Redskins 2012 Draft Predictions

[TiredofLosing20]

https://twitter.com/#!/evansilva/sta...65523655892992

If that's how they felt and they were able to get him in round 4, then I'm fine with it. Rex will be the backup this year and they will groom Cousins to take that roll. If RGIII gets injured or is ineffective after this year, then you have a homegrown, high quality backup ready to step in. If not, pull a Kolb/Cassel/Schaub and get something for him. Either way, he's quality depth and we need that as much as anything else.

I think the problem with your scenarios above is that in order to get any value for Cousins in a trade, he has to play. That is what ties the three guys you listed above together. They played and had enough level of success to get some value for them. If Cousins is playing, then the Redskins are in real trouble. I don't see any reason to use a 4th round pick on a back up QB in the same draft that you are picking your franchise QB.

[Don Quixote]

Eagles fan here... But wanted to get Redskins fan take on the Redskins taking Cousins? IMO, it was sort of a wasted pick. Given the amount (and value) of picks they gave up for RGIII, it seems to me they should have used every pick available to find other starters. To me, the Cousins pick made no sense. Maybe they are looking at trying to flip him down the road but for that to happen he has to get on the field.

It's a possibility they might like down the road to flip him, but for now I think it was all about getting Beck and Grossman out of Washington and having a more serviceable backup situation. As you saw, right after the Cousins pick occurred, Beck was released. Grossman is just going to be around as a glorified tutor this year, pretty much, unless something really bad happens with/to Griffin. Cousins looks to shake out as the third quarterback and slot in to the backup role after Grossman is let go. The team wants a more solid quarterback corps, and part of that is reducing the talent gap between the starter and the backup. They want two quarterbacks that give them the opportunity to win games. They've hardly had one quarterback fit the bill, let alone two. If things progress well, I think Cousins will see significant game time in the preseason, and a scheme may be instituted where Grossman is the second-stringer, but doesn't get to play until last so that Cousins can get some reps against at least second-stringers, and maybe even some starters if teams leave them in for long enough. I also think Cousins could get a starting nod in the last preseason game if the team elects, like many do, to give a lot of starters some rest.

As to the wealth let go via the picks in the trade, I am still uneasy about it. Sure, they got the player they wanted, a very talented player, but it would have been more palatable had there been one less first-round pick involved. If Griffin is far short of "All-World" by the end of the 2013 season, that would be a crushing blow to the franchise considering what they gave up. The scenario no one wants to imagine is two years of underperformance, whether it's because of him, the line, or the receiving corps, and still not having the ability the following offseason to draft an immediate impact player (unless one unexpectedly slips). Regardless, as they move forward in the draft during the next couple of years, expect more of the same moves that have typified the past couple of years - trading down a few spots in a round to get an extra pick, when it's feasible. The best they can hope for in that scenario as far as picking up potential starters is to pick up some extra third-rounders if they feel comfortable with some second-round trade downs (I think they still have their second-rounders, though I'm not 100% on that); they can also pick up some extra late-round depth, as the recent pattern has been.

[CrimsonTribe]

I think the problem with your scenarios above is that in order to get any value for Cousins in a trade, he has to play. That is what ties the three guys you listed above together. They played and had enough level of success to get some value for them. If Cousins is playing, then the Redskins are in real trouble. I don't see any reason to use a 4th round pick on a back up QB in the same draft that you are picking your franchise QB.

Flynn has had 2 starts in 4 years and a grand total of 132 pass attempts. Schaub had 2 starts in 3 years for the Falcons and a grand total of 161 pass attempts. Cassel was a different situation, but he had 39 pass attempts before New England decided to go with him as their starter when Brady got injured. Kolb had 7 starts and a total of 319 pass attempts in four seasons with the Eagles. My bet is that if Cousins is kept around as the backup for 3-4 seasons he will get some garbage time experience and a few spot starts along the way much like Flynn and Schaub got.

In any event, if Allen/Shanahans thought Cousins was the 3rd best QB in the draft and a possible 2nd round talent (read that somewhere else), then I don't mind them taking him in the 4th. It's not like you find a lot of starters in the 4th and we upgraded the backup at an important position. Just because RGIII is the new savior of the franchise does not mean that you turn down a gift like Cousins in the 4th or fail to prepare for his downside.

Additionally, Cousins is in the long-time starter, hard-worker, team-leader mold that the Redskins have been focusing on in the Shanahan-era drafts. If anything, I think he and RGIII are both high-character guys who will work together to learn our system and push each other. If RGIII is even half the leader that everyone thinks he is, then I don't think there's any downside in bringing along another high-character young guy to help push him.

[backwardsk]

If this was the 2010 draft where they only had a 1, 4, 6, and three 7s, then I'd have some trouble with this pick. But, without the Cousins pick, they've had 20 picks in the last two years. Let that sink in, 20 picks.

However with that pick, I think it's guaranteed that they'll carry 3 qbs. So that's one less spot for the other players. Who does that affect the most? My guess would be Banks.

Second, picking 2 guards before the tackle indicates that they are more comfortable with Brown's recovery than lichtensteiger's. How many linemen willy they carry? 9? 10? I could see both Cook and Hurt being odd men out.

Prior to the draft, I expected them to take fliers on a RB and CB with speed late. The last pick has blazing speed and can play ST, while I'm not sure about the other RB. Sounds like he can play some fullback. I wonder if they only go with 4 RB/FB--Helu, Royster, young, and Morris to allow the additional roster spots for QB and OL.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, Boswell's not a fan of the Cousins pick:

In my Sunday column I called the Redskins drafting of Kirk Cousins in the 4th round as “moronic.”

I’d like to change my tune this morning: it was “utterly moronic.”

Cut to the chase. Since ’91 more than two-thirds of all quarterbacks taken in the 4th round have been complete busts; and less than 10 percent of those 4th-rd quarterbacks have had significant careers __Kyle Orton, David Garrard and Aaron Brooks out of 31 quarterbacks taken in the 4th rd. Only one even made a Pro Bowl __Garrard, once.

IOW, there's about a 70 per cent chance Cousins will never even throw 5 TD passes in the NFL. So, where's this mysterious "four-year value?"


What if the Redskins had drafted for need and taken an offensive guard or tackle in the 4th round? Since ’91, 55 percent of all guards and tackles taken in the fourth round have become NFL starters __50 of 91. That’s f-i-f-t-y f-i-v-e percent. And many have been starters through long useful careers.

So, if you already relinquished three No. 1 picks and a second-round pick for RGIII, and you’re offensive line is weak, how stupid is it to draft a quarterback again in the 4th round? It shows such a stunning lack of basic understanding of the odds-of-success in the draft that you wonder where Draft Research stops and Egos On The Loose start in the Skins draft room.

Say it again: You have less than a 10 percent chance to get an Orton-Garrard, Brooks-level quarterback. But you have a 55 percent chance to draft on offensive lineman who will someday become one of your starters.

Here are the other quarterbacks who have been drafted in the 4th round, starting in ’91: Mike Kafka, Stephen McGee, Isiah Stanback, Brad Smith, Stefan Lefors, Luke McCown, Seneca Wallace, Rohan Davey, Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, Joe Germaine, Danny Wuerffel, Pat Barnes, Jeff Lewis, Danny Kanell, Ron Johnson, Chad May, Dave Barr, Steve Stenstrom, Perry Klein, Doug Nussmeier, Casey Weldon, Will Furrer, Chris Hakel, Scott Zolak, Donald Hollas and Bill Musgrave.

So why on earth would the Redskins think they could get a special QB in the 4th round? Back in the mists of time, when the NFL had less teams and a 4th round pick was more like a 2nd round pick is today, the 4th round actually did produce two QBs of note __and only two__ Joe Theismann in ’71 and Sonny Jurgensen in ’57.

Gosh, both Redskins, both still in the local spotlight and with access to the era of decision makers. That can’t be the reason. More likely, it’s a case of Draft Board Worship. (We spent a zillion hours creating it. We’ve evaluated Cousins as a steal. We’ll show ‘em how smart we are.)

When the Redskins do something which, on the surface, looks dumb but, on inspection, looks even dumber, it sometimes takes years to figure out why it happened. But the answer is usually pretty amusing.

This is the team that drafted three receivers in a row __when it had needs everywhere__ and ended up with two of them total busts. Hey, the Board, built entirely by geniuses, said to keep picking receivers. When they came out to announce the picks, Zorn's face looked like, "What have I gotten myself into?"

http://live.washingtonpost.com/ask-boswell-120430.html

[backwardsk]

So if they had chosen a guard as he suggests would he also advocate using a three guard lineup so they all could be considered starters?

Not surprised that the media is grasping at this story.

[TiredofLosing20]

So if they had chosen a guard as he suggests would he also advocate using a three guard lineup so they all could be considered starters?

Not surprised that the media is grasping at this story.

Utterly moronic is probably strong. Questionable and odd are probably fair game.

[backwardsk]

Utterly moronic is probably strong. Questionable and odd are probably fair game.

I agree with that statement. Questionable, odd, debatable, surprising are all on point. It's the overreaction from Boswell and others about one out of 9 picks which is mind numbing. There is a lot to digest and discuss about this draft, but I guess that since Shanahan is an "utterly moronic racist" all of the attention is focused on Griffin/Cousins which is unfair to both of them. It's also weak sauce, IMO, to relate this to a Vinny run draft.

[JDubs]

So if they had chosen a guard as he suggests would he also advocate using a three guard lineup so they all could be considered starters?

Not surprised that the media is grasping at this story.

Agreed. QB is the most important position in football...but it is "utterly moronic" to build depth at that position through the draft? Hey national media, Kolb, Schaub, and others say hello.

[hoosiers]

Utterly moronic is probably strong. Questionable and odd are probably fair game.

Boswell is so emphatic because the numbers "support" his case. IMO, this is similar to the HS pitching in the first round baseball discussion.

Boswell's claim ininuates that the quality of Cousins' career is primarily dependent on the round he was drafted - it's a fool's logic.

One can say that NFL teams have historically missed by a wide margin in believing their QBs drafted in the fourth round were NFL caliber, but those numbers may or may not hold true for the future. Would Cousins have a better career if he were drafted in the sixth round? It's a ridiculous discussion.

I am surprised a fourth round pick is getting this type of recognition and hints to me that Cousins was, in fact, good value in the fourth round.

[TiredofLosing20]

I agree with that statement. Questionable, odd, debatable, surprising are all on point. It's the overreaction from Boswell and others about one out of 9 picks which is mind numbing. There is a lot to digest and discuss about this draft, but I guess that since Shanahan is an "utterly moronic racist" all of the attention is focused on Griffin/Cousins which is unfair to both of them. It's also weak sauce, IMO, to relate this to a Vinny run draft.

I won't speak to the "racist" part of this because really that is a just ridiculous. Unfortunately, (or fortunately being and Eagles fan ), the Redskins have become like the Orioles. Any outside the mainstream move will be met with immediate disapproval from the big media folks. Tho, in fairness, like the Orioles they have earned that badge.

[JDubs]

I won't speak to the "racist" part of this because really that is a just ridiculous. Unfortunately, (or fortunately being and Eagles fan ), the Redskins have become like the Orioles. Any outside the mainstream move will be met with immediate disapproval from the big media folks. Tho, in fairness, like the Orioles they have earned that badge.

Yes, the media does like to question the moves that the Redskins make...mostly because of the questionable decision-making of the Cerrato FO. In this one way, and one way only...the Redskins are like the Orioles.

However, it is noteworthy that the media has largely been complimentary of the decision to go get RG3. Perhaps the media just likes to talk about the Redskins. Can't really blame them for that.

[TiredofLosing20]

Boswell is so emphatic because the numbers "support" his case. IMO, this is similar to the HS pitching in the first round baseball discussion.

Boswell's claim ininuates that the quality of Cousins' career is primarily dependent on the round he was drafted - it's a fool's logic.

One can say that NFL teams have historically missed by a wide margin in believing their QBs drafted in the fourth round were NFL caliber, but those numbers may or may not hold true for the future. Would Cousins have a better career if he were drafted in the sixth round? It's a ridiculous discussion.

I am surprised a fourth round pick is getting this type of recognition and hints to me that Cousins was, in fact, good value in the fourth round.

I agree with you that Boswell's logic is flawed by trying to state that Cousins ultimate success or failure most likely will be determined by the round he was drafted. I think he is really trying to make a simple argument here but to me gets lost a bit along the way.

I think a much more compelling argument to me is that Cousins ultimate success or failure will largely be driven by RGIII and that success or failure is somewhat inversely related. Being drafted in the same draft is the issue here. Cousins success can largely only come at RGIII's failure (whether it be injury or production). What is a better use of the 4th round resource for the Washington Redskins at this point in time? A hedge against RGIII failing or a potential piece toward helping RGIII be successful. Throw in the Boswell's stats (which I think are applicable for reasons other than he is trying to use them) and I think there is plenty of room for criticism.

[TiredofLosing20]

Yes, the media does like to question the moves that the Redskins make...mostly because of the questionable decision-making of the Cerrato FO. In this one way, and one way only...the Redskins are like the Orioles.

However, it is noteworthy that the media has largely been complimentary of the decision to go get RG3. Perhaps the media just likes to talk about the Redskins. Can't really blame them for that.

I have heard some criticism for what they gave up to get him. It was a pretty steep price, but if he matches the hype it will have been worth the price.

My guess is that the Redskins get talked about a lot because they do a lot of flashy things. I am thinking that has been part of their problem.

[hoosiers]

My guess is that the Redskins get talked about a lot because they do a lot of flashy things. I am thinking that has been part of their problem.

"Flashy things" that are successful are not criticized. The Skins have done many "flashy things" in the Snyder era that have failed - some spectacularly.

Separately, if others thought there were better uses for the fourth rounder, that's fair, but I think of last year when so many teams had one or two back-up QBs better than the Skins starter - Grossman. It was pathetic, IMO. The Skins have not developed a back-up QB into a starter in a long time - Frerotte - then Humphries and Schroeder before that. In the meantime, we see other teams develop a Kolb, Cassel, or find a Moore, etc. If our back-up QB issue is settled with a competent replacement for the next few years, I have no issue with this pick at all.