIN for Alonso last year prefer this return?

Damn you and your perspective!!!

[allstar1579]

Jim Duquette said this morning on XM COL just really improved in his eyes, that Guthrie is a nice improvement over Hammel. Also danced around it a little bit but said that Guthrie and his arbitration gap were a big reason why he was dealt, that "The Orioles just weren't ok with the idea of paying Guthrie $10m for one season." He said they've been trying to trade him since AM was here, and just couldn't get enough interest at the deadline last year. Olney has been snooping around on this issue too, apparently talks did not go well.

Also of note that he didn't thank Buck for his support and belief in him, while he thanked about 6 other people. Just sayin'.

[clapdiddy]

Do those who were opposed to trading Guthrie to CIN for Alonso last year prefer this return?

I would've preferred Alonso, but I wasn't necessarily a fan of a one to one trade there, either. I guess that Guthrie's value really isn't all that great. One would have thought better quality would have come back for a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter...guess we were wrong.

[RZNJ]

I agree the onus is on AM.

HOWEVER, DD should have held onto Guthrie if this is the best we can get...He also should have been looking more long term as well.

LJ said maybe he wants different things than AM did...Well, if that's the case, then DD is pretty clueless about where this team really is right now.

If Hammel replaces Guthrie and the hard throwing Lindstrom pitches like he did last year, aren't they both just as, if not more, valuable trade chips at the deadline? Guthrie is a one year rental. I think he would have done well in just about any other NL city but he might just not be that highly regarded by other teams. The trade, on paper, is a wash, with either team having a chance of winning it. Hammel and Lindstrom could bomb and have no value or they could both do well and have value. Again, it's not exciting but it's a sideways trade. From the O's perspective that got talent, depth and cost certainty over the next two years.

[Birdland]

danconnollysunDan Connolly

2B/OF Eric Young Jr., 26, also was in Guthrie trade talks. O's eventually saw no fit and said no. He's out of options, O's roster at 40+

[Austin]

According to Connolly, the O's rejected Young as part of the deal...

2B/OF Eric Young Jr., 26, also was in Guthrie trade talks. O's eventually saw no fit and said no. He's out of options, O's roster at 40+

[allstar1579]

This is basically how I feel. If Hammel and Lindstrom is all you can get for Guthrie then you hold onto him and hope he pitches well and the market improves at the trading deadline. Middle of the rotation starters have more value in July to a contending team then they do in February when there are still FA options and the bloom hasn't fallen off your own in house options yet.

Basically DD traded Guthrie when his value was at its lowest. Maybe Hammel can come back to the AL East and pitch well, but there are a lot of things to not like about his career pitch values along with his peripherals last year and I'm not a big fan of national league pitchers making the transition into the AL East.

Should also be mentioned that Guthrie wanted to extend here and we wouldn't do it. It will be interesting to see who they DO spend $10m/year on to replace him in a year when they realize they need 200IP in the middle of the rotation.

[Sports Guy]

If Hammel replaces Guthrie and the hard throwing Lindstrom pitches like he did last year, aren't they both just as, if not more, valuable trade chips at the deadline? Guthrie is a one year rental. I think he would have done well in just about any other NL city but he might just not be that highly regarded by other teams. The trade, on paper, is a wash, with either team having a chance of winning it. Hammel and Lindstrom could bomb and have no value or they could both do well and have value. Again, it's not exciting but it's a sideways trade. From the O's perspective that got talent, depth and cost certainty over the next two years.

I have basically already said all of this in this thread...So I do agree...But I would rather have the younger players right now, as opposed to hoping things work out.

[allstar1579]

danconnollysunDan Connolly

2B/OF Eric Young Jr., 26, also was in Guthrie trade talks. O's eventually saw no fit and said no. He's out of options, O's roster at 40+

That's interesting. I don't see why they couldn't have had Young in addition for nothing, being out of options, and I think he might have also been worth a look at 2B.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

This is basically how I feel. If Hammel and Lindstrom is all you can get for Guthrie then you hold onto him and hope he pitches well and the market improves at the trading deadline. Middle of the rotation starters have more value in July to a contending team then they do in February when there are still FA options and the bloom hasn't fallen off your own in house options yet.

Basically DD traded Guthrie when his value was at its lowest. Maybe Hammel can come back to the AL East and pitch well, but there are a lot of things to not like about his career pitch values along with his peripherals last year and I'm not a big fan of national league pitchers making the transition into the AL East.

So Guthrie would be worth more with only 6 months worth of service time left as opposed to 1 year? How well would he have to perform this season for that to be the case?

I think LookinUp is right, what could you really expect in return come July that would be clearly better then what we got now? I mean, I can understand preferring prospects to what we just got, but if Guthrie is pitching to the tune of a 4.5 ERA come July, and is still owed $4.5m, aren't we in a worst bargaining position then we are now?

[TonySoprano]

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN

Sources say the talks about settling Guthrie's arbitration case were contentious; maybe the O's just decided they wouldn't pay him big $.

[Singleton]

It's an indefensibly bad trade. We're going to be a bad team in 2012. We all know that. We need young players with promise. If Guthrie can't get us that in Feb 2012 (and I think he could), then you hold on to him and hope for better or you take the draft pick. There is no point in trading for spare parts.

The most depressing part to this deal though isn't the players involved but that it is further indication of DD's mindset that is NOT determined to acquire young talent but to nibble around the edges and hope we are mediocre. Whooopeee.