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In Buck, I trust (still).
Both the Red Sox and the Yankees have very, very good teams, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if one or the other wins the division, but my money's on the Rays.
1. Jennings
2. Zobrist
3. Longoria
4. Scott
5. Joyce
6. Pena
7. Upton
8. Brignac
9. Molina
1. Price
2. Shields
3. Moore
4. Hellickson
5. Davis
Should be a solid, if unspectacular, offense that will score more than enough runs considering that starting rotation. Ridiculous.
I'm going with the rays as most improved team in the division this year for the reasons you mentioned. Their rotation is FILTHY.
O's should be second-most improved if Arrieta/Britton/Matusz/Tillman/Bergy improve as a group (which I think is very likely), and couple that with the signings of Chen, Wada, and Betemit. Young pitchers are the key of course.
I said Red Sox and Orioles.
NY was pretty damn good last year. No huge moves. Still a huge factor in the AL East. No improvement.
Boston. Hands down favorite last year. Maybe too cocky? Crashed and burned. New mgmt. new manager. New talent? Might improve as much as to be the second wildcard instead of just watching at home on TV because of the O's!
TB. Squeaked into the playoffs last year, when it was supposed to be a hang on for the ride year... remember how much payroll they cut last offseason???They haven't changed much. So their prospects don't change much... made the playoffs last year. Very well could this year. Low seed playoff team. No change.
Toronto. Again, not much change not much change. Perennial third-banana.
We might not move to fourth, or might... Our record is likely to improve.
With good reason. Even while allowing Gregg to actually pitch in close games, he's still managed a 103-116 record as O's manager. That's not exactly a good number, but it's not bad considering the teams he has managed thus far. Lee Mazzilli and Ray Miller are the only managers to have done better in the last 14 years, and I feel confident in saying that those teams were much more talented.
The Orioles. Same offense. Different pitching. Hopefully different is better.
Orioles - slightly better pitching, worst offense, equal defense. If we win last year's 69 games, I'd be highly surprised.
I think the Yankees will be a little bit worse, just due to age in their starting lineup. I kind of doubt Granderson repeats his 2011 performance. Their starting rotation is strong but people forget that their starting rotation last year was pretty good too. I think Kuroda and Pineda will be better than Colon and Burnett, but not by as much as some might expect.
I think the Red Sox will be a little bit better this year, if they can stay healthy. I can't imagine Crawford will be as bad this year as he was last year, and they aren't going to collapse again like they did last year.
I think Tampa Bay will be about the same this year. Moore is going to be awesome for them, but I expect Hellickson to probably slide back a little bit. If Jennings breaks out then they will be better, but I'm not sure he will.
I think Toronto will be about the same this year. A lot depends on how their young hitters, Rasmus and Lawrie in particular, develop. But in this division I still basically see them as a .500 team, which is what they were last year.
I think Baltimore will be a little bit better this year. I think the rotation and bullpen are stronger than last year, the lineup is about the same, maybe a little better depending on how Hardy does and whether we see any more improvement from Jones and Wieters. They are still the worst team in the division but I think they win more than 69 games.
It is worth mentioning that there are a few highly rated AL East prospects who are close to ready for the majors, though none have spent a full year in AAA yet so we might not see them until the second half of the season, if at all. These include Ryan Lavarnway and Will Middlebrooks of Boston, Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos of NY, and Chris Archer of Tampa (in addition to Matt Moore who has been discussed elswhere in this thread and undoubtedly will be in Tampa's rotation). All of these guys played at least a bit of last year in AAA, and a couple (Lavarway and Betances) got a cup of coffee in the majors. There are a few others who spent all year in AA last year who could see second-half action if they do well in AAA, like Travis d'Arnaud and Anthony Gose of Toronto. The O's do not have any highly-rated prospects who have reached AA yet (unless you count Klein, who is hurt and highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2012).
Yes, but those guys aren't prospects, they are players with substantial MLB experience. I was really focusing my post on guys who have not played before and who are very highly regarded (everyone I mentioned is in either the BA or BP top 100 this year). Every team will have some AAA guys with major league experience who spend some of 2012 in the majors.
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