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04-08-2012 05:47 PM #1
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You all will laugh hard when you see this.
Espn.com Standings.
Orioles and Rays in first place 3-0. Take a look at the playoff column, each teams chance of making the playoffs.
Orioles 3-0 with a 16.7% chance to make the playoffs
Yankees 0-3 with a 56.3% chance to make the playoffs.
All AL east teams with a higher percentage than us right now, haha.
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04-08-2012 05:48 PM #2
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16.7% is being generous.
Originally Posted by Prometheus
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04-08-2012 05:52 PM #3
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Originally Posted by Can_of_corn
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04-08-2012 05:53 PM #4
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Yeah, I am as big of a sunshine warrior Oriole fan as there is, and even I have to concede that at this point, we really shouldn't be given more than a 10% chance at best. Originally Posted by Can_of_corn
Can't complain about the team, though. You can only win the games one at a time, and against the team that is on your schedule ...... and that's what they have done so far.
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04-08-2012 06:39 PM #5
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Orioles magic
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04-08-2012 08:32 PM #6
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It could be Sept. 1, and our record could be 75-60 and they would still say it's a 16.7 % chance.
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04-08-2012 08:41 PM #7
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And it would still be generous. Originally Posted by El Gordo
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04-08-2012 08:39 PM #8
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Wow it was at 13.6% this morning. That is a big move up after only 1 game! Originally Posted by Prometheus
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04-08-2012 08:41 PM #9
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It wasn't one game. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all lost. Originally Posted by RichmondVA Orio
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04-08-2012 08:50 PM #10
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Yes the other teams also playing lost one game as well, which explains why it is now up to 17% since the OP. Originally Posted by Can_of_corn
Last edited by RichmondVA Orio; 04-08-2012 at 09:43 PM.
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04-08-2012 09:02 PM #11
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If this team is still in first by September, then we'll talk. 3 wins at the beginning of the year has absolutely no relevance to their chances of making the playoffs.
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04-08-2012 09:33 PM #12
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Hey, I'll take three wins any time! Originally Posted by Basketeer
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04-08-2012 09:55 PM #13
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I agree with this, but not according to the website ESPN uses for its (POFF) playoff chances column. Originally Posted by Basketeer
http://www.coolstandings.com/faq.asp?sn=2012
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04-09-2012 08:27 AM #14
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Well, sure it does. Let's assume the O's were a 70-win (.432) team coming into the year, based on true talent. You can reasonably also assume that they're still a 70-win team on true talent, but that now they'll win (very roughly) 43.2% of the remaining 159 games. So that means they're a 71- or 72-win team right now. A 71 or 72 win team will have a slightly higher chance at having everything fall their way and making the playoffs than a true talent 70-win team. Originally Posted by Basketeer
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04-09-2012 09:22 AM #15
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The Red Sox losing one game to the Orioles at the end of the year has absolutely no relevance to their chances of making the playoffs. Oh wait. Originally Posted by Basketeer
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