Lucas Giolito Sprains UCL; Likely Out for Remainder of Season

[RVAbird]

Standout senior pitcher Lucas Giolito of Studio City Harvard-Westlake, the No. 1 high school pitching prospect in the nation, sprained his ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in the seventh inning on Tuesday and will be sidelined between six to 10 weeks, Coach Matt LaCour said Wednesday.

"He's probably done for our season," LaCour said.

The timetable for rehabilitation is apparently 6-10 weeks.

Link

[Sports Guy]

How much does he drop?

[RVAbird]

How much does he drop?

Huge question mark at this point. Best case scenario is his rehab is perfect and takes 6-8 weeks, he spends the month of may showcasing his health and stuff privately for teams, passes physicals with no structural damage and still gets plucked top 10. But absent that, it's going to be pretty hard justifying him at the top of the draft. HS pitchers are already risky commodities. He's avoiding surgery now, but Tommy John is a real possibility a little down the line. I don't think this is something to be concerned about long-term, but I think it makes you think twice before committing 5-10MM and using a top 5 pick on the kid.

The other wrench being thrown into this is the framework of the new CBA, which makes it much more difficult for teams to take a flyer on him in a later round and pay him what he's worth. He's got a commitment to UCLA, so he could be pushed in that direction or he could go to JuCo and re-enter the draft sooner. I can't see Giolito getting healthy in time only to accept a ~1-2 MM deal because he fell. If he believes he is healthy he stands to make orders of magnitude more by re-entering the draft in a couple of years.

This will be an interesting story to watch unfold over the next few months.

[ChaosLex]

Should the O's take a chance and draft him at #4?

[Can_of_corn]

Should the O's take a chance and draft him at #4?

He would need to be a Strasburg level talent for me to be on board with burning a #4.

[Stotle]

Way way too early to have any clue what affect this will have on Giolito's stock come June.

[allstar1579]

Way way too early to have any clue what affect this will have on Giolito's stock come June.

You think? I mean, not a ton of certainty of course, but I'd think even if he is "healthy" by then it will still effect him a bit, a la Rendon.

[Stotle]

You think? I mean, not a ton of certainty of course, but I'd think even if he is "healthy" by then it will still effect him a bit, a la Rendon.

The only thing anyone knows is he's being shut down due to a strain in his elbow. He could feel fine in May, show no structural damage, and throw some before the draft. Or, he could not pick up a ball between now and June. There's just no way to tell at this point.

[allstar1579]

The only thing anyone knows is he's being shut down due to a strain in his elbow. He could feel fine in May, show no structural damage, and throw some before the draft. Or, he could not pick up a ball between now and June. There's just no way to tell at this point.

Yeah, good point. I just get real nervous when I hear UCL, I know mine was terrible when I sprained it, took FOREVER to heal.

[Stotle]

Yeah, good point. I just get real nervous when I hear UCL, I know mine was terrible when I sprained it, took FOREVER to heal.

Keep in mind his stock had nowhere to go but down. If teams are confident there is no long term issue, he'll be drafted and get a nice bonus. It's just a question as to what the medicals will show before the draft, and what shakes out over the next 14 weeks or so.

[allstar1579]

Keep in mind his stock had nowhere to go but down. If teams are confident there is no long term issue, he'll be drafted and get a nice bonus. It's just a question as to what the medicals will show before the draft, and what shakes out over the next 14 weeks or so.

I had him as 1a personally (before Appel started looking shaky) but I'm just thinking throwing that hard...and a UCL sprain. KINDA reminds me of the Strasburg situation where you just KNEW the TJ injury was coming at some point. I always get worried about guys that throw that hard.

Yeah you're right though, he comes back clean and a team would be stupid not to take him in the top 5 and worst case rehab him a bit before next season.

[Stotle]

I had him as 1a personally (before Appel started looking shaky) but I'm just thinking throwing that hard...and a UCL sprain. KINDA reminds me of the Strasburg situation where you just KNEW the TJ injury was coming at some point. I always get worried about guys that throw that hard.

Yeah you're right though, he comes back clean and a team would be stupid not to take him in the top 5 and worst case rehab him a bit before next season.

I wouldn't be overly concerned at this point. Just stinks for Luc that he'll have to miss the USA Baseball NHSI and has to stress about the draft stuff. Hopefully he rests-up and confirms his health come May.