Jump to content

Bill James' 2013 Projections


luismatos4prez

Recommended Posts

I'll format this so it's easy to see what he's saying about each guy.

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Player[/td]

[td]2012 Slash Line OBP/SLG/OPS[/td]

[td]2013 BJ Slash Line OBP/SLG/OPS[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Adam Jones[/td]

[td].334/.505/.839[/td]

[td].329/.478/.807[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Matt Wieters[/td]

[td].329/.435/.764[/td]

[td].341/.448/.789[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]JJ Hardy[/td]

[td].282/.389/.671[/td]

[td].306/.422/.728[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Chris Davis[/td]

[td].326/.501/.827[/td]

[td].340/.532/.872[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nick Markakis[/td]

[td].363/.471/.834[/td]

[td].369/.457/.826[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Manny Machado[/td]

[td].294/.445/.739[/td]

[td].315/.419/.734[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nolan Reimold[/td]

[td].333/.627/.960[/td]

[td].340/.456/.796[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Mark Reynolds[/td]

[td].335/.429/.763[/td]

[td].336/.463/.799[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Ryan Flaherty[/td]

[td].258/.359/.617[/td]

[td].300.415/.715[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Nate McLouth[/td]

[td]..342/.435/.777[/td]

[td].326/.400/.726[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

Notes:

- Slash Line is OBP/SLG/OPS

- Reimold's projection is right in line with his total career numbers

- I only included McLouth's Orioles numbers

- BRob not included. Bill James always predicts him to have a big comeback year. It's a flaw in his system, imo

I find these projections very reasonable. I like what it does with Machado, Flaherty, McLouth, and Reimold. Tough guys to predict. He has AJ regressing, which I strongly disagree with, because nothing he did last season was unsustainable.

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]Pitcher[/td]

[td]2012 ERA[/td]

[td]2013 BJ ERA[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jason Hammel[/td]

[td]3.43[/td]

[td]4.30[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Wei-Yin Chen[/td]

[td]4.02[/td]

[td]3.92[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jake Arrieta (RP)[/td]

[td]6.20[/td]

[td]4.25[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Jim Johnson[/td]

[td]2.49[/td]

[td]3.34[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Darren O'Day[/td]

[td]2.28[/td]

[td]2.71[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Chris Tillman[/td]

[td]2.93[/td]

[td]4.31[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Miguel Gonzalez[/td]

[td]3.25[/td]

[td]3.67[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Pedro Strop[/td]

[td]2.44[/td]

[td]3.63[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Luis Ayals[/td]

[td]2.64[/td]

[td]3.95[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Zach Britton[/td]

[td]5.07[/td]

[td]4.08[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Tommy Hunter (RP)[/td]

[td]5.45[/td]

[td]4.50[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Brian Matusz (mostly RP)[/td]

[td]4.87[/td]

[td]4.70[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

He's pessimistic about Hammel, JJ, Strop, and Ayala. With good reason I think.

I disagree with his projections on Hunter and Matusz. I think those two will excel in the pen, and I'm more optimistic about Tillman than he is.

I'm surprised to see how optimistic he is on Gonzo. He loves O'Day, and he thinks Britton will improve.

My conclusions: We would be wise to sell high on Hammel, and perhaps Strop and JJ as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 134
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Seem pretty darn optimistic to me, especially with Davis.

Fwiw, James was dead on about Chris Davis in his projections last year. His projection system had him as 316/.500 in a part time role, but he also went on the record as saying that Chris Davis could be a 30 HR hitter if given a full-time role. Those were both very bold predictions at the time.

I'm sure we'll see people coming out of the woodwork as saying "I knew it all along", but Davis was a huge question mark coming into this year, and Bill James was very accurate with him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's certainly very bullish on Chris Davis. I wonder what the reasoning is or the statistical reason.

I can't see any statistical evidence to back it up, just the "light switch" theory.

Not saying it couldn't happen, but I would bet that an .872 OPS is very unlikely.

Wouldn't be complaining if it happened though, that is for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fwiw, James was dead on about Chris Davis in his projections last year. His projection system had him as 316/.500 in a part time role, but he also went on the record as saying that Chris Davis could be a 30 HR hitter if given a full-time role. Those were both very bold predictions at the time.

I'm sure we'll see people coming out of the woodwork as saying "I knew it all along", but Davis was a huge question mark coming into this year, and Bill James was very accurate with him.

Good info, I will give you that.

I just need way more of a track record to predict he turns into an offensive force like that, almost overnight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • I remember him from his time with the Braves when I was in Atlanta. This is from the 'Rick Camp Game' in 85.  
    • I don’t think his lack of command in the early going is going to be fixed by changing roles.  Irvin typically has very good command.  He didn’t at the beginning of last year, but recovered it after a stint in the minors.  This year he’s having early problems again, but I think the reasons may be different.  He’s gained velocity and he’s added a new pitch that moves well but he hadn’t quite figured out how to command.  So, I don’t know if he’ll figure it out or not.  If he does, he could emerge a better pitcher than at any previous time in his career. In any event, he will get at least two more starts before Means is ready to return.   Hopefully he’ll make some progress, but he’s likely to find himself in the bullpen when Means returns regardless.       
    • Irvin is probably the most frustrating pitcher on this team right now. He has good velocity and good movement, but consistently misses his targets by a foot or two. Monday night the Twins hit a number of missiles that by luck or pluck didn't fall in, but a better team would have probably put up a touchdown against him. I think Irvin would have more success out of the pen, throwing as hard as he can for 20 pitches, rather than as a starter where he has to hold back a little so as to eat innings. Of course that's not going to resolve his problems with lack of command, but at least he'd be in a position to do less damage out of the BP than by starting every fifth day. 
    • As some people have noted on the Holliday thread, a quick release can help make up for less than a rocket arm and he's quick and has good hands.  Seems to work well with Gunnar too.
    • He’s been murdering a lot of balls.  99th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th in hard hit rate.  He’s been a little unlucky, with a .331 xOBA, .361 xwOBA going into last night.  
    • It's only somewhat relevant to this post, but that game saving catch in Seattle, and the subsequent game winning home run is quite possibly the most impressive thing I ever saw within one inning of  each other.Cedric Mullins did that. I watched Willie Mays for most of my life...I simply dont think he ever did that...certainly not in extra innings and so close those moments were together.
    • Where did you find that info?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...