Current Preference List (3/22/2012)

As noted, I'll be covering the draft from the Orioles perspective for ESPN's Sweetspot Network Orioles Blog, Camden Depot. First piece is up (link), giving my current preference list:

1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.

2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

3. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

4. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.

5. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

6. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)

7. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.

8. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)

9. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)

10. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)

11. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)

12. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)

13. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)

14. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)

15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

The high school arms have lagged some this spring, but that's not uncommon early on. I'll see both Zimmer and Appel this weekend, and wouldn't be completely shocked if they flip-flop on this list come Tuesday.

As noted, I'll be covering the draft from the Orioles perspective for ESPN's Sweetspot Network Orioles Blog, Camden Depot. First piece is up (link), giving my current preference list:

1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.

2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

3. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

4. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.

5. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

6. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)

7. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.

8. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)

9. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)

10. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)

11. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)

12. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)

13. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)

14. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)

15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

The high school arms have lagged some this spring, but that's not uncommon early on. I'll see both Zimmer and Appel this weekend, and wouldn't be completely shocked if they flip-flop on this list come Tuesday.

You think Buxton is gone before the O's pick? I think Law said that he should be the first pick by the Astros, even though they went OF last year and have numerous positions to fill.

I see #13 plays for a baseball academy in Puerto Rico.

To level in the US is that comparable?

I see #13 plays for a baseball academy in Puerto Rico.

To level in the US is that comparable?

High school level. It's essentially a high school with heavy emphasis on athletic program.

You think Buxton is gone before the O's pick? I think Law said that he should be the first pick by the Astros, even though they went OF last year and have numerous positions to fill.

If the draft were today, probably yes. The wildcard is Zimmer, who might be the top overall arm in the draft based on spring performance. It wouldn't be crazy to see Appel, Zimmer and Zunino/Marrero go in the top three, with Buxton available for Baltimore.

Giolito at #11 because of the injury? If so, how much doesn that knock him down?

Yeah, #11 is a placeholder due to the injury. Won't have any new info on him until he starts throwing again in May. Were he not injured, he'd be #1.

Do you think the O's get a Stud at #4 either way?

thanks so much Stotle, for your effort.

Edit: Barring a Hobgoodian selection.

Do you think the O's get a Stud at #4 either way?

thanks so much Stotle' date=' for your effort.

Edit: Barring a Hobgoodian selection.[/quote']

There should be someone available that doesn't command much, if any, over traditional slot, but is still more than worthy of a fourth overall selection. It's a solid draft to be picking 4th, and Baltimore could easily end-up with the best player in the draft, looking back four years from now.

Good question. On the HS level is it fair to call Buxton and Giolito the only "studs"?

Anyone on the college level that fits that bill?

I think that's fair, though Smoral and Fried (even Weickel) have so much projection that it would not be surprising to see them take a huge step forward at any moment. Cecchini/Trahan/Almora/Dahl are clearly behind Buxton's upside, but have all flashed special tools, with Cecchini and Almora probably being the highest probability guys and Dahl/Trahan showing the most room for growth. Correa is a nice blend of upside and refinement, and could easily be a top 5-10 guy, as well.

All that said, I'll feel better answering this in late April after I've had a chance to see more of a couple of the HS kids on my list (Smoral, Trahan, Cecchini, and maybe Fried). I think Almora can be an above-average centerfielder, but with much less risk than you get with Buxton. A kid with "stud" upside but who is too raw for me to consider at 1:4 is Lewis Brinson. Chance to be a plus defender in center with a plus hit tool and plus speed, but is very raw at the plate right now.

As far as the collegiate level, "stud" doesn't really describe any position player I've seen. I think Appel and Gausman, and potentially Zimmer from what I've heard, have the chance to be legit #1/#2 types. I'll see Zimmer and Appel on Saturday, so I'll have more thoughts on them early next week.

Three guys I know you like, Dahl, Stroman and Jankowski, could all end-up steals when they come off the board. Depending on how the rest of his spring shapes up, Dahl may end up the "Lorenzen" of this draft -- five tool potential but too uneven a spring to get teams to spend big on him. If that happens, he could come out of Auburn as an easy top 5 pick.

Great stuff. Thanks. What do you consider the risk factors with Buxton?

Two big issues. First, very uneven competition so far in his playing career, so he hasn't been faced with tons of advanced stuff, and also hasn't had to deal with tons of failure. Second, as a slightly underdeveloped talent, he'll likely be heavily reliant on the developmental system of his drafting team (all prospects are, but his dependence would be higher than someone like, say, Albert Almora).

In his favor is the fact that he has great physical tools and has at least shown some capacity for quick adjustments in showcase settings.

Almora doesn't appear to be as physically strong as Buxton or Dahl. Watched a little video. Meh.

Buxton or Giolito could grow on me, because of the high ceilings. Zunino might be the safest high pick in the draft. One of those guys will be there at #4. If not, the O's have the pick of the 3 college pitchers which wouldn't be the worst thing.

Sounds about right.

True, Almora isn't going to hit you 35 homeruns. But he can give you plus defense with a strong arm, plus hit tool and average to above-average power (call it potentially 17-25 homeruns) if everything clicks. He may not look like a thumper, but he has no issue driving the ball -- even with wood.

All our bust belongs to Zunino.

There should be someone available that doesn't command much, if any, over traditional slot, but is still more than worthy of a fourth overall selection. It's a solid draft to be picking 4th, and Baltimore could easily end-up with the best player in the draft, looking back four years from now.

Good to hear. But why mention "that doesn't command much, if any, over traditional slot"? Do you foresee money being an issue with this first pick?

I really want Giolito to heal well and show this late in the year, then we pick him and get another Bundy in our system! If not...Buxton. But I am not asking for much.

If he does that, he probably doesn't get to four. Better to hope that he's not all the way back at the time of the draft. Elbows don't scare me like shoulders do and I think they are being overly cautious (and rightfully so) with his injury. I would pop him at #4 even if he's not throwing 100% by the draft but he probably will be.

As long as he's throwing again a little before the draft I think he moves back up to the top 5, but injury concerns will do funny things. Look at Rendon last year. He's a SPECIAL arm though, no doubt. Like up near (probably a tick below) Bundy.