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  1. #1
    luismatos4prez's Avatar
    luismatos4prez is offline Plus Member Since 10/12 All-Star Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Bill James' 2013 Projections

    I'll format this so it's easy to see what he's saying about each guy.

    Player 2012 Slash Line OBP/SLG/OPS 2013 BJ Slash Line OBP/SLG/OPS
    Adam Jones .334/.505/.839 .329/.478/.807
    Matt Wieters .329/.435/.764 .341/.448/.789
    JJ Hardy .282/.389/.671 .306/.422/.728
    Chris Davis .326/.501/.827 .340/.532/.872
    Nick Markakis .363/.471/.834 .369/.457/.826
    Manny Machado .294/.445/.739 .315/.419/.734
    Nolan Reimold .333/.627/.960 .340/.456/.796
    Mark Reynolds .335/.429/.763 .336/.463/.799
    Ryan Flaherty .258/.359/.617 .300.415/.715
    Nate McLouth ..342/.435/.777 .326/.400/.726

    Notes:
    - Slash Line is OBP/SLG/OPS
    - Reimold's projection is right in line with his total career numbers
    - I only included McLouth's Orioles numbers
    - BRob not included. Bill James always predicts him to have a big comeback year. It's a flaw in his system, imo

    I find these projections very reasonable. I like what it does with Machado, Flaherty, McLouth, and Reimold. Tough guys to predict. He has AJ regressing, which I strongly disagree with, because nothing he did last season was unsustainable.

    Pitcher 2012 ERA 2013 BJ ERA
    Jason Hammel 3.43 4.30
    Wei-Yin Chen 4.02 3.92
    Jake Arrieta (RP) 6.20 4.25
    Jim Johnson 2.49 3.34
    Darren O'Day 2.28 2.71
    Chris Tillman 2.93 4.31
    Miguel Gonzalez 3.25 3.67
    Pedro Strop 2.44 3.63
    Luis Ayals 2.64 3.95
    Zach Britton 5.07 4.08
    Tommy Hunter (RP) 5.45 4.50
    Brian Matusz (mostly RP) 4.87 4.70

    He's pessimistic about Hammel, JJ, Strop, and Ayala. With good reason I think.

    I disagree with his projections on Hunter and Matusz. I think those two will excel in the pen, and I'm more optimistic about Tillman than he is.

    I'm surprised to see how optimistic he is on Gonzo. He loves O'Day, and he thinks Britton will improve.

    My conclusions: We would be wise to sell high on Hammel, and perhaps Strop and JJ as well.
    Last edited by luismatos4prez; 11-14-2012 at 07:51 PM.


  2. #2
    El Gordo's Avatar
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    I sure hope his offensive predictions are accurate with the exception of Manny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by El Gordo View Post
    I sure hope his offensive predictions are accurate with the exception of Manny.
    Seem pretty darn optimistic to me, especially with Davis.

  4. #4
    RZNJ's Avatar
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    He's certainly very bullish on Chris Davis. I wonder what the reasoning is or the statistical reason.

  5. #5
    luismatos4prez's Avatar
    luismatos4prez is offline Plus Member Since 10/12 All-Star Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by TradeAngelos View Post
    Seem pretty darn optimistic to me, especially with Davis.
    Fwiw, James was dead on about Chris Davis in his projections last year. His projection system had him as 316/.500 in a part time role, but he also went on the record as saying that Chris Davis could be a 30 HR hitter if given a full-time role. Those were both very bold predictions at the time.

    I'm sure we'll see people coming out of the woodwork as saying "I knew it all along", but Davis was a huge question mark coming into this year, and Bill James was very accurate with him.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by RZNJ View Post
    He's certainly very bullish on Chris Davis. I wonder what the reasoning is or the statistical reason.
    I can't see any statistical evidence to back it up, just the "light switch" theory.

    Not saying it couldn't happen, but I would bet that an .872 OPS is very unlikely.

    Wouldn't be complaining if it happened though, that is for sure.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by luismatos4prez View Post
    Fwiw, James was dead on about Chris Davis in his projections last year. His projection system had him as 316/.500 in a part time role, but he also went on the record as saying that Chris Davis could be a 30 HR hitter if given a full-time role. Those were both very bold predictions at the time.

    I'm sure we'll see people coming out of the woodwork as saying "I knew it all along", but Davis was a huge question mark coming into this year, and Bill James was very accurate with him.
    Good info, I will give you that.

    I just need way more of a track record to predict he turns into an offensive force like that, almost overnight.

  8. #8
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    I have been tracking all the various projections done by different prognosticators for several years now. Bill James is almost always higher than systems like PECOTA and ZiPS when it comes to offensive projections.

  9. #9
    RZNJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    I have been tracking all the various projections done by different prognosticators for several years now. Bill James is almost always higher than systems like PECOTA and ZiPS when it comes to offensive projections.
    Yeah, the scary thing is that Frobby's projections are usually just as good as these systems.

  10. #10
    CA-ORIOLE is online now Plus Members Since 9/11 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by RZNJ View Post
    He's certainly very bullish on Chris Davis. I wonder what the reasoning is or the statistical reason.
    Not sure either. I'm guessing they weight second half performance more heavily in their formula.

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    I'll go ahead and bet half my life savings on the under for Chris Davis.

  12. #12
    skanar is offline Plus Member Since 10/12 Major League Starter Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Gordo View Post
    I sure hope his offensive predictions are accurate with the exception of Manny.
    I'd be thrilled with a .734 OPS from our 20-year-old defensive whiz third baseman.

  13. #13
    wildcard is online now Plus Member since 11/03 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation
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    Adam Jones will be 27 next year which should be his peak year according to statistical averages. Yet James has him declining. Based of what? I can't agree.

  14. #14
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by wildcard View Post
    Adam Jones will be 27 next year which should be his peak year according to statistical averages. Yet James has him declining. Based of what? I can't agree.
    Almost any algorhythmic system is going to have him above 2011 and below 2012.

  15. #15
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by wildcard View Post
    Adam Jones will be 27 next year which should be his peak year according to statistical averages. Yet James has him declining. Based of what? I can't agree.
    Almost any algorhythmic system is going to have him above 2011 and below 2012.

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