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07-05-2012 09:32 AM #1
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HHP: How can Adam Jones be on pace for 40 homers but only 88 RBI?
The answer is simple -- nobody's getting on base in front of him. An average player with 341 PA (Jones' total going into yesterday's play) would have 204 runners on base (including 67 on 2B and 35 on 3B), while Jones has had only 175 runners on base (including 50 on 2B and 28 on 3B). That's particularly weak when you realize that the "average" player identified above could be batting anywhere in the order, whereas Jones has been batting cleanup almost all season. The O's have a .247 OBP in the leadoff spot, .268 in the two-hole, and .289 in the three-hole (.333 for Nick Markakis and .215 for his replacements). That is disgraceful!
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07-05-2012 09:34 AM #2
Same reason how Chris Hoiles hit 20 homers but only knocked in 40. One of my more favorite statistical oddities.
EDIT: .247 in the leadoff spot is absolutely disgraceful.
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07-05-2012 09:42 AM #3
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Seems pretty self explanitory no? You can't drive in runs if no ones on base.
Just a random hypothetical, I wonder A. Where he'd hit in the order in Boston or NY and B. What type of numbers he'd put up?
My guess is 2 or 3 hole hitter and a crazy amount of runs scored. Anyone else have any guesses?
Or does it just make you sick to your stomach do even think about? Ha
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07-05-2012 09:44 AM #4
Because our 1-2 hitters don't get on base.
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07-05-2012 09:44 AM #5
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07-05-2012 09:53 AM #6
I'd be interested to know how many of our 1st innings since Markakis went out have been 1-2-3 innings. And how that compares to league average.
Not sure there's any easy way to look that up, but I feel like virtually every game starts with a clean first inning for the other team.
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07-05-2012 10:00 AM #7
A rather hilarious stat. OBP by lineup position:
1) .247
2) .268
3) .289
4) .368
5) .295
6) .367
7) .329
8) .290
9) .300
1-2 have been, far and away, our worse OBP positions. That is the exact opposite of what you want.
Markakis back will help. But with the current lineups Buck is trotting out, he really needs to move Hardy down to 6 or lower and put Betemit or Thome at the 2 slot.
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07-05-2012 10:03 AM #8
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A team knocking the ball around as much as we do should be one of the top offensive teams. Our problem is that we don't work the count or get on base. We need to capitalize on those home runs, and we need to knock starters out of games. Until we do that, we're just going to continue to hope to get lucky and hang out until the 8th-9th innings.
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07-05-2012 10:04 AM #9
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07-05-2012 10:30 AM #10
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There is a perception that the O's aren't a patient team, but it's not really as true as people think. The O's swing at 45.1% of the pitches they see, which ranks them as the 11th most patient team in MLB (6th in the AL). They could do better in that regard (they swing at 31% of pitches outside fo the strike zone, which is 10th highest), but they're not awful. It's not totally clear to me why they don't walk more, considering that their swing rate is not that bad.
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07-05-2012 11:00 AM #11
I think this needs to be emphasized. Buck has not put the best lineups out there by forcing guys to the top of his lineup that just don't get on base. Betemit would be a much better option as the number two hitter than Hardy, especially against right-handers. I just don't get Buck's decision to keep low OBP guys in those top two positions of the lineup.
Honestly, it sounds weird, but I'd bat Reynolds second against left-handers and Betemit second against right-handers. Avery would be my current leadoff guy.
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07-05-2012 11:08 AM #12
He lacks clutchness, which we can only hope will improve as he accumulates veteranosity.
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07-05-2012 11:29 AM #13
We need Brad Pitt.
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07-05-2012 11:35 AM #14
Jones should be batting 3rd. As the cleanup hitter, he's leaidng off an inning more often than not because our top three hitters have been so flat recently. If he was batting 3rd, he might have more of a chance to knock in more runners.
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07-05-2012 11:35 AM #15
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