Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[Tony-OH]

No offense Lex but why repost this O's mouth piece? His takes are way worse then our own lollipop brigade and he has no real credibility to me. That may just be me though.

Knowing that Melewski liked the Guthrie deal made me think of the E-trade baby. Here's my shocked face!

[connja]

Masons ports.com is getting old. They never break any news....the sun beats them to the punch on everything. Plus there are doubts about what they can/will write.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't know, they say that is what they are after as well as reorganization. It will be interesting for sure. Especially if after a few starts they are returned to Baltimore as they earn the spot.

I don't see how you can take a 69 win team, make no major off-season acquisitions, not go north with your five best starting pitchers and say that .500 is a goal. The only way .500 is possible is if the higher ceiling guys go North and get it done.

[hoosiers]

If DD had made up his mind to move Guts, this would seem to be a pretty respectable return.

If DD or others wanted to roll the dice and hope for a prospect or two for Guts at the deadline or a possible draft pick next year, this would seem to be a pretty respectable return instead.

Not saying DD turned a lemon into lemonade, and while the trade could backfire with Guts pitching well outside the ALEast and Hammel getting pummeled, it seems the likely result is that this trade is a small positive for the Os.

[Tony-OH]

I think it's a pretty fair argument. Guthrie is likely a 2-3 win pitcher for 2012. He'll be paid like a 2-win pitcher. He's gone, or you have to pony up a market-rate deal, at the end of the year. There's little opportunity for any surplus value there. At least Hammel has the chance to give us two years of 4-win performance (like he did in '09-10) for a 1-win salary. Lindstrom is probably overpaid, but he could be non-tendered if he doesn't perform.

It doesn't take a lollipopper to think this is somewhere between a push and a small gain for the O's. Which is the assessment I've seen from several outside (obviously non-Keith Law) sources like BP.

That is why I mainly don't like this trade. I'm not upset with trading Guthrie, I'm upset over the fact that I have to think real positively for me to see any kind of gain for the Orioles in this deal. It's not a horrible end of the world deal, but as a last place team who won 69 games last year, small gains are not really what Duquette should be pushing for in his trades.

[Sports Guy]

Right. But the draft-pick will still be deducted from the spend, likely. The playoffs serve a leveraging function, but they rarely do they create complete irrationality.

Even if the trade is less, that doesn't mean that you still don't end up with a good trade...a better one than the one DD just made.

Oh well, it is what it is...We just have to hope that Hammel gets back to where he was in 2009 and 2010 and that Lindstrom is as good as he was last year.

[Enjoy Terror]

Melewski's strongest point was made when he flipped the coin; no one on this board would trade for Jeremy Guthrie if it meant having to sacrifice a prospect of any value. This place would burn to the ground if the Orioles even traded a B- guy like Mahoney for Guthrie, let alone someone of any real worth.

[weams]

Knowing that Melewski liked the Guthrie deal made me think of the E-trade baby. Here's my shocked face!

[Lucky Jim]

Even if the trade is less, that doesn't mean that you still don't end up with a good trade...a better one than the one DD just made.

Oh well, it is what it is...We just have to hope that Hammel gets back to where he was in 2009 and 2010 and that Lindstrom is as good as he was last year.

I think the board has generally come to a pretty reasonable place on the trade. I said yesterday that I thought it was a C- trade, but I could see an operating logic. At that time, apoplexy was everywhere. I think, though, we've worked through it, and while not all of us would have made the trade (I'm not sure I would have), it looks a little better with a night of sleep. So, yeah, I agree. Fingers are crossed. Here. And in the Warehouse.

[LookinUp]

Even if the trade is less, that doesn't mean that you still don't end up with a good trade...a better one than the one DD just made.

Oh well, it is what it is...We just have to hope that Hammel gets back to where he was in 2009 and 2010 and/or that Lindstrom is as good as he was last year.

I made a slight edit to your post because I think that's the salient point. If one of these two does well and the other one doesn't, that's still one trade chip at this deadline, next offseason or next deadline.

This deal doesn't net us Prince Fielder. What it does net us is the chance to get several bites at the apple, instead of just one.

I really can't envision a scenario where a team is taking on $4+million of Guthrie's salary in July AND they give us worthy prospects. Guthrie would have to be having a career year for that to even be possible, and I still don't buy it because he simply doesn't have swing and miss stuff and people know that and don't want to rely on that in a playoff race.

[Sports Guy]

I made a slight edit to your post because I think that's the salient point. If one of these two does well and the other one doesn't, that's still one trade chip at this deadline, next offseason or next deadline.

This deal doesn't net us Prince Fielder. What it does net us is the chance to get several bites at the apple, instead of just one.

I really can't envision a scenario where a team is taking on $4+million of Guthrie's salary in July AND they give us worthy prospects. Guthrie would have to be having a career year for that to even be possible, and I still don't buy it because he simply doesn't have swing and miss stuff and people know that and don't want to rely on that in a playoff race.

Last year's first half was pretty solid. ERA just over 4...He was averaging just under 7 IP per start..A K rate of about 6, a walk rate of 2.4..HR rate was just over 1.

Teams see him as an innings eater that will keep you in most games and a guy that can be very good. If the Orioles have to eat 1-2 million, so be it..not a big deal.

[Tony-OH]

I made a slight edit to your post because I think that's the salient point. If one of these two does well and the other one doesn't, that's still one trade chip at this deadline, next offseason or next deadline.

This deal doesn't net us Prince Fielder. What it does net us is the chance to get several bites at the apple, instead of just one.

I really can't envision a scenario where a team is taking on $4+million of Guthrie's salary in July AND they give us worthy prospects. Guthrie would have to be having a career year for that to even be possible, and I still don't buy it because he simply doesn't have swing and miss stuff and people know that and don't want to rely on that in a playoff race.

I agree, but the $4 million was basically sunk costs so the Orioles could have picked up most of that for the prospects. Either way, at the end of the day, I don't think this trade will amount to much either way, but I think it weakened our pitching staff for this year. I would not have traded a 200 inning starter for an expensive reliever and a starter with underwhelming success in the NL West, but I hope Duquette comes out looking smarter than me.

[DrungoHazewood]

Melewski's strongest point was made when he flipped the coin; no one on this board would trade for Jeremy Guthrie if it meant having to sacrifice a prospect of any value. This place would burn to the ground if the Orioles even traded a B- guy like Mahoney for Guthrie, let alone someone of any real worth.

The place nearly did burn to the ground when they traded the 677th-best prospect in baseball for Taylor Teagarden.

[weams]

The place nearly did burn to the ground when they traded the 677th-best prospect in baseball for Taylor Teagarden.

The Orioles are 6-0 in hearings with general counsel H. Russell Smouse. And I can't hear that name without thinking of Mike Flanagan saying, "Not a creature was stirring, not even Russell Smouse."
If the Orioles had gone to arbitration yesterday with Jeremy Guthrie, one of their primary arguments against him would have been how so few of his losses were bullpen-related. I haven't looked it up, but it's somewhere around none - for what that's worth.

Roch today

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_...d-that-24.html

[Lucky Jim]

Roch today

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_...d-that-24.html

Right. But I imagine a number of them were run-support related.