Adam Jones - For Real or Overrated?

**Rell** · 05-03-2012 11:23 PM

Is it just me, or is Adam Jones a guy we should look to deal? From a straight value standpoint, it seems like other teams really like him. As an Oriole fan, I see a guy that gives his all every night, but he still struggles with any sort of breaking ball, he strikes out too much, his OBP isn't great, and his RISP numbers are average at best. I base much of this on the fact that he is hitting in the middle of the lineup.

Even the announcers in the Yankee series were saying how much Joe Girardi likes him. The only thing I noticed was two important situations in a tight game last night with men on 3rd base and one out, and Jones could not drive them in. All I read is what a great offensive year he is having. He loves the solo shot, but he also loves swinging at a curve ball way out of the zone.

A lot of teams would love to have Adam Jones...we could get some quality players for him.

Do others feel the way I do about him or am I way off base here? He is a good fielder. Not a gold glove like he won a few years ago, but a strong CF.

**Lucky Jim** · 05-03-2012 11:27 PM

The answer is Yes.

**larrytt** · 05-03-2012 11:36 PM

Originally Posted by Rell

Is it just me, or is Adam Jones a guy we should look to deal? From a straight value standpoint, it seems like other teams really like him. As an Oriole fan, I see a guy that gives his all every night, but he still struggles with any sort of breaking ball, he strikes out too much, his OBP isn't great, and his RISP numbers are average at best.

Actually, his OBP is .362, which is very good. As to strikeouts, he's only struck out 14 times in 98 AB, 1 out of 7, which is the LOWEST strikeout rate among all the Orioles except for Paulino (3 SO in 25 AB). Hard to believe, isn't it? And if he's having trouble with breaking balls, then there must be a lot of pitchers who can't throw breaking stuff since (besides the few strikeouts) he's hitting .316 with a .582 SLG along with that .362 OBP for an OPS of .944, with 6 HR, a triple, and 6 DBL. We don't know if he'll keep this up all year, but if he's anywhere close he's worth a lot.

**Lucky Jim** · 05-03-2012 11:39 PM

Originally Posted by larrytt

Actually, his OBP is .362, which is very good. As to strikeouts, he's only struck out 14 times in 98 AB, 1 out of 7, which is the LOWEST strikeout rate among all the Orioles except for Paulino (3 SO in 25 AB). Hard to believe, isn't it? And if he's having trouble with breaking balls, then there must be a lot of pitchers who can't throw breaking stuff since (besides the few strikeouts) he's hitting .316 with a .582 SLG along with that .362 OBP for an OPS of .944, with 6 HR, a triple, and 6 DBL. We don't know if he'll keep this up all year, but if he's anywhere close he's worth a lot.

Inflated by batting average, but walking a bit more (still like better than a 3.8% BB rate) than early on - add to that the fact that (though a small sample), defensive metrics are improved. He's on pace for about a 7 WAR year - I'd take anything in the 4-5 range.

**Toonces** · 05-03-2012 11:39 PM

If a gun was put to my head...I would admit that unless Mr. Jones agrees to a multi year deal this year, he's gone.
I don't blame the young man one bit. He needs to do what he needs to do.
I just hope no matter what the outcome, the O's have more talent after then before.

**Lucky Jim** · 05-03-2012 11:40 PM

Originally Posted by Toonces

If a gun was put to my head...I would admit that unless Mr. Jones agrees to a multi year deal this year, he's gone.
I don't blame the young man one bit. He needs to do what he needs to do.
I just hope no matter what the outcome, the O's have more talent after then before.

How do we have more talent if we sign him to an extension?

**wildcard** · 05-03-2012 11:43 PM

Its depends on whether Adam keeps hitting. If he does then I think the O's will offer him an extension in July. His OBP right now is 362. That is pretty darn good. He currently has raised his level of offense over previous years. He is the kind of guy that is a threat to drive in 4 runs in any given game. I believe it is up to Adam to prove he can sustain this new level of offense into July to get the contract he wants.

**crissfan172** · 05-03-2012 11:45 PM

Originally Posted by Lucky Jim

Inflated by batting average, but walking a bit more (still like better than a 3.8% BB rate) than early on - add to that the fact that (though a small sample), defensive metrics are improved. He's on pace for about a 7 WAR year - I'd take anything in the 4-5 range.

Honestly...I could see the BA being up this year with the BB rate staying about the same and the K rate decreasing. Pitchers aren't going to want to walk him with Wieters on deck, so he should get better pitches to hit. I know that the idea of protection has been questioned a lot in the last couple of years, but I see a legitimate reason to believe that Jones will benefit from having Wieters behind him.

That being said, the reason he isn't striking out as much this year is because he's not swinging at pitcher's pitches early in the count as often as he used to.

**Toonces** · 05-03-2012 11:58 PM

Originally Posted by Lucky Jim

How do we have more talent if we sign him to an extension?

He's better after the extension then before...

That logically makes sense right....right?
Plus, when I talked to Matt the other night, he made me aware that Adam was going to be more talented. Who am I to challenge him?
I love being able to pull the Matt card whenever anyone asks for proof concerning a player. Um...Matt said so. "Oh, understooSd, deal."

And yeah, I made all this up just because I don't like to admit I'm wrong. So I'm not wrong right?! If you think I'm wrong, you are anti-Matt. You don't want to be anti-Matt do you? So just admit I'm right. Thanks!

**El Gordo** · 05-04-2012 12:22 AM

Jones is an average range CF with one of the best OF arms in the game. He will hit for power, decent average, and league average OBP. Buck described his major challenge as not having emotional AB. As he matures that will happen to some extent. I'd say he is the real deal. But we should trade him at the deadline.

**scOtt** · 05-04-2012 12:27 AM

I say we keep him. Lock him up for a few years. Make him an Oriole. He sounded plenty open to the idea at Fanfest this year. The clip I saw. He said something like the west coast is my home, but now Baltimore is becoming my home too.

Like Gordo says, he is the real deal. He and Wieters are who we should build around. And the pitching.

**El Gordo** · 05-04-2012 12:35 AM

Which is the better team, one with Bourjos in CF and Callaspo at 3B, or Jones in CF and Reynolds/Betemit at 3B? Pretty sure we could get more than those two for AJ.

**Lucky Jim** · 05-04-2012 12:49 AM

Originally Posted by El Gordo

Which is the better team, one with Bourjos in CF and Callaspo at 3B, or Jones in CF and Reynolds/Betemit at 3B? Pretty sure we could get more than those two for AJ.

Jones at CF and someone who's not Reynolds or Betemit at 3rd.

**rmt64** · 05-04-2012 12:50 AM

Well, I really doubt Reynolds doesn't hit less than 20 HRs this year and "turns it around" to some extent. He still draws walks because of what he's capable of on the rare occasion that he makes contact.

I understand the point you're trying to make, but I'll still take Jones/Reynolds.

**El Gordo** · 05-04-2012 12:59 AM

Originally Posted by Lucky Jim

Jones at CF and someone who's not Reynolds or Betemit at 3rd.

So your in favor of extending Jones? How much? I'd give him 6/75M. Think he'd sign for that?

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