What does Wieters project to get in arbitration if he doesn't sign extension?

[TradeAngelos]

Let's say he doesn't sign an extension and just rides out his arbitration years in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Assuming he progresses a little bit more at the plate and then stays there what would he project to earn in those 3 years?

[luismatos4prez]

Tim Dierkes has a projection model HERE

He projects Wieters at $4.6M next year. If he doesn't improve, I'd say 6.5 and 8.5 would be my rough projections for the next two years.

[TradeAngelos]

Tim Dierkes has a projection model HERE

He projects Wieters at $4.6M next year.

Ok then what about 2014 and 2015? Are there mandatory increases or how does that work as you get deeper into his arb years?

Again, assume he progresses a little bit more at the plate and then levels off. Let's say he gets to a solid .800 and defense stays the same.

[Frobby]

Rough estimate:

2013: $3.5 - $5 mm
2014: $6.0 - $7.5 mm
2015: $8.0 - $12.5 mm

That assumes he stays a sub-.800 OPS guy.

[wildcard]

My guess is 4-5M this year, 9-10M next year, 15M in 2015. Because of the way he runs the pitching staff he is worth much more than Jones if he hits free agency. I 'd say probably at least 20M from the Yankees, Dodgers and anyone else that wants to go there in FA.

[Frobby]

My guess is 4-5M this year, 9-10M next year, 15M in 2015. Because of the way he runs the pitching staff he is worth much more than Jones if he hits free agency. I 'd say probably at least 20M from the Yankees, Dodgers and anyone else that wants to go there in FA.

Not unless he steps it up with the bat.

[mcinww0]

My guess is 4-5M this year, 9-10M next year, 15M in 2015. Because of the way he runs the pitching staff he is worth much more than Jones if he hits free agency. I 'd say probably at least 20M from the Yankees, Dodgers and anyone else that wants to go there in FA.

I'm not so sure about that. Teams don't dole out 9 figure contracts to guys who call a great game behind the plate and control the running game. If the stick comes around, sure he'd be worth $20 mil but his OPS would have to jump at least 100 points to get him up to that level.

[Frobby]

It's interesting -- there really isn't a good comp for Wieters. You've got catchers who were really good defenders but who couldn't hit at all. You've got catchers who were really good hitters right away but mediocre with the glove. Finding a young guy who was Gold Glove caliber and a decent but not great hitter to compare to Wieters in order to estimate his arbitration value isn't easy. Wieters is pretty unique.

[wildcard]

Brian McCann will be a decent comp when he hits the market next year. The big difference is that Wieters is represented by Boras and McCann is not.

[Frobby]

Brian McCann will be a decent comp when he hits the market next year. The big difference is that Wieters is represented by Boras and McCann is not.

I don't see McCann and Wieters as similar players at all. McCann has an .826 career OPS. Defensively, he's slightly better than average, but not in Wieters' league. They might be comparable in overall value, but they aren't similar as players.

Anyway, the current exercise is what is Wieters worth the next three years in arbitration. McCann got $3.7 mm, $5.7 mm, $6.7 mm those three years -- extremely team-friendly IMO. Victor Martinez got $3.2 mm, $4.45 mm, $5.9 mm, also very team friendly. Mauer got $3.75mm, $6.25 mm, $10.5 mm. Wieters is not nearly as valuable as Mauer was at that point, but I think he will earn close to that the next three years for two reasons: (1) the extra revenue the teams are getting will lead to general inflation in player salaries in the next three years, and (2) Boras will be aggressive and probably succeed in persuading the Orioles that Wieters is at least as valuable as Jones ($3.25mm, $6.15mm, $8.5 mm) or Markakis ($3.35 mm, $7.1 mm, $10.6 mm) -- and he'll be right about that.