HHP: Hard Data on Ball/Strike Calls - How Good/Bad are the Umpires

[CA-ORIOLE]

Both points ignore the fact that the strike zone is objective.

I'm not sure, exactly, what you're "not buying" and haven't been since you started attempting some unclear criticism of this data. Having command within the strike zone is a skill that will aid individual pitchers regardless of whether the exact strike zone is enforced. That doesn't mean that strikes shouldn't be strikes and/or balls should be called strikes because the result-location was intended. Intent has literally nothing to do with the fact of a strike.

Well, since umpires are humans and are making the calls, it's obviously not objective. It's subjective.

If you want to be-moan the fact that the stike zone isn't called called by pitch F/x instead of an umpire, I'm with you. I've thought that for a long time. If that's the point, we can end the discussion right here.

The difference here is people think that the Orioles are getting screwed because they're the Orioles and not team X or we don't have veteran player Y. I simply don't buy it. I think the Orioles are getting screwed at both ends because of the characteristics of their players. We have guys who are not covering the outside corner and can't or won't go the opposite way and are getting buried. Other teams have guys who are covering the outside corner and doing better. Other teams have pitchers with better FB command that are working in/out. We aren't. This was blatantly obvious in the Yankee series when we went down looking and they went down swinging/hitting. My point is that's going to skew the data that is being represented here. Now when I can see data by quadrant, with more precise locations, and pro-rated (not plus minus) then maybe I'll buy into this (i.e., the O's being screwed). It may be we're still on the losing end, but I'm going to guess it's narrowed quite significantly over the process that is being used here and there are still other factors in play (mainly command/framing).

When Arrieta is set up inside and ends up 2 inches outside, he's not going to get the call. That's not because he's Jake Arrieta of the Baltimore Orioles, it's because it's the way the umpires deal with guys with poor command. Now I'm not going to say that vets like CC Sabathia don't get the benefit of close calls, but he gets a lot of calls Arrieta doesn't because he has command and Arrieta doesn't (This used to piss me off with Danny Cabrera to no end. He would never get a close call). Anyway, not a shock to see a big differential there. Matusz's FB command has been almost as poor. The journeyman pitcher he faced the other night wasn't CC Sabathia.

I'm not sure which game/chart Frobby showed, but it basically showed us not getting low calls and the other team getting outside calls. This is not shocking at all either. That's what I'm seeing.

If I said something you don't understand, disagree with, or think is wrong, then let me know. That always helps. I thought my previous point(s) were clear. You actually repped me on them (thanks btw). Sorry, and all due respect to Sangar's great research here, but I haven't seen enough to join the pity party yet (not talking about you or Sangar).

[CA-ORIOLE]

But these effects exist, and pitchers use them when they can. You'll often hear an announcer talking about a pitcher trying to establish a certain strike zone or pitch. And if some pitchers can do this successfully, that's one of the reasons they're successful.

Been done for 100 years.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I fail to see why so many people don't get this. The strike zone is a basic concept and has no gray areas. Either it is, or it isn't.

Umpires who try to read intent, or who reward a pitcher for execution, are placing their judgement above the rules.

I completely get it. It's the same issue with Nick. You can complain and whine or deal with reality. If the issue is it stinks, I'm in agreement, but this has basically evolved into "the umps are against the Orioles"..... Oh, woe is me stuff. That's what I don't buy.

[FuManchu]

[FuManchu]

[JohnnyK27]

So basically he called strikes for one pitcher and then called them balls for the other. Talk about lack of integrity.

[Frobby]

So basically he called strikes for one pitcher and then called them balls for the other. Talk about lack of integrity.

I don't think anyone's saying he did it on purpose. But it was a bad umpring job, no matter how you look at it.

I do think CA-Oriole has a point that good pitchers can identify the areas where the umps are calling "cheap" strikes and hit those spots. Especially a guy like Haren who is one of the best control pitchers in the league (less than one BB/start last year). The O's need to get better at doing this.

[osfan83]

Great thread. This, and the complete payroll disparity in baseball is part of what is moving me further away from the sport. Whether intentinal or not, the deck is stacked in favore of big payroll teams with big named stars. Not only do the Yankees have the financial ability to out spend their competition by 2 or 3 to 1, but they get more judgement calls their way because they out spend and bring in players with susperstar reputations.

MLB continues to slip closer to WWE and proffesional boxing status, and away from being the national past time. We all know the league is not close to being a level playing field, and for me, it takes a lot away from the enjoyment of the game. I know many basketball fans that have moved away from the NBA in favore of watching college or HS ball...maybe that's my answer for baseball.

[weams]

I tried to highlight this yesterday, but kept getting something wrong in the format. Good stuff everyone.

[sangar]

I completely get it. It's the same issue with Nick. You can complain and whine or deal with reality. If the issue is it stinks, I'm in agreement, but this has basically evolved into "the umps are against the Orioles"..... Oh, woe is me stuff. That's what I don't buy.

I agree with the "poor pitiful me" attitude being incorrect. I don't see it as an anti-Oriole bias, I see it as an institutionalized bias that favors opinion over fact. The umpire's job is to interpret the rules, but they have redefined their position and given themselves authority over the rules. What you are saying about their reasoning sounds accurate (to some degree justified) and I'm not arguing against you. I'm saying it's wrong for them to assume this authority.

[canonfaz]

I would love to see the umpire's union say that they realize that there have been some inconsistencies and that they are working to get better. That will never happen though.

[srock]

Skanar, what are you using to analyze the pitch f/x data? Is it in a shared database somewhere I can hack against?

Its been on the back burner for awhile (way back, new baby, much work) but I would love to have a django or ruby interface to this data with a database set to import new data every morning.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree with the "poor pitiful me" attitude being incorrect. I don't see it as an anti-Oriole bias, I see it as an institutionalized bias that favors opinion over fact. The umpire's job is to interpret the rules, but they have redefined their position and given themselves authority over the rules. What you are saying about their reasoning sounds accurate (to some degree justified) and I'm not arguing against you. I'm saying it's wrong for them to assume this authority.

The closest analog in my opinion is tennis: would anyone claim that it's okay for line-judges to simply give Federer three extra inches because he's proven he can locate? Of course not. Because a tennis court is an objective map.

Everything CA-O says is true (his diagnosis is 100% apt, and I agree it's not "cheating," or likely "conscious") but the fact that umps are using such shoddy heuristics for what is supposed to be an objective map is a serious problem. If the issue is ump location, then that needs to change. If the issue is ump skill, then that needs to change. If the issue is a kind of bounded rationality (i.e., assumptions making up for what they can't catch) then that needs to change.

[skanar]

Skanar, what are you using to analyze the pitch f/x data? Is it in a shared database somewhere I can hack against?

Its been on the back burner for awhile (way back, new baby, much work) but I would love to have a django or ruby interface to this data with a database set to import new data every morning.

I just did it manually: looked at the pitch chart for each game and counted balls and called strikes in and out of the PitchF/X strike zone. That's one reason the analysis is so rudimentary; I'm just making a quick in/out decision for each pitch and counting them up.

Brooks Baseball does provide data from each pitcher/game as a table, including (I think) horizontal and vertical distances, but I don't know if you can make calls on their database.

[Lucky Jim]

But these effects exist, and pitchers use them when they can. You'll often hear an announcer talking about a pitcher trying to establish a certain strike zone or pitch. And if some pitchers can do this successfully, that's one of the reasons they're successful.

See my point re: tennis. I understand the strategy of using a weakness in the game to your advantage, that doesn't mean that baseball shouldn't alleviate that weakness.

The fact is, we're dealing with really shoddy technology. And when better technology exists, shoddiness should not be countenanced.