Is Avery redeeming himself in Norfolk?

[LookinUp]

I share Tony's skepticism, but it's worth noting that sometimes raw potential does turn into an actual good ML player. I don't have any confidence in our previous regime to help Avery take that next step, but there's always hope that this regime is different. It's also worth noting that Avery seems to have the right makeup to give himself a chance. By the very limited second hand accounts I've heard, he seems to be a good kid who is putting in some work.

From day 1, everyone said that he'd need reps to make the sport more natural for him. I understand he's at AAA already, but I suspect he still needs a lot of reps to reach anything near his potential in the field, on the bases, or against good pitching.

[Tony-OH]

Still though, there is value in a fourth outfielder and it is starting to sound as if that is a realistic end product here.

Yep, and I think that's the role he'll eventually settle into if all goes well.

[hoosiers]

Yep, and I think that's the role he'll eventually settle into if all goes well.

Tony, any reports on Avery and the early progress this year from the Os? Is he laying off (or fouling off) some pitches he would K on previously? Are things coming together for him? Or is the pessimism here warranted based on the flashes of success we've seen before - succeeded by periods of utter frustration?

[ATO UMD]

I wonder if the following things factored into Avery's aggressive promotion:
-One, the Orioles were worried he'd reopen his football recruiting if he wasn't satisfied with his progress.
-Two, they are trying to gauge if he can man centerfield should the team trade Adam Jones

[RZNJ]

I'm taking a wait and see attitude with Avery but I would disagree that he's a 4th outfielder "if things go well". He's probably a 4th outfielder if all goes bad and he continues to be the same hitter he's always been. If he somehow has discovered plate discipline (wait and see) then he's a potential ML leadoff hitter and starting LF or CF.

[Stotle]

I'm taking a wait and see attitude with Avery but I would disagree that he's a 4th outfielder "if things go well". He's probably a 4th outfielder if all goes bad and he continues to be the same hitter he's always been. If he somehow has discovered plate discipline (wait and see) then he's a potential ML leadoff hitter and starting LF or CF.

Right. If all goes well, he's a first division starter. The tools are there and performance, considering age and level, certainly doesn't preclude him being a first division starter.

Is that a likely outcome? No. but even if his growth is just "solid" over the next two years, he should have 4th outfielder value.

[Tony-OH]

Tony, any reports on Avery and the early progress this year from the Os? Is he laying off (or fouling off) some pitches he would K on previously? Are things coming together for him? Or is the pessimism here warranted based on the flashes of success we've seen before - succeeded by periods of utter frustration?

I don't have any reports on Avery this year yet but if there is any "pessimism" Its because most people tend to believe four years of pro ball stats outweigh less than a month full of stats. I'll be happy for the guy if he truly is starting to put everything together because he is a hard worker for the most part and seems to have a positive attitude. The guy has never hit lefties, struggles continually on routes in center, makes the occasional base running gaff despite some outstanding speed, and rolls over too often on breaking pitches. Based on what I've seen over the last three years, he's got some skills but a lot of holes that won't be easy to overcome. He probably will settle into a nice little career as a 4th outfielder or maybe a lower division ineffective starter, but I think anyone expecting more is setting themselves up for a letdown.

[Tony-OH]

I'm taking a wait and see attitude with Avery but I would disagree that he's a 4th outfielder "if things go well". He's probably a 4th outfielder if all goes bad and he continues to be the same hitter he's always been. If he somehow has discovered plate discipline (wait and see) then he's a potential ML leadoff hitter and starting LF or CF.

No, if all goes bad he becomes a AAAA up down guy who can't make enough contact with major league pitching. He has never hit left-handed pitching effectively so he's limited to facing righties even in the best case scenario. I know he has his supporters, including Stotle who I respect, but I just haven't seen enough from him to ever get excited about him being anything more than a role player in the majors.

[Stotle]

No, if all goes bad he becomes a AAAA up down guy who can't make enough contact with major league pitching. He has never hit left-handed pitching effectively so he's limited to facing righties even in the best case scenario. I know he has his supporters, including Stotle who I respect, but I just haven't seen enough from him to ever get excited about him being anything more than a role player in the majors.

Agreed, floor is definitely someone w/o MLB value. My appraisal after last year was:

Ceiling: Average starting center fielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

I still stand by that as a reasonable assessment.

[Tony-OH]

Agreed, floor is definitely someone w/o MLB value. My appraisal after last year was:



I still stand by that as a reasonable assessment.

I don't disagree with that really at all. His absolute ceiling could be average major league center fielder but I'd probably put a 5% chance of that happening. We really are a lot closer than I thought on our assessment of him.

[RZNJ]

The Avery watch continues. 1 hit, 2 more walks, and 3 stolen bases.

[Tony-OH]

He's red hot no doubt, and I like the fact he's walking. Who knows, maybe something clicked for him? Glad to see him doing well. I hope he proves me wrong but it's a long season and we've seen X flash us this promise before.

[LookinUp]

He's red hot no doubt, and I like the fact he's walking. Who knows, maybe something clicked for him? Glad to see him doing well. I hope he proves me wrong but it's a long season and we've seen X flash us this promise before.

Good organizations are built with pleasant surprises.

I made that up, but pleasant surprises have to be contributors more often than not, right?

[Tony-OH]

Good organizations are built with pleasant surprises.

I made that up, but pleasant surprises have to be contributors more often than not, right?

The Orioles are certainly overdue for one.

[Enjoy Terror]

I wonder what clicked. He's up to .288/.405/.470 from the .276/.364 /.414 when I posted this.