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04-25-2012 09:23 PM #1
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That Guthrie deal is looking awfully good right about now...
I know its early on but give DD some props on the Guthrie trade... JG is getting shelled while Hammel is unhittable and Lindstroms throwing gas at the end of games. Nice first trade DD you have my attention.
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04-25-2012 09:26 PM #2
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I was just thinking this and about to post the same thing. I was very much against the trade initially. I felt Hammel was a #5 starter at best and Lindstrom was a middle of the road reliever. It is still early and it could still back fire, but if Hammel can be a solid middle of the rotation starter, it's definitely worth the deal.
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04-25-2012 09:32 PM #3
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Only 29 years old too.
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04-25-2012 09:35 PM #4
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I really think we are going to see Hammel throw a no-no this year.
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04-25-2012 09:36 PM #5
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Rep for everyone who defended it!
(Oh, wait, it was like me and one other person.)
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04-25-2012 09:39 PM #6
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I like you LJ, but there are 52 posters who graded this trade better than you at the time. And many who graded it the same. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/foru...do=showresults
Originally Posted by Lucky Jim
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04-25-2012 09:41 PM #7
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Sounds like that's a lot of rep you have to give out LJ! Originally Posted by Icterus galbula
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04-25-2012 09:41 PM #8
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Wow I gave it a D ... I'm eating Crow Originally Posted by Icterus galbula
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04-25-2012 09:42 PM #9
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Yeah I thought there were a fair number of backers on that. Good find on the poll. Originally Posted by Icterus galbula
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04-25-2012 09:43 PM #10
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Ha! I gave it a D-/F. **** you Miller192. Originally Posted by Icterus galbula
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04-25-2012 09:44 PM #11
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I was very skeptical about the deal, but man, they need to investigate Duquette for highway robbery! Hammel looks so much better than his billing. Lindstrom is just gravy for the deal.
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04-25-2012 09:45 PM #12
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Same here. We suck. Originally Posted by Miller192
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04-25-2012 09:46 PM #13
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There were a lot of Rox fans strongly against that trade.
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04-25-2012 09:47 PM #14
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The pitcher they traded for and the one pitching now are two different guys. Add a plus 2 seamer and it's a different pitcher than what COL had. Originally Posted by waroriole
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04-25-2012 09:49 PM #15
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Ha. You have no idea if those votes came after my eloquent defense of the trade in the thread.* That said, did you read that thread - it was vicious. And there really weren't many vocal supporters of the trade. I could at least see why we did it from a contract-perspective. Here are my actual thoughts on why we did it from a talent perspective, from a day later: Originally Posted by Icterus galbula
That said, you're right. There were apparently a relatively silent 50 people who supported the trade.Colorado is a more difficult place to pitch in than Camden. I think the AL East issue has merit, but not sure why we're worried about OPACY. One thing to note is that Colorado is off-the-charts high for LD park factor, while Camden seems to suppress the issue. Hammel has had an elevated LD% the last few years, and the Orioles may think that they get a context-bump in performance from that alone, w/o any tweaking. Colorado also suppresses K%, and performance similar to 2009-2010 could theoretically result in a very respectable 8ish K/9.
One of the reasons I imagine the K-rate is suppressed is atmospheric. Hammel has two above-average to plus- pitches - his curve and slider. Both are negatively impacted in Colorado. Not all pitchers (especially those who can command a plus-fastball) are going to take the same hit in that park, but Hammel may have been a particularly poor fit, all things considered. This issue may be exacerbated a bit by the fact that, according to scouting reports I've read, Hammel likes to go to his breaking pitches with two strikes.
None of this is sure-fire. In fact, take it with a grain of salt. For instance, while his splits in Colorado appear to generally favor his away outings, he was better at home last year. Likewise, his K-rates have always been higher at home, in Colorado. I'm not sure this empties out the argument completely - though it certainly may. I don't write off the fact that Hammel may have adapted to pitch against his strengths in Colorado, however.
Again, grain of salt, etc. But these are possible wild-card factors that the O's may have taken into consideration.
*Can I make a lawyerly distinction between voting in support (but silently) and defending, as I did? Yes. Yes I can.
Last edited by Lucky Jim; 04-25-2012 at 09:51 PM.
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