Steve Slowinski's take on Jake

[Frobby]

Steve Slowinski blogs on the Tampa Bay Rays and contributes to fangraphs. He wrote a long article on Jake Arrieta today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...2-orioles-fip/

Excerpts:

The more that Arrieta continues to struggle, the more I feel like his problem is similar to what plagued [James] Shields two years ago: inconsistency with pitch location. As much as we like to imagine that BABIP fluctuations have little to do with skill, that's not entirely true. If you leave pitches over the plate too often, you?re going to get hit - no matter how good your stuff is. Shields dominated lineups back in 2010, but then he fell apart by allowing hard-hit balls off pitches that he left over the plate. Arrieta has gone through periods of dominance, as well. But as you can tell from the above chart, he's also let some of his pitches - especially his slider and two-seamer - catch far too much of the plate. For that, he's paid the price. His pitch accuracy may have improved, but his precision still needs work.

* * *

Arrieta might want to start by scrapping his slider - or at least throwing it considerably less often - as he already has two above average off-speed pitches whith his curveball and his change up. His slider has been the one pitch that's gotten hit the hardest this season, and his cutter has had similar success without being nearly as home-run prone. And if he can then keep improving his command and become more consistent with his fastball location, there?s not much holding him back from success.

Listen to me go: if, if, if, if, if. Considering that the Orioles demoted Arrieta to Triple-A before the All-Star Break, it's possible that I?m more than slightly delusional at this point. Maybe my fandom is blinding me, but I do think Arrieta isn't far away from breaking out in a big way. With a few tweaks and a bit more consistency, he could still become an anchor for the O's pitching staff in the years to come.

[cmurter]

I was about to make my thread-making debut with this article, but alas Frobby beat me to it...

Interesting James Shields comparison, however

[jabba72]

Dont have my hopes very high Arrieta will ever be consistent year to year, or start to start for that matter. He seems to have great stuff but cant locate it unless he serves up fat pitches, like the above mentioned because thats the only way he can get it over the plate for strikes.

[bd]

Remind me to read more of this Steve Slowinski. He and I can really relate.

[socalbirdfan]

As someone who had listed Jake as Oriole starter with the most upside at the start of the season I'm not convinced. I still see the great stuff and maybe he gets better if he ditches the slider but it's still about command. For as much bashing as there's been on here about Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta have had far more chances to prove themselves with less to show for it at this point.

I seriously hope his issues get solved with with analysis, but Matusz has bigger mechanical issues that can be rectified through what Peterson has to offer. That makes Jake's woes all the more frustrating. His delivery doesn't look that bad to me, so I don't know where you go from there. Perhaps it's a minor simplification as was done with Tillman.

What remains to be seen is if Jake figures that out as an Oriole or with another team.

[NickM21]

I have always believed Jake will be the best of the Arrieta-Matusz-Tillman trio coming up. I would be incredibly surprised and dissapointed if he never figured it out. He's too good not to. I agree that if uses his slider less and attacks hitter with his fastball earlier in the count that will really make a difference.

[Roy Firestone]

Dont have my hopes very high Arrieta will ever be consistent year to year, or start to start for that matter. He seems to have great stuff but cant locate it unless he serves up fat pitches, like the above mentioned because thats the only way he can get it over the plate for strikes.

EVER? Really EVER? Thats an awful long time.

[Can_of_corn]

EVER? Really EVER? Thats an awful long time.

I have faith that Jake will have impeccable command when he is pitching at the O's fantasy camp in 2032.


I do think ditching the slider for now would be a good choice. Might help him focus on the other pitches.

[Say O!]

I don't know if it is a matter of "bad luck" when runners are on-base, but Jake's OPS against is .860 in those situations, which is well above his career average.

While down in AAA, why not have him pitch exclusively from the stretch? Maybe then can iron out any issues with pitch location, etc., that have plagued him this season.

[bd]

I don't know if it is a matter of "bad luck" when runners are on-base, but Jake's OPS against is .860 in those situations, which is well above his career average.

While down in AAA, why not have him pitch exclusively from the stretch? Maybe then can iron out any issues with pitch location, etc., that have plagued him this season.

I'm really convinced the stretch is not the issue. This is one of those factors that's been overhyped on here. As the writer of the article guesses, it's a more fundamental problem than that: overall command and pitch sequencing. There's a lot of things that fall under that, and really bad numbers out of the stretch is one of the things that can eventuate from having bad command and pitch sequencing (it makes sense that Jake would have bad #s with runners on base because when he loses his command he tends to lose it for good, or for a number of batters. So there's a good bet by the time runners are on he's already grasping desperately for his command, and the kind of feedback loop is already in effect), but I really think it's a misnomer to blame Jake's struggles on simply "the stretch." His problems are much more fundamental/essential than that.

Peterson needs to do with Jake what he did with Tillman: a major revamp.

Also, I'm by no means an expert, but the writer says that Jake's changeup is plus. This seems a bit kind on Jake--seems to me it grades out more as average, especially considering he really struggles to locate it. Thoughts on this?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm really convinced the stretch is not the issue. This is one of those factors that's been overhyped on here. As the writer of the article guesses, it's a more fundamental problem than that: overall command and pitch sequencing. There's a lot of things that fall under that, and really bad numbers out of the stretch is one of the things that can eventuate from having bad command and pitch sequencing (it makes sense that Jake would have bad #s with runners on base because when he loses his command he tends to lose it for good, or for a number of batters. So there's a good bet by the time runners are on he's already grasping desperately for his command, and the kind of feedback loop is already in effect), but I really think it's a misnomer to blame Jake's struggles on simply "the stretch." His problems are much more fundamental/essential than that.

Peterson needs to do with Jake what he did with Tillman: a major revamp.

Also, I'm by no means an expert, but the writer says that Jake's changeup is plus. This seems a bit kind on Jake--seems to me it grades out more as average, especially considering he really struggles to locate it. Thoughts on this?

Yeah, I agree with all of this and most of the OP. Basically what I've said in the past, even the pitch sequencing part. While I'm not a big pitch sequencing guy (especially as far as pitches being called by the catcher being important) it's a big thing when you're consistently behind like Jake and the hitter knows what's coming on those hitters counts. Then add in the inconsistent mechanics and flatties.

I don't buy the stretch thing either. I also agree with you about the changeup. I don't see a plus pitch there.

[weams]

I believe if Jake Arrieta throws fewer types of pitches he would be better.

[LookitsPuck]

So, concentrate more on his four seamer, two seamer, curve, and change up and forget his cutter and slider. Not bad. I like it. Simplify.

[Pickles]

I'm really convinced the stretch is not the issue. This is one of those factors that's been overhyped on here. As the writer of the article guesses, it's a more fundamental problem than that: overall command and pitch sequencing. There's a lot of things that fall under that, and really bad numbers out of the stretch is one of the things that can eventuate from having bad command and pitch sequencing (it makes sense that Jake would have bad #s with runners on base because when he loses his command he tends to lose it for good, or for a number of batters. So there's a good bet by the time runners are on he's already grasping desperately for his command, and the kind of feedback loop is already in effect), but I really think it's a misnomer to blame Jake's struggles on simply "the stretch." His problems are much more fundamental/essential than that.

Peterson needs to do with Jake what he did with Tillman: a major revamp.

Also, I'm by no means an expert, but the writer says that Jake's changeup is plus. This seems a bit kind on Jake--seems to me it grades out more as average, especially considering he really struggles to locate it. Thoughts on this?

Anybody who thinks Arrieta has a plus change hasn't watched him pitch much, or doesn't know what a plus change looks like.

I think it's kind to call it average, frankly. It's a show me pitch that he can't even pretend to command.

[Orioles4Life21]

Remind me to read more of this Steve Slowinski. He and I can really relate.

Read more of Steve Slowinski.