Did Saunders ditch his slider in 2012?

[CaptainRedbeard]

I was just looking at Joe Saunders' player page on fangraphs looking for reasons why the improvements in his 2012 season may be sustainable. By peripheral measures, it was his best season since his first full season in 2008 with the Angels. If there is evidence that his improvements in 2012 were sustainable, he might be a great bargain at the prices currently being discussed. I think we can all agree he would be a nice pickup on a 1 year deal, but 2/10-14MM for a 200 IP guy at ~4.00 ERA is pretty darn good, and a lot worse at ~4.50 ERA.

It looks like Saunders is losing velocity at the typical slow rate that pitchers do as they age, not at an accelerated rate that should be worrisome. Last year he had a huge spike in his 2-seamer usage (up to 47%, from a previous season high of 33.5%), mostly at the expense of his 4-seam fastball and slider (which was not used at all for the first time in his career, and previously at a career high of 8.5% in 2011). His curveball usage also bumped up a bit.

Given what we know about Saunders' huge success against LHB and difficulties against RHB, I think the focus on the curveball is a very good thing. He won't need the slider to continue getting lefties out, and the increase in 2-seamers also helps neutralize them more. He really doesn't need the slider in his repertoire, as for most pitchers it is nearly useless against opposite-handed hitters.

Saunders' biggest improvement in last year was cutting his walk rate by almost a full percentage point off his career average. When you're not striking out that many batters, that's huge. His 2.87 K/BB is not only a very solid figure for any SP, but far higher than his career 1.87 mark.

If cutting his pitches thrown down from 5 to 4 by ditching the slider somehow helped improve Saunders' command of the other 4 pitches (4S, 2S, CU, CH), then maybe it is worthwhile re-evaluating his value.




Note: The slider has been by far Saunders' least used pitch in his career, and the pitch FX results are actually pretty good for it. So cutting it out should not have a huge effect on his results unless it somehow improves his focus on using his other pitches, particularly the curveball.

[Dark Helmet]

I'd be shocked if 2/10-14M got Saunders. No way 1/7M gets him. I see a minimal of 2/16M. I think a team will give in to a 3rd year option. I mentioned I thought Saunders would get 2-3 years when the offseason started and got told no way. Not looking so crazy now.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I'd be shocked if 2/10-14M got Saunders. No way 1/7M gets him. I see a minimal of 2/16M. I think a team will give in to a 3rd year option. I mentioned I thought Saunders would get 2-3 years when the offseason started and got told no way. Not looking so crazy now.

Yeah I don't think we'd get him on a one year deal, so that's kind of what this thread was about. More of a "is he worth it at 2/14?" I think if you consider everything in the OP there's a bit of a stronger argument for it.

I think he could definitely get a vesting 3rd year option, and I wouldn't hesitate to give that to him. He may even be able to get the third year guaranteed from a team like the Mariners or possibly the Twins. But ultimately I will be surprised if he gets 3 years at this point. He'll probably get a Blanton-esque contract.

Anyway that's not really what the thread is about, am I grasping at straws with this whole "ditching the slider" thing? It seems like a reasonable argument for sustained improvement to me.

[Dark Helmet]

I'd go 2/16 for Joe and not think twice. He serves a purpose and is a quality pitcher. I wouldn't be opposed to a vesting option for a 3rd year based on IP. Be a security blanket if Hammel can't be extended or if he bombs. I think Saunders would definately be worth it at 2/16M.

[weams]

I'd be shocked if 2/10-14M got Saunders. No way 1/7M gets him. I see a minimal of 2/16M. I think a team will give in to a 3rd year option. I mentioned I thought Saunders would get 2-3 years when the offseason started and got told no way. Not looking so crazy now.

What if he signed for 2/13? Would you be shocked?

[CA-ORIOLE]

According to Brooks Baseball he threw zero sliders in 2012, but has only thrown 3% sliders for his career. It does indicate he relied most heavly on his slider in 2011 (9%), which was actually one of his most successful years (by ERA+).


http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=434578

[Frobby]

I'd be shocked if 2/10-14M got Saunders. No way 1/7M gets him. I see a minimal of 2/16M. I think a team will give in to a 3rd year option. I mentioned I thought Saunders would get 2-3 years when the offseason started and got told no way. Not looking so crazy now.

I'd like to see any post where anyone said you were crazy for thinking Saunders would get two years. But in any event, why is anything you said in November less crazy today? Has any team been reported to have offered Saunders 2-3 years? All we know is that he wants three, and hasn't signed yet. I doubt he gets three, but will be surprised if he doesn't get two.

What if he signed for 2/13? Would you be shocked?

I don't see how the market for him will fall that far, knowing that Guthrie got 3/$25 mm and Blanton got 2/$15 mm. If some team gets him for 2/$13 mm they will be getting a very good deal.

P.S. -- this thread seems to be digressing into a discussion of the market for Saunders, but I want to credit Captain Redbeard for a very interesting analysis of Saunders' pitch selection in the OP.

[weams]

I'd like to see any post where anyone said you were crazy for thinking Saunders would get two years. But in any event, why is anything you said in November less crazy today? Has any team been reported to have offered Saunders 2-3 years? All we know is that he wants three, and hasn't signed yet. I doubt he gets three, but will be surprised if he doesn't get two.



I don't see how the market for him will fall that far, knowing that Guthrie got 3/$25 mm and Blanton got 2/$15 mm. If some team gets him for 2/$13 mm they will be getting a very good deal.

P.S. -- this thread seems to be digressing into a discussion of the market for Saunders, but I want to credit Captain Redbeard for a very interesting analysis of Saunders' pitch selection in the OP.

Pretty sure that's his deal. We shall see.

[Frobby]

Pretty sure that's his deal. We shall see.

I've had mixed feelings about signing Saunders rather than letting Matusz, Britton, Arrieta and Hunter compete for a spot, but at 2/$13 mm I'd probably do it. I'm much more on the fence at 2/$15-16 mm, which is what I think he'll get. If he costs more than that I'd pass for sure.

[CaptainRedbeard]

According to Brooks Baseball he threw zero sliders in 2012, but has only thrown 3% sliders for his career. It does indicate he relied most heavly on his slider in 2011 (9%), which was actually one of his most successful years (by ERA+).


http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=434578

That's true, but that year was an extremely large aberration in ERA. He had an atrocious 1.61 K/BB, 4.78 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 5.75 tERA, and 4.71 SIERA. He far bested all of those numbers in 2012 when he stopped throwing the slider.

[CA-ORIOLE]

That's true, but that year was an extremely large aberration in ERA. He had an atrocious 1.61 K/BB, 4.78 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 5.75 tERA, and 4.71 SIERA. He far bested all of those numbers in 2012 when he stopped throwing the slider.

Yeah, his peripherals were even worse than normal that year. In general I think that's what you get with Saunders though - a guy that will put up innings and hopefully outperform/outpitch his true level of talent.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Yeah, his peripherals were even worse than normal that year. In general I think that's what you get with Saunders though - a guy that will put up innings and hopefully outperform/outpitch his true level of talent.

That's generally how it works with high-contact pitchers (not that you don't know that). His ability to soak up innings is a definite plus. Also, we have the potential to have a pretty darn good defense. I worry about the homers, but Saunders is coming from a very extreme HR stadium for RH batters in AZ, so my money would be on him outperforming his peripherals on our team. The only question is what level those peripherals are at; 2011 level would be awful, 2012 level would be quite good.

I just think if Saunders is a true talent ~2.0 BB/9 and not ~3.0 BB/9, that's the deal breaker on whether or not a 2/14 represents above-average value or simply market value. If his different pitch repertoire has anything to do with that, it's valuable information to have.

[CA-ORIOLE]

That's generally how it works with high-contact pitchers. His ability to soak up innings is a definite plus. Also, we have the potential to have a pretty darn good defense. I worry about the homers, but Saunders is coming from a very extreme HR stadium for RH batters in AZ, so my money would be on him outperforming his peripherals on our team. The only question is what level those peripherals are at; 2011 level would be awful, 2012 level would be quite good.

I just think if Saunders is a true talent ~2.0 BB/9 and not ~3.0 BB/9, that's the deal breaker on whether or not a 2/14 represents above-average value or simply market value. If his different pitch repertoire has anything to do with that, it's valuable information to have.

I don't know. I guess Guthrie/Blanton are the comps. I look at Guthrie and I see decent stuff but poor peripherals. With Blanton his stuff looks ok and his peripherlals are pretty decent. I look at Saunders and I think his stuff stinks and it's pretty obvious his peripherals stink. I wonder how he gets guys out with the stuff he has ....... yet he manages to get guys out. He appeared to be working his 2 seam pretty well last year and locating. I guess he's just got knack for pitching.

I'd prefer to just go one year on Saunders to be honest with you. I'm guessing that won't get it done though. Be interesting to see what he goes for.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I don't know. I guess Guthrie/Blanton are the comps. I look at Guthrie and I see decent stuff but poor peripherals. With Blanton his stuff looks ok and his peripherlals are pretty decent. I look at Saunders and I think his stuff stinks and it's pretty obvious his peripherals stink. I wonder how he gets guys out with the stuff he has ....... yet he manages to get guys out. He appeared to be working his 2 seam pretty well last year and locating. I guess he's just got knack for pitching.

I'd prefer to just go one year on Saunders to be honest with you. I'm guessing that won't get it done though. Be interesting to see what he goes for.

In terms of value I think Saunders is definitely worthy of 2 years. In terms of the state of the Orioles, are we going to want him around in 2014 with Bundy and Gausman knocking down the door? Probably not. Hopefully we get one of Britton, Matusz, or Arrieta on track in the rotation as well, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm with you on the stuff, for the most part. Guthrie had great velocity but not a lot of movement on his fastball, and his secondaries were all about average with the potential to snap off a good breaking ball every once in a while. Saunders definitely gets decent movement on his 2S and used his 4S effectively up in the zone with it, and I think he has a bit of deception that can cause the 4S velocity to play up and get the 2S to induce some weak contact. But he's barely going to break 90 with either pitch and batters can definitely get comfortable in the box against him.

I think his CU can be a very good pitch, but it's not going to get a lot of the downward tilt that can make it effective vs RHB. I can see why he has been so effective vs LHB in his career though, and that is definitely legitimate. The CH was very uninspiring and a big reason he can't get RHB out. At best he can use it to keep RHB off balance but he's got nothing that RHB will swing and miss at. His best chance is to induce some weak contact, but the 2S (arguably his best pitch) is not going to generate GB the same way it does vs LHB.

I like what Saunders can do against a team like the Yankees with a lot of LH bats. But his first start against the Blue Jays? We'll just hope they're solos.

[CA-ORIOLE]

In terms of value I think Saunders is definitely worthy of 2 years. In terms of the state of the Orioles, are we going to want him around in 2014 with Bundy and Gausman knocking down the door? Probably not. Hopefully we get one of Britton, Matusz, or Arrieta on track in the rotation as well, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm with you on the stuff, for the most part. Guthrie had great velocity but not a lot of movement on his fastball, and his secondaries were all about average with the potential to snap off a good breaking ball every once in a while. Saunders definitely gets decent movement on his 2S and used his 4S effectively up in the zone with it, and I think he has a bit of deception that can cause the 4S velocity to play up and get the 2S to induce some weak contact. But he's barely going to break 90 with either pitch and batters can definitely get comfortable in the box against him.

I think his CU can be a very good pitch, but it's not going to get a lot of the downward tilt that can make it effective vs RHB. I can see why he has been so effective vs LHB in his career though, and that is definitely legitimate. The CH was very uninspiring and a big reason he can't get RHB out. At best he can use it to keep RHB off balance but he's got nothing that RHB will swing and miss at. His best chance is to induce some weak contact, but the 2S (arguably his best pitch) is not going to generate GB the same way it does vs LHB.

I like what Saunders can do against a team like the Yankees with a lot of LH bats. But his first start against the Blue Jays? We'll just hope they're solos.

Yeah, that seems fair. I think Guthries' best years were when he was snapping off that nasty slider. When he lost that (for whatever reason), he wasn't nearly as effective. His FB is very good (even if it is pretty straight). I thought his CH was average at best but it seamed to work for him with the FB velocity. Usually get some weak flyballs. I generally thought his command was pretty decent.

As far as Saunders goes, maybe I'm not giving him and his stuff enough credit. He didn't seem to be afraid to work inside on the RHB's and he was effective at working the quadrants. Like you said, his CU seemed like a plus.