More or Less Production - as a Team - in 2013?

[Bradysburns]

Simple question:

In terms of statistical production, do you think the Orioles will have a more or less productive season - as a team - in 2013? Please explain.

For the record, I'm going with more. I believe we'll get enough production from Reimold, Markakis, Roberts, Bundy, Arrieta, Britton, Wada, et al, to generate better team numbers both offensively and pitching-wise.

[isestrex]

This thread is a little broad as I expect some stats to improve while others regress.

However, I voted for slight improvement because I expect to see the rotation put up significantly better numbers than last year, and (not unrelated), I expect the defense to be greatly improved.

Basically the stats we saw in August and September from both the pitching and defense, I expect to carry on and improve into 2013.

[Frobby]

Run scoring - about the same
Run prevention - slightly better

[Bradysburns]

This thread is a little broad as I expect some stats to improve while others regress.

However, I voted for slight improvement because I expect to see the rotation put up significantly better numbers than last year, and (not unrelated), I expect the defense to be greatly improved.

Basically the stats we saw in August and September from both the pitching and defense, I expect to carry on and improve into 2013.

Interesting take on the rotation - what do you see as the main contributing factor to significant improvement there? I think we could see a slight improvement, given the factors cited in the OP. BUT... I would not be surprised by a slight regression with the rotation this season. We have much, much potential... But there's no telling if any of these guys are one-year wonders, so to speak. I just don't know what to expect, really, from our guys. That includes the youngsters, who probably won't come up, if at all, until well into the season.

It's the offense where I think we'll see the bigger statistical improvements. I'm not stats expert, not by a long shot. But as you know, PECOTA has us at 74-ish wins, which I think is ridiculously inaccurate considering all the unofficial "additions" to our team on offense. The Orioles scored 712 runs last regular season. PECOTA has us at 711 for 2013. I think we'll beat that with the maturing Machado, full-time Davis, Reimold, Markakis back, possibly Roberts, etc. I think we will miss Reynolds, but more than compensate with other factors, like speed and contact.

I still think that even if we get a slight pitching regression, the offensive improvements will more than compensate.

[Bradysburns]

Run scoring - about the same
Run prevention - slightly better

Do these hold even with a healthy Reimold and Roberts out there? I would think that runs might go up, and run prevention might go down in that case.

[isestrex]

Interesting take on the rotation - what do you see as the main contributing factor to significant improvement there? I think we could see a slight improvement, given the factors cited in the OP. BUT... I would not be surprised by a slight regression with the rotation this season. We have much, much potential... But there's no telling if any of these guys are one-year wonders, so to speak. I just don't know what to expect, really, from our guys. That includes the youngsters, who probably won't come up, if at all, until well into the season.

It's the offense where I think we'll see the bigger statistical improvements. I'm not stats expert, not by a long shot. But as you know, PECOTA has us at 74-ish wins, which I think is ridiculously inaccurate considering all the unofficial "additions" to our team on offense. The Orioles scored 712 runs last regular season. PECOTA has us at 711 for 2013. I think we'll beat that with the maturing Machado, full-time Davis, Reimold, Markakis back, possibly Roberts, etc. I think we will miss Reynolds, but more than compensate with other factors, like speed and contact.

I still think that even if we get a slight pitching regression, the offensive improvements will more than compensate.

I expect at least one of: Britton/Arrieta/Tillman/Matusz to have a huge breakout year. I expect a few solid "filler" contributions throughout the year from Jurrjens/Johnson/McFarland/Bundy... + all the rest of group #1.

With the crazy amount of depth and decent upside to the pitchers in this system, I'm optimistic that 2-3 of the 10 or so competing arms will have huge seasons. And really, that's all you need to surpass last year's mediocre rotation stats.

[Frobby]

Do these hold even with a healthy Reimold and Roberts out there? I would think that runs might go up, and run prevention might go down in that case.

The offense missed 695 games due to injury last year. If they stay significantly healthier, particularly among their key players, then yes I think they could score more runs than last year. But I'm assuming they will have some injuries to key players -- could be Roberts and Reimold again, or it could be other players.

[El Gordo]

Between 20-40 more runs produced and bewteen 20-40 less runs allowed.

[Bradysburns]

I expect at least one of: Britton/Arrieta/Tillman/Matusz to have a huge breakout year. I expect a few solid "filler" contributions throughout the year from Jurrjens/Johnson/McFarland/Bundy... + all the rest of group #1.

With the crazy amount of depth and decent upside to the pitchers in this system, I'm optimistic that 2-3 of the 10 or so competing arms will have huge seasons. And really, that's all you need to surpass last year's mediocre rotation stats.

If you are right, and I generally agree with this - that Britton or one of the others will stick - and if the lineup meets or surpasses last year's production, what's to say we cannot repeat a 90-plus-win performance?

The rest of the East has improved - ON PAPER. The Yankees didn't do a ton, which was surprising. But it's hard to imagine the Orioles, given all these factors, not remaining competitive.

I noticed that most of the poll respondents feel we'll field a MORE talented team over the course of the season. Given that, I am wondering if we on the board are not underrating the Birds a little. I myself originally said they wouldn't hit .500 without some additions, but now I am starting to think I was dead wrong.