+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 26
  1. #1
    justD's Avatar
    justD is offline Plus Member since 1/06 Major League Starter Reputation Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    1,135

    Clubhouse Confidential: Jeter vs Ripken

    I watched this episode yesterday, was hoping they could lend some rationality to the "Is Jeter overrated?" discussion. I liked what I heard, even though part of me still wanted the range values to hold more weight in these guys' minds.

    The comparison is over a 14-year period in each of their careers.

    In leading up to the two interviews with Rob Neyer and Larry Bowa, Brian (the host) ended up choosing Ripken based on Cal being a "defensive giant," even with the lesser offensive numbers. [He does also note that Cal's best offensive year, he had an 11.0 WAR...nice.]

    So here's Rob Neyer's interview first. My favorite lines? "They just needed him not to be bad." and "I'd have to dismiss modern defensive statistics [to pick Jeter] and I just can't do that."


    And then, here's Larry Bowa. It's all about how they cut the grass.


  2. #2
    Can_of_corn's Avatar
    Can_of_corn is offline Plus Member since 12/09 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    31,022
    I liked how they gave props for Belanger rating higher then Smith defensively.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Hung on for the ride.
    Posts
    61,643
    Quote Originally Posted by Can_of_corn View Post
    I liked how they gave props for Belanger rating higher then Smith defensively.
    Me too! I also think it was convenient that they did not factor the average of 13 replacement level games per year that Jeter required to equal Cal's omnipresence.

    Cal Ripken, the "Titan," never required Enrique Wilson and his .639 OPS to carry his gym bag.
    Last edited by weams; 03-29-2012 at 07:14 AM.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    18,773
    Neyer wrote an article on this recently.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Hung on for the ride.
    Posts
    61,643
    Quote Originally Posted by TonySoprano View Post
    Neyer wrote an article on this recently.
    Second, you assume that every single sophisticated defensive metric is just flat-wrong; that he's been not a poor defensive shortstop for most of his career, but that instead he's been average, at least.

    If you want to award Jeter 10 extra Wins Above Replacement for his intangibles and his postseason play, and make him an average defensive shortstop, you've got him at roughly Cal Ripken's level.
    Great find. I knew I could count on your research skills.
    Last edited by weams; 03-28-2012 at 09:47 PM.

  6. #6
    CA-ORIOLE is online now Plus Members Since 9/11 Hall of Fame Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    SOCAL
    Posts
    13,643
    Eh, Cal's numbers are held up by Brefs TZ and fWAR by FP% while Jeter is under the microscope of UZR (fWaR) and TZ. rWar and fWar are going to weight Ripken favorably for his sure handedness. Other systems looking at range such as BP's FRAA and RF9 paint a different picture of Cal's defensive ability. I saw more than enough groundballs beyond Cal's reach and into the OF to convince me he wasn't as great as his reputation. Does anybody that saw Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken play really believe that Cal Ripken was almost as good (if not better) than Ozzie Smith defensively because he could position himself? Because that's what rWar and fWar would have you believe. The biggest factor I see here (not mentioned that I could see or accounted for in WAR) was that Jeter is far worse by DRS/Fielding Bible than he is by UZR.

  7. #7
    OFFNY's Avatar
    OFFNY is offline Plus Member since 3/11 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Brewster, NY
    Posts
    35,514
    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    Great find. I knew I could count on your research skills.
    You've just been promoted, Weams. YOU should be doing the research.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Waynesbar and Grill, PA
    Posts
    74,507
    Quote Originally Posted by justD View Post
    And then, here's Larry Bowa. It's all about how they cut the grass.

    Are you listening, Nicole?



  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Hung on for the ride.
    Posts
    61,643
    Quote Originally Posted by OFFNY View Post
    You've just been promoted, Weams. YOU should be doing the research.
    I am grateful for the efforts others put forward on my behalf.

  10. #10
    DrungoHazewood's Avatar
    DrungoHazewood is online now Hangout Contributor Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    SoMd
    Posts
    34,667
    Quote Originally Posted by CA-ORIOLE View Post
    Eh, Cal's numbers are held up by Brefs TZ and fWAR by FP% while Jeter is under the microscope of UZR (fWaR) and TZ. rWar and fWar are going to weight Ripken favorably for his sure handedness. Other systems looking at range such as BP's FRAA and RF9 paint a different picture of Cal's defensive ability. I saw more than enough groundballs beyond Cal's reach and into the OF to convince me he wasn't as great as his reputation. Does anybody that saw Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken play really believe that Cal Ripken was almost as good (if not better) than Ozzie Smith defensively because he could position himself? Because that's what rWar and fWar would have you believe. The biggest factor I see here (not mentioned that I could see or accounted for in WAR) was that Jeter is far worse by DRS/Fielding Bible than he is by UZR.
    There's a good bit on Tango's blog recently on Jeter, and in the comments there are some real good detailed analysis of his fielding. I think they come to a pretty strong conclusion that he's really, truly been a terrible fielder. At one point there's the following:

    Tango: If we look at the batted ball codes from Retrosheet, the expected out rate is 12.2%... We are then left to ask why does Derek Jeter only convert 11.3% of his BIP into outs, for his career... I have him with 61745 BIP. One SD is 80 outs (or .0013 outs per BIP). He’s 7 SD from the mean, just as Michael is showing with his method.

    Guy: To me, the data Tango presents in 63 is essentially conclusive. The odds that Jeter’s actual BIP distribution was significantly different than average, given all those controls, is so vanishingly small that IMO we can disregard it. Jeter is approximately as bad as WOWY says, and the interesting question is not “how bad was Jeter?” but rather “why do some metrics get Jeter so wrong?”
    I think you're pretty safe in assuming that Jeter has had a significantly worse career value than Cal, unless you put an absoutely massive (and IMO unjustified) weight on Jeter's postseason play that Ripken had no opportunity to match.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    St. Michaels
    Posts
    6,404
    Comparing jeter to Ripken is akin to comparing Hitler to George Washington.

  12. #12
    CA-ORIOLE is online now Plus Members Since 9/11 Hall of Fame Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    SOCAL
    Posts
    13,643
    Quote Originally Posted by DrungoHazewood View Post
    There's a good bit on Tango's blog recently on Jeter, and in the comments there are some real good detailed analysis of his fielding. I think they come to a pretty strong conclusion that he's really, truly been a terrible fielder. At one point there's the following:



    I think you're pretty safe in assuming that Jeter has had a significantly worse career value than Cal, unless you put an absoutely massive (and IMO unjustified) weight on Jeter's postseason play that Ripken had no opportunity to match.
    I don't think there is much doubt that Jeter was below average (and Cal was above average), but there is some concern that Jeter's home/away splits are so drastic over such a large sample that something may be missing here. Yankee Stadium (old) was a notoriously fast IF and that may not be fully accounted for. The away splits (UZR) show Jeter about average and horrid at home. I also think there are several factors weighting in Ripkens favor on his defensive metrics making him appear far better than what he was. Do you think Cal Ripken was almost as goood (if not better) than Ozzie Smith on defense?
    Last edited by CA-ORIOLE; 03-29-2012 at 09:37 AM.

  13. #13
    Can_of_corn's Avatar
    Can_of_corn is offline Plus Member since 12/09 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    31,022
    Quote Originally Posted by CA-ORIOLE View Post
    I don't think there is much doubt that Jeter was below average (and Cal was above average), but there is some concern that Jeter's home/away splits are so drastic over such a large sample that something may be missing here. Yankee Stadium (old) was a notoriously fast IF and that may not be fully accounted for. The away splits (UZR) show Jeter about average and horrid at home. I also think there are several factors weighting in Ripkens favor on his defensive metrics making him appear far better than what he was. Do you think Cal Ripken was as almost as goood (if not better) than Ozzie Smith on defense?

    I think that the absolutely sick plays that Ozzie made could be coloring our overall perception of him as a fielder.

  14. #14
    CA-ORIOLE is online now Plus Members Since 9/11 Hall of Fame Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    SOCAL
    Posts
    13,643
    Quote Originally Posted by Can_of_corn View Post
    I think that the absolutely sick plays that Ozzie made could be coloring our overall perception of him as a fielder.
    While that may be true, I also look at RF9 vs lg RF9 and consider the probability of surehandedness being overvalued in rWAR/fWAR. I also think park factor probably helped Ripken to some extent. TZ splits would indicate that.

    Also, BP has made a lot of effort in developing an historical rating system for fielding.

    So, that would be yes for you I guess.
    Last edited by CA-ORIOLE; 03-29-2012 at 09:52 AM.

  15. #15
    DrungoHazewood's Avatar
    DrungoHazewood is online now Hangout Contributor Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    SoMd
    Posts
    34,667
    Quote Originally Posted by CA-ORIOLE View Post
    Do you think Cal Ripken was almost as goood (if not better) than Ozzie Smith on defense?
    Probably not, but I'm not completely discounting the possibility. Ripken didn't just have good positioning, but also a plus-plus arm. Ozzie had astounding range and flair, but I've read things he's written admitting he had to play several steps closer to the batter than a typical shortstop to make up for his so-so arm. It was almost commonplace for Cal to go deep in the hole, onto the outfield grass, and gun a guy down at first. Ozzie simply couldn't do that.

    And think of how many times you saw Cal do that pirouette move behind second base, or even to the first base side of the bag, several steps into the outfield, then throw the guy out at first. I don't buy that Cal had limited range.

Bookmarks

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts

OriolesHangout.com is an unofficial site and not associated with the Baltimore Orioles and part of Hangout Ventures LLC. Copyright ©2013 | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us