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04-04-2012 12:09 PM #1
HHP: 15 players I am watching out for in 2012
For me, I am focused in on these 15 players(in no particular order) for this season:
Its not that prospects like Delmonico aren't on my radar, its just that these guys are important for many reasons.
BMat: One of the single most important players in this whole organization. This team needs him to establish himself as a solid #2 starter...Someone we can count of to give us close to 200 IP and a sub 4 ERA. He is capable of that. Now, he doesn't have to do that this year but he needs to get back to where he was pre 2011.
Arrieta: It is important for this team to know where they stand with him by the end of this season. He could be a mid rotation guy, a dominant closer or just a normal reliever. The Orioles need this figured out this year. We can't go into next year with the same questions about him that we have had for the last few years.
Britton: Does he pitch this year? If so, how many ML innings can he throw and does he end the year healthy and ready to go for a good offseason workout to be ready to really establish himself in 2013?
Bundy: How quickly does he move and does he stay healthy? He starts in Delmarva but if he is as good as we all think he is, he will not be there by June. He should end the year with 150ish IP and hopefully in Bowie but that seems unlikely with him starting in Delmarva unless he is in Frederick by May. Either way, healthy year and looking like he could be a MLer in 2013 would be great.
Machado: Similar to Bundy. Establish yourself at the lower level, move quickly into Bowie and be prime for a ML roster spot next year. His growth could spur a Hardy trade as well.
Schoop: What position does he end up in? Can he show at the higher levels that his offensive game will still be strong? He has a chance, IMO, of being the starting second or third baseman in 2013...does he cease that?
Markakis: With the lack of an offseason workout program(which he desperately needs..go work with Brady please), I don't expect a big jump in Nick's game this year. However, can he get back to the 40+ doubles, 20ish HR and 370ish OBP guy? If he can, he should have an 800-820 OPS, while playing solid defense. That makes him a valuable player although one that we aren't likely going to have at a bargain price.
Wieters: The most important of all of these guys on the ML roster. Its time for him to put it together offensively. He needs to take that big leap that he was showing at the end of last year. Can he finally be that 850ish OPS guy we all thought/hoped he could be? Or, is he just going to be Yadier Molina with another 40 points of OPS?
Jones: You could argue that he is more important to the future than Wieters because a big first half by him makes him very valuable at the deadline. Will this team trade him? Who knows. But a big year by Jones this year really helps this organization out if they do trade him.
Johnson: If JJ can establish himself as a solid closer, his trade value goes way up and at his salary and with his service time, he could be worth a lot this July or even in the offseason. This team can't worry about the closer position long term just yet, so trading him for a very nice package could prove to be huge for us.
Reimold: Can he take the LF job? The talent is there for him to have one of, if not the highest OPS on the team. He has a very good power + plate discipline combo. He is a right handed version of Luke Scott but with a little more speed but not quite as good defensively. He isn't young but he is young enough where he could be a LF answer for the next 3-5 years, while making very little money.
Reynolds: As Chris talked about, can he improve his defense? Before getting here, he was never even average at third...HOWEVER, he was improving and he wasn't far from average and then he took a big step back last year on routine plays. He has good agility around third...he has a good arm. But the routine plays were problematic for him last year. Improving on that while providing a normal offensive year really jumps his trade value and makes you feel good about picking up his 2013 option if you still have that hole at third.
Hardy: Would like to see him stay healthy and be a little bit better with his OBP. The power should be there although I wouldn't expect 30 bombs again. But, when healthy, he is one of the best SS in baseball. He could have a lot of trade value or, if you keep him, you have a top flight SS for cheap.
Davis: Will he be DFA'd by June or will he get 500 at bats? My guess is he doesn't make it but this team has got to find out. He has the upside of being our Carlos Pena...a guy who just explodes and has a monster year despite the Ks. But he is more likely to fail. If he explodes, having him for very little money is huge for this team going forward.
Tillman: He is in better shape and the velocity is back. Will working with Peterson change him? Will he get back to the prospect level he was before? If so, that's a huge lift to the whole organization. At the very least, perhaps he ends up being a reliever and could be our closer if JJ is traded and Arrieta appears set in the rotation. Either way, him becoming a major contributor to this team helps out the payroll so much
04-04-2012 12:14 PM #2Machado: Similar to Bundy. Establish yourself at the lower level, move quickly into Bowie and be prime for a ML roster spot next year. His growth could spur a Hardy trade as well.
Didn't you get the memo? Word has it that Machado and Schoop start at Bowie.]
04-04-2012 12:16 PM #3
Last I heard Schoop was starting at SS in Bowie and MM was in Frederick.
They changed that?
EDIT: I see it now RZ, thanks. Well, then I would slightly revise what I said about MM and say let's see if he can establish himself at AA against older competition right off the bat and get himself into position for a potential call up this year although I would probably prefer to wait til next year, for service time reasons.
Last edited by Sports Guy; 04-04-2012 at 12:19 PM.
04-04-2012 12:21 PM #4Aberdeen
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04-04-2012 12:23 PM #5
Its funny, I want to win games but really, I want these guys to be traded more because I think it sets us up better for the long term and that is what we need to focus on.
What I really would love to see happen is some trades made and then, once August rolls around, end the year strong like we did in 2010.
04-04-2012 12:26 PM #6
I think if this group is all doing well then DD will do his best to keep as much of them as possible. I think the only way PA increases payroll is by keeping homegrown players like Jones, JJ and Wieters (If Boras allows that.). I doubt very seriously there will be a lot of trading of these types of players unless the team is just crapping the bed and DD goes for another all out rebuild.
04-04-2012 12:26 PM #7Aberdeen
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04-04-2012 01:01 PM #8
Well, you seem to have the entire OD lineup minus Betemit and Andino. I'd probably add Andino/ Flaherty to the mix of players I'll be watching.
04-04-2012 01:15 PM #9
You with the trades SG. Jones, Johnson, Hardy if Machado comes quick? You can't count on snookering teams out of talent in trades. It's just not the way to get ahead long term. Remember, teams know their own prospects better than anyone else. I do agree they need to do something with Jones by the deadline but the first option should be extending him, not trading him.
04-04-2012 01:26 PM #10
You don't think Jones, JJ and Hardy could bring in talent that could help long term?
If JJ has a very good first half, on the heels of an excellent season, combined with salary and service time, you don't think his value is that much? Guarantee if that is the case, the Orioles fetch a better package than what SD got for Adams last deadline.
Last edited by Sports Guy; 04-04-2012 at 01:29 PM.
04-04-2012 01:52 PM #11Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame
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I'm also interested in Chen and Hunter. They are both young enough, under control long enough and have enough potential to have impact for several years. You've never thought much of Hunter but I think you sell him short.
Machado and Bundy are incredibly important due to their ceilings. Plus when Machado is ready it sets us up to trade Hardy or Reynolds.
It will be an interesting year following all these guys.
04-04-2012 02:00 PM #12
Minor nitpick on the OP; I think they are targeting Bundy at 125-130 innings. Will only pitch 3 innings or so in his early starts in Delmarva before graduating to 4 and 5 innings in an effort to stay under 130 IP but still go well into August before they have to shut him down.
Last edited by NCRaven; 04-04-2012 at 02:03 PM.
04-04-2012 03:01 PM #13
I now think he has a chance of being a good #4 starter. I still like him in the pen more but do think he may have some value as a starter.
Let me tell you where I undervalue him...For some reason, I think of him as older than he is.
I will also be watching him and Chen this year and look forward to what they can bring however I just view these 15 as "more to watch" type guys for many of the reasons I listed. I will obviously be watching more than 15 players this year but these 15 are my top 15.
04-04-2012 03:24 PM #14Plus Member since 11/03 All-Star
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The guys I will really be keeping an eye on are Matusz, Hunter, Tillman, Chen, and Wada. The first three because I want to see what kind of effect Brady's work out routine will have on their confidence and performance. I think Chen is a very interesting pitcher. I've only seen him once but it looks like he has a very solid delivery. He could be good. Wada, I haven't seen at all but he has this Jamie Moyer type attraction for me. Last but not least, I want to see how,Flaherty does, I just have good feeling about him.
04-04-2012 03:25 PM #15Plus Member since 12/08 Major League Starter
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To me, the O's current assets have team control / maturity date of 2013-2014. The cluster of Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Hardy will still be under team control. Anything post that date, these players may leave as FAs.
If you start dealing assets such as Hardy, Jones, Johnson, etc for prospects, well that pushes the next potential contention window back to an indefinite time period, as the O's assets will dwindle to Matusz, Britton, Bundy, Tillman, Machado, Schoop. That's no where near enough and contention will depend on roster supplemention beyond just additional prospects fetched in trades.
I agree with your 15 players to watch, because if each progress, I do think it increases the probability of a 2014 wildcard run. If there are some duds in there, well, maybe it's time to pack up, deal the assets and fall back to 2017-2018.
While TB will likely still be strong, I do think that BOS and NYY will take major steps back in 2014 due to age and inability to supplement via FA. Those teams will still be carrying the averagish (at best) performances of Jeter, ARod, Youkilis, Ortiz, etc.