I understand. The CBA didn't fix and address all disparity so the draft changes are bad or irrelevant. Also, there are a number of teams that have done well on the international front without shelling out tons of money. I think pure spend is less of a factor than you believe it to be -- well behind comfort with an organization, relationships built between trainers/buscons and scouts, etc.
It's like you are just flying from your hip on a lot of this. Very un-Drungo...
This might be the case, but you haven't shown any analysis to get you from A to here. Just your gut.
I believe the breakdown is:
- Over 5% of alottment = 75% on overage
- Over 6-10% of alottment = 75% tax on overage and loss of 1st Rd pick next year
- Over 11-15% of alottment = 100% tax on overage and loss of 1st and 2nd Rd pick next year
- Over 15% of alottment = 100% tax on overage and loss of next two 1st Rd picks
If that's not exactly it, it's close.
That could be true for certain top players, but the counter argument could suggest it balances out. If you want to play MLB, which team gives you the greater chance of your dream coming true? The Orioles or the Yankees?
What are the chances you get traded by the Yankees (Montero) or Red Sox (Hanley Ramirez) before playing with the big league club that signed your first contract? I agree with you for the most part, but the O's could forgo other signings and max out on one or two prospects. IIRC, the new CBA allows teams to trade portions of their international draft spending to other teams. The O's could take advantage of this...and I hope they do with their new focus in the IM.
One item in the new CBA that intrigues me is how the FA compensation shrinks the supplemental round (potentially). In 2012, the O's 2nd round pick really is a 3rd rounder.... when factoring in the supplemental picks.
Was looking into this a bit and found the Orioles actually gamed the system for the 1999 draft (much like the Jays, Rays and Sox did in 2010 off season). Check out their 1999 sup picks and first round! Hope the Jays/Rays/Sox are partying like its 1999 (with their 2011 draft), cause the O's really only landed one impact team player with their 7 1st round picks.
Brian Roberts is all the O's got back in that round (for the loss of Alomar, Davis, Palmeiro and Mills).
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