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  1. #1
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Will we look back on this window as a "golden age" of Orioles baseball?

    I really wonder how we will look at 2012 - ????? when it is 2025 or so.

    We're pretty fortunate right now. Our best players are relatively young and cheap.

    Manny Machado -- 20 years old and costs $495 k.
    Chris Davis -- 27 years old and costs $3.3 mm.
    Adam Jones -- 27 years old and costs $8.5 mm.
    JJ Hardy -- 30 years old and costs $7 mm.
    Matt Wieters -- 27 years old and costs $5.5 mm.

    Chris Tillman -- 25 years old and costs $508 k.
    Miguel Gonzalez -- 29 years old and costs $502 k.
    Wei-Yin Chen -- 27 years old and costs $3.57 mm.

    Those 8 guys cost us $29.3 mm for the year. Per fangraphs, they've been worth 20.6 fWAR, valued at about $102 mm so far this year at free agent prices. By the end of the year, their contributions could be worth $150 mm or more, an "excess value" of $120 mm or so.

    Five of these guys will get only nominal raises, if any, in 2014 -- Machado, Hardy, and the three pitchers. Hardy and Chen are under contract and the other three won't be arbitration eligible. Jones has a $4.5 mm raise coming, and Davis and Wieters figure to get substantial raises next year. If I had to guess, the eight players listed above will cost $45-47 mm next year -- still a great deal if they're worth $150 mm again.

    In 2015, the price tag for these eight could go up by a lot. Hardy is a free agent and if he is re-signed, he'll probably get more than the $7 mm he makes now. Davis and Wieters will get raises in their last year of arbtitration, and Tillman and Gonzo will be eligible for the first time. Just guessing here, but these eight players could cost about $60 mm by then, or double what they're getting this year.

    By 2016, Davis, Wieters and Chen are free agents, Manny is abitration eligible, Jones is due a $3 mm raise, and Tillman and Gonzo get arbitration raises. Ouch! Probably an $85 mm+ price tag. And now, Hardy is 33, Gonzo is 32, and Jones, Davis, Wieters and Chen are all 30.

    Hopefully new young talent (Bundy? Gausman? Schoop?) will bubble up to be the cheap guys providing a lot of excess value, but we'll be hard pressed to get this much excess value from a group of 8 guys like we're getting now.

    So enjoy this window, Orioles fans. We've got a fun, exciting team to watch and the key players are all in their primes. I hope DD will find a way to extend our window as far as possible, but I don't know that it will get any better than it is now unless the O's vastly expand their payroll in the next few years -- and I'm sure not going to count on that.


  2. #2
    NewMarketSean's Avatar
    NewMarketSean is offline Plus member Since 05/04 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation
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    It'll be pret-ty tough to beat the 1966 - 1983 era.

  3. #3
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    Yes, because most of us codgers who remember the real golden age, will be gone.

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    I hope so.

    But so many things could go wrong I try to not to speculate.

  5. #5
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    It depends. It won't come close to the REAL golden era that Sean and Weams mention above, but lets say we make the playoffs 2012-2014, 3 playoff years in a row would be the best this team has been in over 30 years. So yes, the younger crowd may look at this time period as a "golden era," but those of us old enough to remember the good times when the Orioles had the best record in ALL of baseball for 15 years will just look at it as a fun couple of years. (and this is coming from a fan who wasn't around until 74)

  6. #6
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewMarketSean View Post
    It'll be pret-ty tough to beat the 1966 - 1983 era.
    Yeah, that would be asking way too much. But if we could equal or exceed the '92-'97 era (5 winning seasons and two playoff appearances in six years), that would be nice.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    Yeah, that would be asking way too much. But if we could equal or exceed the '92-'97 era (5 winning seasons and two playoff appearances in six years), that would be nice.
    Hell, for me, anything better than 14 years of cellar doormats is the "golden era"

  8. #8
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    Excellent post as always Frobby.

    If we had ownership who really cared about winning, we could be WS contenders for the next 3 years, easily.

    The list you put together is a perfect storm of players in their prime with crazy cheap contracts relative to their performance. Yet instead of seizing the opportunity that almost never comes around, we are playing moneyball and will probably look back at this period as "what could have been".

    Makes me sick.

    Anyone think in this division and sport situations like this are going to come around again? Fat chance.

  9. #9
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    If in 2025 things look that way in retrospect, I think a large part of the reason for the opening of the window will be a relatively favorable (or less unfavorable) competitive environment in the AL East. As of now, the most likely factors of that sort, as they would appear in the rear window from 2025, would be that the Yankees' poor management, stinginess and/or bad luck caused them to fall back and that the Blue Jays were still figuring out how to deploy their resources to put a winning team on the field.

  10. #10
    DrungoHazewood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    Yeah, that would be asking way too much. But if we could equal or exceed the '92-'97 era (5 winning seasons and two playoff appearances in six years), that would be nice.
    I think that's a reasonable goal. And that's all I expect out of a successul Orioles team - winning records most years, strong contention more seasons than not, once in a while you have a run in the playoffs.

  11. #11
    Moose Milligan's Avatar
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    Depends on how much we win.

  12. #12
    jamalshw is offline Plus Members since 4/12 Major League Starter Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by weams View Post
    Yes, because most of us codgers who remember the real golden age, will be gone.
    The OP does say "A" golden age, not "THE" golden age. This thread seems to be on the premise that there doesn't necessarily have to be only one golden age. I think we all agree that this stretch is unlikely to equal or exceed the dominance of the birds from 66-83, but even if only a half dozen years, that could still qualify as a 'golden age.'

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by TradeAngelos View Post
    Excellent post as always Frobby.

    If we had ownership who really cared about winning, we could be WS contenders for the next 3 years, easily.

    The list you put together is a perfect storm of players in their prime with crazy cheap contracts relative to their performance. Yet instead of seizing the opportunity that almost never comes around, we are playing moneyball and will probably look back at this period as "what could have been".

    Makes me sick.

    Anyone think in this division and sport situations like this are going to come around again? Fat chance.
    I used to be one of the biggest "haters" of Angelos as there was.

    But, you have to look at the facts.

    #1. They poured money into Sarasota and built a real baseball facility there. Andy said that is the biggest move the Orioles have done to right the ship.
    #2. He hired DD and Buck to run the show.
    #3. Payroll is up to 92 million and expected to go over 100 million next year, with just the current roster.

    They are making smart draft picks and spending the money to sign them.

    Signing big name FAs, doesn't always get you into the WS, just ask the MFYs how that is working for them this year, and remember Boston's payroll last year, didnt get them a WS.

    They are a mid market (Yes, I know, some say small market) team, spending like a mid market team and so far it's worth.

    The way you said will come around again, sounds like you are convinced this team is done for.

  14. #14
    El Gordo's Avatar
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    Yes "what could have been" IMO too. As good as that band of 8 is, it won't get us to the WS without at least adding a TOR. Gausman and/or Bundy may be that by 2016, but those other guys will be getting old by then. The time is now IMO.

  15. #15
    DrungoHazewood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spiritof66 View Post
    If in 2025 things look that way in retrospect, I think a large part of the reason for the opening of the window will be a relatively favorable (or less unfavorable) competitive environment in the AL East. As of now, the most likely factors of that sort, as they would appear in the rear window from 2025, would be that the Yankees' poor management, stinginess and/or bad luck caused them to fall back and that the Blue Jays were still figuring out how to deploy their resources to put a winning team on the field.
    I think there's a reasonable chance for fiscal chaos (if not necessarily a huge drop in overall revenues) if the cable bubble bursts. A lot of teams are going to have massive salary committments based on hundreds of $millions in future cable payments which might be impossible to meet if half the cable subscribers shift to an ala carte broadband TV model. A lot of teams' windows might get remodeled in that case.

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