Current Preference List (3/22/2012)

[allstar1579]

Do you have much background info on Giolito (finances, academics, family, etc.) that could provide insight on how much of an issue losing his scholarship would be? Obviously, he could probably get onto just about any team as a walk-on, but getting into the actual school without baseball might be the tough part. Doesn't really seem like he'd be a community college candidate, though it certainly wouldn't take more than one (healthy) year for him to regain his draft stock.

His parents are former (maybe current) actors, Rick Giolito owns a social media development company now, and his mom Lindsay Frost has been in a bunch of tv shows and a couple of movies. I doubt the money is an issue, and his dad is really into his career and really supportive. The only issue would be IF (and it doesn't look like it, from the sounds of things he's improving a ton already) he had to have TJ surgery and miss next year for whatever reason, would a school still take him to sit for a year, then he'd have to play 2 years before he could be drafted, compared to his option of taking what he gets wherever he gets drafted. He would be watched like a hawk and one healthy year would put him right back at the top of the draft I think, but from what I'm hearing some teams later in the first aren't scared off by the injury and will take him either way (kinda like Renaudo a couple years ago I guess, but that's a little different cause he was in college already.)

Heard he's ahead of schedule, and looks like he will be able to throw well before the draft. I say he still goes top 5, maybe not #1 anymore, but a real candidate to be there at #4 for the O's.

[RZNJ]

Right now I'm guessing top four are (in no particular order)

Appel
Zimmer
Giolito
Buxton


IF you had the choice of those 4 guys, who would you pick and why? Everyone join in. And Stotle, I know you still are in the information gathering stage, but just for FUN, if you had to make the decision today.

[allstar1579]

Right now I'm guessing top four are (in no particular order)

Appel
Zimmer
Giolito
Buxton


IF you had the choice of those 4 guys, who would you pick and why? Everyone join in. And Stotle, I know you still are in the information gathering stage, but just for FUN, if you had to make the decision today.

Hard for me because I've done little to no homework on Zimmer yet, aside from a tiny bit the other night, but I'm a big Giolito fan and if he can throw in May I'm taking him.

[Stotle]

Right now I'm guessing top four are (in no particular order)

Appel
Zimmer
Giolito
Buxton


IF you had the choice of those 4 guys, who would you pick and why? Everyone join in. And Stotle, I know you still are in the information gathering stage, but just for FUN, if you had to make the decision today.

Between those four, I'd probably go Appel/Buxton/Zimmer/Giolito if it's today. Zimmer doesn't have Giolito's ceiling, but until I hear otherwise I'm assuming the worst with regards to Giolito's injury (if I'm responsible for the decision).

I'll have a different top 4 than that tomorrow when I update the pref list for Camden Depot.

[McNulty]

That's definitely a hole in his game, but it doesn't show up every weekend. Sometimes he presses and expands his zone, but he also shows an ability to hone in and track the ball pretty well. That said, I think his offensive prowess gets exaggerated some. He's a good hitter, but were he not a catcher, he wouldn't be an early-1st Round guy for me. Closer to 50-50 offensively, with a chance for above-average to plus power if squares enough balls at the next level.

I think some teams would consider Maddox as a bat at the pro level (potentially), but it won't be behind the plate. He's just too stiff back there, and while he has a cannon he isn't particularly accurate (mostly because his footwork isn't great). I kind of liked him at 3b, but am in the minority there based on other scouts I've spoken to (I'd still stick him there in low-A and instructs and see how he does. A pro team might put the bat in his hand and stick him at 1b. I am actually curious as to whether he could DH and close for an AL team. That would be pretty awesome (though highly unconventional).

Sounds like you are describing Tony Sanchez (or Castro) instead of Buster Posey. Pass.

With regards to Maddox, I love that idea. I was just thinking about how interesting Brooks Kieschnick was just last week. Evaluators always say its too hard to focus on being a position player and a pitcher to be successful at either (Casey Kelly comes to mind). Well, if you sub fielding out for pitching, maybe that works. Especially when you can get by on a 2-pitch mix.

I still maintain he should be given a shot behind the dish, but I like the third idea too.

PS- Don't ever feel like a moron throwing out opinions, I miss you chiming in with ACC analysis like back in the day.

I just don't get to see enough anymore to feel confident. Philadelphia might as well be Calgary when it comes to college ball, and I don't have the dish anymore. But thanks for the compliment.

[Stotle]

Updated pref list (March 27, 2012):

1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
3. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
4. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
5. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
6. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
7. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)
8. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
9. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
10. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
11. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
12. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
13. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)
14. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

Full article here, including notes from the Appel and Zimmer starts I saw this weekend.

[CamdenTerp]

How do guys feel about Michael Wacha? I like the size at 6'6" and the stats from his 1st two years at Texas A&M and his continued progression this year. I know he had a knockout performance against Pepperdine the other day and I read he is up to 92-93 range consistently with a plus changeup. Is it possible for him to creep into your top 15 Stotle and perhaps top 5?

[Stotle]

How do guys feel about Michael Wacha? I like the size at 6'6" and the stats from his 1st two years at Texas A&M and his continued progression this year. I know he had a knockout performance against Pepperdine the other day and I read he is up to 92-93 range consistently with a plus changeup. Is it possible for him to creep into your top 15 Stotle and perhaps top 5?

I debated swapping him in for two different players, and still might. But to be honest I don't think he outdoes Appel or Zimmer, and I don't think the ceiling is there to make him worth a 1:4 pick. I haven't gone into it yet, but the 15 I selected aren't necessarily the 15 I'd take with the first half of first round picks. It's a mix of guys I think could be good value at 1:4 and guys who I think could wind up there depending on how their spring goes. There are a handful of guys that I think could go 5-15 range but (in my opinion) lack the ceiling for consideration at 1:4.

[oriolekid]

His parents are former (maybe current) actors, Rick Giolito owns a social media development company now, and his mom Lindsay Frost has been in a bunch of tv shows and a couple of movies. I doubt the money is an issue, and his dad is really into his career and really supportive. The only issue would be IF (and it doesn't look like it, from the sounds of things he's improving a ton already) he had to have TJ surgery and miss next year for whatever reason, would a school still take him to sit for a year, then he'd have to play 2 years before he could be drafted, compared to his option of taking what he gets wherever he gets drafted. He would be watched like a hawk and one healthy year would put him right back at the top of the draft I think, but from what I'm hearing some teams later in the first aren't scared off by the injury and will take him either way (kinda like Renaudo a couple years ago I guess, but that's a little different cause he was in college already.)

Heard he's ahead of schedule, and looks like he will be able to throw well before the draft. I say he still goes top 5, maybe not #1 anymore, but a real candidate to be there at #4 for the O's.

While trying to find out who Lindsay Frost is, I discovered that in 1994 she appeared as a guest star on a TV show called Birdland. She did this in 1994. Giolito was born in 1994. The gods have given me a sign.

[RZNJ]

Stotle (of course anyone else's opinion is welcome) how do Marrero and Cecchini profile as offensive players?

[allstar1579]

Stotle (of course anyone else's opinion is welcome) how do Marrero and Cecchini profile as offensive players?

Marrero not a whole lot of bat there, but I've seen flashes of it. Had a nice showcase game back coming out of HS. Cecchini I like a lot, I know Nick is pretty high on him too, he's the one that got me watching him, but I'd put him in consideration at #4, just a little behind a couple other guys.

[Stotle]

Stotle (of course anyone else's opinion is welcome) how do Marrero and Cecchini profile as offensive players?

Cecchini has a higher ceiling -- potential above-average offensive producer w/hit tool and power. Clean-up to do, but he has a lot of what you look for in a future pro bat.

Marrero is a little deceiving because he hits better with wood than he does the BBCOR metal bats. He isn't likely to win batting titles, but he could get on base at a .350 clip and hit you 15 homeruns or so, depending on his ability to make adjustments at the pro level.

[LookinUp]

This seems like an underwhelming top 5. Appel, Buxton and Giolito (if healthy) make a nice top 3. I suppose Zimmer could have Bauer-like draft stock potential (top 3 team takes his high probability?). I'm hopeful that one of Giolito/Buxton fall to the O's at #4 and, if Giolito, he does enough to make us confident that his injury isn't a long-term issue.

[CamdenTerp]

This seems like an underwhelming top 5. Appel, Buxton and Giolito (if healthy) make a nice top 3. I suppose Zimmer could have Bauer-like draft stock potential (top 3 team takes his high probability?). I'm hopeful that one of Giolito/Buxton fall to the O's at #4 and, if Giolito, he does enough to make us confident that his injury isn't a long-term issue.

I think this is the best case scenario for us. I would like to see how Zimmer does with the rest of this season.

Is there ever any concern over the level of competition the College players face like there may be with HS kids? I am asking because of Zimmer playing for Univ. of San Francisco he doesn't face the bigger conferences like the ACC or SEC consistently like Appel does in the PAC-12. OR is it if you throw mid 90's consitently with movement/location and have other plus stuff it doesn't really matter where you play.

[Stotle]

I think this is the best case scenario for us. I would like to see how Zimmer does with the rest of this season.

Is there ever any concern over the level of competition the College players face like there may be with HS kids? I am asking because of Zimmer playing for Univ. of San Francisco he doesn't face the bigger conferences like the ACC or SEC consistently like Appel does in the PAC-12. OR is it if you throw mid 90's consitently with movement/location and have other plus stuff it doesn't really matter where you play.

Mix. Good orgs take a number of college-specific factors into account in analysis, but the trick is to not get lost in the weeds. As far as Zimmer is concerned, he has faced an "average" schedule of opponents so far this year. Also, traditionally the West Coast Conference is a solid baseball conference. Loyala Marymount, San Fran, San Diego, St. Mary's, Pepperdine, etc.