You all will laugh hard when you see this.

[SrMeowMeow]

No kidding. Do you understand how probability works?

Of course. Well enough to know that 3 wins to begin the season of 162 games has an insignificant effect on the probability of the O's making the playoffs. Probability in this case completely ignores outliers (inevitable injuries, traditionally poor play in the middle of the season, the fact alone that there are 159 games yet to be played).

The O's are also on track for a record of 162-0. That's statistically proven. But does that sound realistic to you?

So that's a no, then?

[Basketeer]

So that's a no, then?

I guess you can't read.

[DrungoHazewood]

The O's are also on track for a record of 162-0. That's statistically proven. But does that sound realistic to you?

Um, no. Four days ago the O's were on track for 70 wins plus or minus some amount. Now that they've won 100% of their first three games they're on track for 71 or 72 wins, plus or minus some amount. That certainly seems realistic.

[square634]

/Begins writing an explanation of conditional probabilities and Bayes rule.

/Realizes it's a lost cause, especially while typing on a phone.

(Note, conditional probabilities aren't even necessary for this analysis; they are probably just doing what Drungo is in this thread and assuming independence).

[Basketeer]

Um, no. Four days ago the O's were on track for 70 wins plus or minus some amount. Now that they've won 100% of their first three games they're on track for 71 or 72 wins, plus or minus some amount. That certainly seems realistic.

I agree with what you're saying, we're just arguing matters of conditionality.

But my point this entire time: even if the O's going 3-0 to start the season increases their probability of making the playoffs, it's by such a marginal amount that it really has no significant effect. It's simply too early and not enough games have been played. If they were to string together consecutive series victories, the odds would of course continue to improve.

Regardless, a series sweep is a great way to start the season. Especially with the effort we got from the much-maligned starting rotation.

[tilgaham]

/Begins writing an explanation of conditional probabilities and Bayes rule.

/Realizes it's a lost cause, especially while typing on a phone.

(Note, conditional probabilities aren't even necessary for this analysis; they are probably just doing what Drungo is in this thread and assuming independence).

This.

I'm in an upper level STAT class next semester that allows you to basically pick a large data set and come up with some conclusive findings using regression in R. I don't know quite how it works yet, but I'm very excited to make mine about baseball stats. It would be fun to present the findings on the board.

[OFFNY]

.
Right his minute, I'm not laughing at anything, I don't care what the standings say.

I just hope that we can come back and play well the rest of this game to at least make the game close, if not win it.

[atomic]

No doubt, but what strikes me this year is the Starting Pitching depth that was severely lacking last year. If injury takes one of the guys out of the rotation, there are at least 4 viable options available to take that position up. Wada, Bergesen, Tillman, Eveland, Britton (once he's back from the DL). Also, assuming Matusz is back to form, that rotation already has a much higher ceiling than it did the year prior.

I'm not predicting playoffs here, but the Orioles are in much better shape in 2012 than they were to start 2011.

I don't see how you get this. Bergesen and Tillman were options last year. Bad options but still options. Matusz could pitch exactly like last year and then you put Britton in his place if he gets healthy. If everyone pitches like they did last year this will be a terrible team. We need guys to improve dramatically compared to last year and their entire career to even win 70+ games. Hopefully that will happen but it is a lot to hope for.

Anyway winning games over the one team in the american league that you were thought to be better than does not make you have more chance of making the playoffs. If I can see a few of starters put 3 good starts in a row than I will be start to feel good about the team being better than last year. Until than nothing has changed.