Matt Hobgood 2012

[allstar1579]

I figured he was on the buffet circuit after winning the GPOY.

I mean maybe it's just me, but I'm 18 years old and just got taken #5 overall, I'm trying to get out there and start RIGHT away to work on that first big ML contract. All business, celebrations and vacations are for the offseason. I get that some of these guys throw a lot in that senior year and they "need a break" but this is your career. Unless there is some crazy money issue (which there wasn't for him, he didn't sign for some $10M bonus or something) I would hope these kids would want access to major league resources as fast as humanly possible. That whole situation left me with a bad taste...and I tried to ignore it and cut him some slack, but then the injuries and everything that have come after just make it look worse.

I give the kid a TON of credit for handling things well and not making excuses or throwing tantrums like I've seen other prospects do, BUT I think a lot of things weren't handled well in the beginning either.

[Can_of_corn]

I mean maybe it's just me, but I'm 18 years old and just got taken #5 overall, I'm trying to get out there and start RIGHT away to work on that first big ML contract. All business, celebrations and vacations are for the offseason. I get that some of these guys throw a lot in that senior year and they "need a break" but this is your career. Unless there is some crazy money issue (which there wasn't for him, he didn't sign for some $10M bonus or something) I would hope these kids would want access to major league resources as fast as humanly possible. That whole situation left me with a bad taste...and I tried to ignore it and cut him some slack, but then the injuries and everything that have come after just make it look worse.

I give the kid a TON of credit for handling things well and not making excuses or throwing tantrums like I've seen other prospects do, BUT I think a lot of things weren't handled well in the beginning either.

I would like to think that I would have been like that but I don't honestly know. He got to go to the ESPYs, I don't know if I would have said no to something like that at 18.

[allstar1579]

I would like to think that I would have been like that but I don't honestly know. He got to go to the ESPYs, I don't know if I would have said no to something like that at 18.

I would have totally blown off the ESPYS but even if he didn't, that's a week long trip, it doesn't excuse the other 2 months, or working with the team in the offseason since he did delay things. Just not a tough choice for me, a stupid award show or a half season of professional development.

[RZNJ]

The O's wouldn't admit if he was hurt inbetween HS ball and signing because it'll make them look even WORSE for taking him. Hobby wouldn't admit to getting hurt on his own time because he took so long to sign and didn't play his first season (after it was reported he was ready to sign RIGHT after the draft). Something that's always stood out to me is that he all of a sudden took that LONG break before signing and couldn't play that season...I've always wondered if he hurt something and then was trying to drag out the process to heal for a few months before the physical, OR while working out on his own after taking such a long break from baseball he hurt something (I've heard whispers of this but it's just a rumor).



I know he says he did it soon after starting for Bluefield, but if I'm a pro athlete and I'm hurt I'm raising a HUGE fuss about it and getting sent to the Doctor instead of putting my young career in jeopardy by trying to play through it. There are just a lot of things on both sides of the story that don't make sense, and really unfortunate timing, because another even just average player from that draft class and we'd be much better off as an org.

1. This theory makes little sense to me. If the Orioles knew he was hurt before signing, you still think they would have signed him for 2.5M or whatever is was?

2. The draft was early June. He signed June 27. In essence, he waited 3 weeks to sign. Again, it's certainly a theory that maybe he hurt himself and was waiting for it to heal but that's all it is, a theory with nothing at all to back it up.

3. You said he didn't play that season, but indeed he did pitch at Bluefield, although most said his velocity was only high 80's.

The only evidence out there was what Hobgood has had to say on the subject. Anything else, is wild rumor and theory. I'll go with Hobgood for now.

[Can_of_corn]

1. This theory makes little sense to me. If the Orioles knew he was hurt before signing, you still think they would have signed him for 2.5M or whatever is was?

2. The draft was early June. He signed June 27. In essence, he waited 3 weeks to sign. Again, it's certainly a theory that maybe he hurt himself and was waiting for it to heal but that's all it is, a theory with nothing at all to back it up.

3. You said he didn't play that season, but indeed he did pitch at Bluefield, although most said his velocity was only high 80's.

The only evidence out there was what Hobgood has had to say on the subject. Anything else, is wild rumor and theory. I'll go with Hobgood for now.

I can see Allstar's view from a couple of different angles. 1-They missed the injury on the physical 2-They underestimated the severity and figured signing him a better idea then failing his physical and getting a comp pick.

[allstar1579]

1. This theory makes little sense to me. If the Orioles knew he was hurt before signing, you still think they would have signed him for 2.5M or whatever is was?

2. The draft was early June. He signed June 27. In essence, he waited 3 weeks to sign. Again, it's certainly a theory that maybe he hurt himself and was waiting for it to heal but that's all it is, a theory with nothing at all to back it up.

3. You said he didn't play that season, but indeed he did pitch at Bluefield, although most said his velocity was only high 80's.

The only evidence out there was what Hobgood has had to say on the subject. Anything else, is wild rumor and theory. I'll go with Hobgood for now.

Like I said in the very beginning, yes, I think giving him 2.5 is something they would absolutely do to save face if they thought he had a relatively minor injury. But like I also said,I don't necessarily think this is how things went down, but I do think that something is too fishy for the way it happened. That he just HAPPENED to tear his rotator cuff in that LITTLE time he spent there.

Sure MAYBE there is a chance the luck is just that rotten, but the fanbase would be MUCH more likely to give the team a pass for them reaching on a pick, and then him being terrible for a couple years if they knew that he flat out had a bad injury early on. Either the team is lying or the player is lying, and both of them have reason to.

If his velo was in the 80's from the first pitch forward, the injury happened before then, which is why I tend to believe the rumors that he picked it up between the draft and the physcial. The question is did they miss it on the physical, or did they think it wasn't important enough to back out of the signing altogether. Because you own him for 6 years, it seems stupid to throw away the pick at that point, like I said they'd want to save face.

I think back to the rumors and speculation of him throwing high 90s the week before the draft (and this exaggerations happen every year, but SOMETIMES they aren't exaggerations, kids try to overreach to improve their draft position a few spots) and I have a feeling he reached back for a little too much with scouts watching and tore it then. Just my best guess trying to cut through all the BS thrown every direction with this stuff, but it's an educated guess.

[RZNJ]

Like I said in the very beginning, yes, I think giving him 2.5 is something they would absolutely do to save face if they thought he had a relatively minor injury. But like I also said,I don't necessarily think this is how things went down, but I do think that something is too fishy for the way it happened. That he just HAPPENED to tear his rotator cuff in that LITTLE time he spent there.

Sure MAYBE there is a chance the luck is just that rotten, but the fanbase would be MUCH more likely to give the team a pass for them reaching on a pick, and then him being terrible for a couple years if they knew that he flat out had a bad injury early on. Either the team is lying or the player is lying, and both of them have reason to.

If his velo was in the 80's from the first pitch forward, the injury happened before then, which is why I tend to believe the rumors that he picked it up between the draft and the physcial. The question is did they miss it on the physical, or did they think it wasn't important enough to back out of the signing altogether. Because you own him for 6 years, it seems stupid to throw away the pick at that point, like I said they'd want to save face.

I think back to the rumors and speculation of him throwing high 90s the week before the draft (and this exaggerations happen every year, but SOMETIMES they aren't exaggerations, kids try to overreach to improve their draft position a few spots) and I have a feeling he reached back for a little too much with scouts watching and tore it then. Just my best guess trying to cut through all the BS thrown every direction with this stuff, but it's an educated guess.

You obviously have a theory that you believe in. Just a few things that strike me odd. You say his time in Bluefield was too little to tear the rotator cuff yet you'd have no problem he did it during his last HS game. The kid says they were trying to change his mechanics and he feels this led to the shoulder problem. It would also explain decreased velocity even without any injury. Heck, if you want to go with theories I could go with this one:

1) He hadn't thrown in weeks and after the O's signed him they brought him to OPACY and had him throw a bulllpen. Maybe he was trying to impress then and did something then. The one thing my theory has in common with yours is there is nothing to back it up.

2.) Maybe Hobgood is lying and he did hurt the shoulder before he signed. Absent of any evidence at all to the contrary, I'll take the kid's word. He was throwing mid 90s his last HS game and never approached that at Bluefield. Of course, it's not like he walked into camp and right into games. First he participated in workouts, where supposedly the Orioles changed the way he threw the ball. Isn't that just as likely a scenario in which a kid would hurt his arm as it is where he rears back and tries to throw harder during his last HS game or two?

[PoleyFan]

he took so long to sign and didn't play his first season

I know he says he did it soon after starting for but if I'm a pro athlete and I'm hurt I'm raising a HUGE fuss about it and getting sent to the Doctor instead of putting my young career in jeopardy by trying to play through it.

What are you talking about? He didn't stall and he didnt miss his first season. The draft was on the 9th, he graduated on the 12th and he was in Baltimore for his physical two weeks later and reported to BLUEFIELD on the 29th.

Just say you hate that they drafted him and leave it at that instead of dreaming up more stuff that never happened to go along with all the other lies that have been said about him.

And, pro athlete? What did he know about pro ball at that point? They did the talking and he did the listening. When he told them his arm was sore and he was told that it would go away and that he "just wasn't used to pro ball yet." He TRUSTED THE TEAM to know the right thing to do. Instead of blaming the player, why don't you ask why the Orioles - with their YEARS of experience - didn't take a 1st round drafted pitcher's arm complaints more seriously instead of continuing to have him throw? They should have sent him for an MRI immediately.

I can certainly understand why there is concern taking HS players high in the draft because the belief is that if they're advanced enough to be drafted they must be advanced in their mindset as well. A kid can be more mature than their counterparts in some of the decisions they make, but there is no substitute for years of growth and experience. Even an exceptional player like Dylan Bundy is learning from the older players. I'm sure he will be even more amazing when he's 21.

[PoleyFan]

[QUOTE=allstar1579;2697858]

If his velo was in the 80's from the first pitch forward, the injury happened before then, which is why I tend to believe the rumors that he picked it up between the draft and the physcial.[QUOTE]

The MRI done during the physical was NEGATIVE and he NEVER had ANY arm injuries/complaints/issues/doctor visits/MRIs before Bluefield.

I think back to the rumors and speculation of him throwing high 90s the week before the draft...... and I have a feeling he reached back for a little too much with scouts watching and tore it then.

He threw 92-94 and hit 96-97 in EVERY GAME his senior year, and hit 98 his JUNIOR year when he beat Gerrit Cole 1-0 in a playoff game. Every scout in SoCal saw these numbers.

[PoleyFan]

[QUOTE]
1) He hadn't thrown in weeks and after the O's signed him they brought him to OPACY and had him throw a bulllpen. Maybe he was trying to impress then and did something then. The one thing my theory has in common with yours is there is nothing to back it up.[QUOTE]

Actually, he pitched his last HS game just three days before throwing for the Orioles.

Of course, it's not like he walked into camp and right into games. First he participated in workouts, where supposedly the Orioles changed the way he threw the ball. Isn't that just as likely a scenario in which a kid would hurt his arm as it is where he rears back and tries to throw harder during his last HS game or two?

Exactly.

[Can_of_corn]

[QUOTE=PoleyFan;2697889][QUOTE=allstar1579;2697858]

If his velo was in the 80's from the first pitch forward, the injury happened before then, which is why I tend to believe the rumors that he picked it up between the draft and the physcial.

The MRI done during the physical was NEGATIVE and he NEVER had ANY arm injuries/complaints/issues/doctor visits/MRIs before Bluefield.



He threw 92-94 and hit 96-97 in EVERY GAME his senior year, and hit 98 his JUNIOR year when he beat Gerrit Cole 1-0 in a playoff game. Every scout in SoCal saw these numbers.

First I have seen of this. Reference please.

[allstar1579]

[QUOTE=PoleyFan;2697889][QUOTE=allstar1579;2697858]

If his velo was in the 80's from the first pitch forward, the injury happened before then, which is why I tend to believe the rumors that he picked it up between the draft and the physcial.

The MRI done during the physical was NEGATIVE and he NEVER had ANY arm injuries/complaints/issues/doctor visits/MRIs before Bluefield.



He threw 92-94 and hit 96-97 in EVERY GAME his senior year, and hit 98 his JUNIOR year when he beat Gerrit Cole 1-0 in a playoff game. Every scout in SoCal saw these numbers.

BS. I know people that have scouted him personally and NEVER saw those numbers from him.

He did sit 92-94 and would hit 95 once in a while. If those numbers were more legit he would have been a reasonable pick at #5 and wouldn't have been projected to go in the 15-20 range like he was.

Do you have the results of the MRI? Did the team share them with you? That's nice of them.

What's your explanation of a more than 10mph velo drop in a couple weeks time then? Mechanics changes aren't going to do that. So you tell me why he was clocked a few weeks prior in the 90's and then shows up in the pros and from pitch #1 is throwing low 80's.

[allstar1579]

You obviously have a theory that you believe in. Just a few things that strike me odd. You say his time in Bluefield was too little to tear the rotator cuff yet you'd have no problem he did it during his last HS game. The kid says they were trying to change his mechanics and he feels this led to the shoulder problem. It would also explain decreased velocity even without any injury. Heck, if you want to go with theories I could go with this one:

1) He hadn't thrown in weeks and after the O's signed him they brought him to OPACY and had him throw a bulllpen. Maybe he was trying to impress then and did something then. The one thing my theory has in common with yours is there is nothing to back it up.

2.) Maybe Hobgood is lying and he did hurt the shoulder before he signed. Absent of any evidence at all to the contrary, I'll take the kid's word. He was throwing mid 90s his last HS game and never approached that at Bluefield. Of course, it's not like he walked into camp and right into games. First he participated in workouts, where supposedly the Orioles changed the way he threw the ball. Isn't that just as likely a scenario in which a kid would hurt his arm as it is where he rears back and tries to throw harder during his last HS game or two?

He was throwing 80's from pitch #1 in BF, there's no way he tore it on pitch #1. He was throwing high 90's RIGHT before the draft during final evals, and as soon as he showed up pro he was throwing low 80s. Changing mechanics will not knock 10mph+ off a FB.

The difference in theories is that I have working knowledge and experience in the field seeing kids do this stuff all the time. Not to mention a rotator cuff tear of my own.

Like I said from the beginning, we are never going to get the full story, because neither side is going to share info that will make them look bad, and only the player and the team have the full story. I can say from experience that none of what is "out" adds up.

[RZNJ]

[QUOTE=allstar1579;2697913][QUOTE=PoleyFan;2697889]

If his velo was in the 80's from the first pitch forward, the injury happened before then, which is why I tend to believe the rumors that he picked it up between the draft and the physcial.

BS. I know people that have scouted him personally and NEVER saw those numbers from him.

He did sit 92-94 and would hit 95 once in a while. If those numbers were more legit he would have been a reasonable pick at #5 and wouldn't have been projected to go in the 15-20 range like he was.

Do you have the results of the MRI? Did the team share them with you? That's nice of them.

What's your explanation of a more than 10mph velo drop in a couple weeks time then? Mechanics changes aren't going to do that. So you tell me why he was clocked a few weeks prior in the 90's and then shows up in the pros and from pitch #1 is throwing low 80's.

Mechanics changes can't cause injury? Mechanics changes can't cause decreases in velocity? You say 10mph but I think it's more like 5 mph since he sat 92-94 in HS and most reports had him sitting high 80's as a professional. You prefer to believe whispers and rumors rather than Hobgood and someone who apparently is pretty close to him. If you could give any kind of merit to the whispers and rumors I might be more intrigued. Are you protecting the innocent? The only kind of people who might know if Hobgood hurt himself during a game, trying to impress scouts, would be Hobgood, his HS teammates, and his HS coach. Without hearing something like that the whispers and rumors sound pretty shallow.

[RZNJ]

He was throwing 80's from pitch #1 in BF, there's no way he tore it on pitch #1. He was throwing high 90's RIGHT before the draft during final evals, and as soon as he showed up pro he was throwing low 80s. Changing mechanics will not knock 10mph+ off a FB.

The difference in theories is that I have working knowledge and experience in the field seeing kids do this stuff all the time. Not to mention a rotator cuff tear of my own.

Like I said from the beginning, we are never going to get the full story, because neither side is going to share info that will make them look bad, and only the player and the team have the full story. I can say from experience that none of what is "out" adds up.

Like I said, he didn't show up in Bluefield and pitch that night. There was a lot of time spent in workouts before he ever took the field. You don't know if he hurt his arm during these workouts. I don't know either. To say he couldn't have hurt his arm during workouts with the BF club is disingenuous. They were changing his mechanics. It's entirely possible. Not sure why you can't concede that point. It doesn't matter how much experience you have. He could have hurt it pitching in a HS game. He could have hurt it in Bluefield long before he ever threw his first professional pitch. There is no one of note that says it happened the first way. The kid, himself, thinks it happened the second way. Either way is possible, but I don't see why the second way can't be acknowledged by a reasonable person.