BRob beyond 2013

[Frobby]

I realize that this thread is premature and speculative. But let's say that BRob is able to play for most of all of 2013, and does a passable job. For sake of argument, let's say that he puts up a line of .270/.335/.365 with 15 stolen bases, and plays steadily in the field though with somewhat limited range. I'm just guessing, but that's probably a 1.0 WAR season, maybe slightly better.

My question is, would you want him back for 2014 at a reduced salary? Or is 2013 the end of the road for Roberts in an Orioles uniform almost regardless of what he does in 2013?

(No need to discuss in this thread your opinions about the low probability of the scenario I've described. Just assume it occurs, then what?)

[luismatos4prez]

I realize that this thread is premature and speculative. But let's say that BRob is able to play for most of all of 2013, and does a passable job. For sake of argument, let's say that he puts up a line of .270/.335/.365 with 15 stolen bases, and plays steadily in the field though with somewhat limited range. I'm just guessing, but that's probably a 1.0 WAR season, maybe slightly better.

My question is, would you want him back for 2014 at a reduced salary? Or is 2013 the end of the road for Roberts in an Orioles uniform almost regardless of what he does in 2013?

(No need to discuss in this thread your opinions about the low probability of the scenario I've described. Just assume it occurs, then what?)

It's the end of the road, even with that season. Some combination of Flaherty, Schoop, Machado, and Hardy should be the 2B/3B/SS next year, plus whomever else DD scrounges up.

I wouldn't say regardless of what he does next year, but you listed a very optimistic scenario, and I still wouldn't want him back.

[olddogger]

Then I move him before the trade deadline. Get some value (however small) back.

[weams]

I realize that this thread is premature and speculative. But let's say that BRob is able to play for most of all of 2013, and does a passable job. For sake of argument, let's say that he puts up a line of .270/.335/.365 with 15 stolen bases, and plays steadily in the field though with somewhat limited range. I'm just guessing, but that's probably a 1.0 WAR season, maybe slightly better.

My question is, would you want him back for 2014 at a reduced salary? Or is 2013 the end of the road for Roberts in an Orioles uniform almost regardless of what he does in 2013?

(No need to discuss in this thread your opinions about the low probability of the scenario I've described. Just assume it occurs, then what?)

Yeah. I think he is like Andino. He leaves as a respected old friend. No matter what level he plays at this season, the risk factor would preclude the Orioles from signing any contract other than a minor league one with him.

[wildcard]

He'll have to do better than that. His OBP will have to be close to 350 IMO. An limited range will not be good enough either. He will have to at least have average range.

A lot depends on Flaherty and Schoop's progress. They are going to cost around 500K each so that means BRob salary is going to have to drop about 9.5M.

[Can_of_corn]

Even if he puts up that line you let him walk at the end of the season.

[waroriole]

I would say he's gone. With Schoop, and possibly Flaherty, ready to play in 2014, I think BRob has to be his old self to stick around.

[Frobby]

Then I move him before the trade deadline. Get some value (however small) back.

Because he has played 10 years in the majors and 5+ with the Orioles, Roberts can't be traded without his consent.

[El Gordo]

Assuming he plays well enough next season, say 120 G and a .750ish OPS with a .350 OBP and adequate defense, what would his role be on another team? Is it conceivable he would be a starter for another team? Or he be limited to a role player? Either way I don't see him remaining with the O's.

[Frobby]

I wouldn't say regardless of what he does next year, but you listed a very optimistic scenario, and I still wouldn't want him back.

Well, I don't know if I'd say very optimistic. I basically used Roberts' stats from 2003, the first year he played more than half a season in the majors. I'd say very optimistic would be putting him in the .745 OPS range, akin to what he did in 2010. Of course, any scenario where Roberts stays healthy is necessarily optimistic.

[Frobby]

Assuming he plays well enough next season, say 120 G and a .750ish OPS with a .350 OBP and adequate defense, what would his role be on another team? Is it conceivable he would be a starter for another team? Or he be limited to a role player? Either way I don't see him remaining with the O's.

I'd say someone might want him as a starter in that scenario, so long as they had a decent Plan B. I have to say, if BRob had the season you described, it would be a huge boon to the Orioles and I think the fans would be clamoring for BRob to return. You are basically describing what he did for Buck in August/September 2010 when he returned from his back injury, and that was a huge pick me up for the team at the time. People remember Buck's first two months as manager because the pitching was so good, but Buck also had BRob back in the lineup and that made a big difference.

[TonySoprano]

I'd bid him farewell regardless of how he does, and my expectations are modest.

[stomperspc]

I would only say "yes" to that if these two conditions are met:

1. He is brought back on a drastically reduced salary (somewhere in the $3 m range)

2. Flaherty and Strop (and to a lesser extent, Casilla) struggle so mightily that Roberts for $3 m and a likely sub-.700 OPS is our best second base option for 2104.

I think both of those things are not likely to occur, at least not together, so I would say that 2013 should probably be the end of the road. A .700 OPS version of Roberts does not provide much value as a bench player on an AL team since he could really only play 2B, DH, pinch run, and pinch hit. I don't think you can waste a bench spot on a player with that skill set. If he comes back, it would have to be as a starter and I imagine Flaherty or Schoop will be a more valuable 2B option from a cost/benefit standpoint in 2014.

As far as 2013 is concerned, I would be very happy with that sort of season from Roberts. An OPS around .700 from 2B would have ranked the Orioles in the middle of the pack amongst Major League teams in 2012 at that position which I'd definitely take (especially compared to the .596 we got from second last season which was 29th in MLB).

[MurphDogg]

Then I move him before the trade deadline. Get some value (however small) back.

The Orioles are not going to trade Brian Roberts. He is a 10/5 guy and it is incredibly classless, since you wouldn't get anything of value anyway.

[Frobby]

The Orioles are not going to trade Brian Roberts. He is a 10/5 guy and it is incredibly classless, since you wouldn't get anything of value anyway.

Putting aside the 10/5 point, why would it be classless? We have kept him on the roster for the last three years, paying him $30 mm to provide maybe $5-6 mm of value. I'd say we are entitled to do whatever is best for the ballclub.