BABIP and bad luck (or good defense)

[Hallas]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...sh-new-xbabip/

Note the positions of Adam Jones and JJ Hardy. While they aren't the most unlucky players in the league, they are notably unlucky, with their fielding-independent wOBA being nearly .040 higher than their actual wOBA.

With JJ I think it's a snowball effect of him hitting hard outs, and pressing because he can't buy a base hit and as a result swinging at pitches he shouldn't.

With AJ... I don't know. He has slumped but it isn't nearly as pronounced.

[CA-ORIOLE]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...sh-new-xbabip/

Note the positions of Adam Jones and JJ Hardy. While they aren't the most unlucky players in the league, they are notably unlucky, with their fielding-independent wOBA being nearly .040 higher than their actual wOBA.

With JJ I think it's a snowball effect of him hitting hard outs, and pressing because he can't buy a base hit and as a result swinging at pitches he shouldn't.

With AJ... I don't know. He has slumped but it isn't nearly as pronounced.

Interesting stat. Looks like it mght be weighted a bit by the poor parks/park factors. Certainly a lot of Mariners on there. The batted ball types don't seem to be out of line for either (Hardy or Jones). I think Hardy may be a victim of the overshifts we're seeing this year. Harder to tell with Jones.

[Frobby]

I am not prepared to accept that all differences between batting average, BABIP, xBABIP etc. are a product of nothing but luck. I do think it is likely that bad luck has been something of a factor for both Hardy and Jones, however.

[Spencer423]

Remember that Mike Trout catch, that wasn't even the only time he got robbed that night. Other than the pop ups and the GIDP, it seems like Hardy has been getting robbed all year.

[socalbirdfan]

Remember that Mike Trout catch, that wasn't even the only time he got robbed that night. Other than the pop ups and the GIDP, it seems like Hardy has been getting robbed all year.

Other than pops and GIDP??? You aren't leaving much room for any other kind of outs. He's GIDP quite often this year and he rarely talks a walk. I like his power, but he needs to be moved out of the #2 hole.

[Spencer423]

Other than pops and GIDP??? You aren't leaving much room for any other kind of outs. He's GIDP quite often this year and he rarely talks a walk. I like his power, but he needs to be moved out of the #2 hole.

Yea, I know those two things make up a significant amount of his at bats, but there's still plenty of room for him to get robbed. And I concur with the moving him out of the #2 sentiment.

[Hallas]

I am not prepared to accept that all differences between batting average, BABIP, xBABIP etc. are a product of nothing but luck. I do think it is likely that bad luck has been something of a factor for both Hardy and Jones, however.

Well, what would you think is responsible if not luck? Do you think that there are differences in different line drives or flyballs that aren't captured by xBABIP? Because I don't think it's JJ's or Adam's fault that their BABIP on line drives is so much lower than average. And I would imagine that most players with a better xBABIP relative to BABIP have the same issue.

[Frobby]

Well, what would you think is responsible if not luck? Do you think that there are differences in different line drives or flyballs that aren't captured by xBABIP? Because I don't think it's JJ's or Adam's fault that their BABIP on line drives is so much lower than average. And I would imagine that most players with a better xBABIP relative to BABIP have the same issue.

I think there is some subjectivity to what is a fly ball and what is a line drive, and then there is the missing variable of how hard the ball was hit. Not all line drives are created equal. I think when hit f/x becomes available, you will see some refinement in the way a stat like xBABIP is calculated.