Tooting My Own Horn

Okay, so this post doesn't have to do with a player the Orioles drafted but I'm posting it anyway. It's about L.B. Dantzler, a player I'm very familiar with who the Blue Jays selected.

As a South Carolina baseball season ticket holder, I watched and analyzed Dantzler's play on many occasions this Spring. Whenever a friend would ask me what players stand out to me on the team, Dantzler was one of the first names I'd mention. He had an outstanding Senior season and had easily the most impressive power tool on the team. His swing setup is a bit unorthodox (reminiscent of Jeff Bagwell) and he had his fair share of wiffs, but he continually impressed me with an above average approach at the plate and an innate ability to drive the ball with consistent hard contact when he put it in play. I remember thinking, how on earth did this guy go undrafted his Junior year?

I helped contribute on a draft profile on him back in May with The Crawfish Boxes and agreed that he ought to be an attractive value pick as a polished Senior hitter that could come off the board as early as the 5th round.

When he lasted to the 14th round, I was a bit disappointed, thinking that I had overrated him, and that he's probably just an organizational slugger and not a prospect.

Then he goes and tears the cover off the ball this Summer, winning Northwest League MVP honors and today was named by Baseball America as one of the league's top 20 prospects, coming in at number 19.

I'll admit, having seen Dantzler struggle to catch up against Ryne Stanek's mid 90's fastball back in April, that I still have some concerns about the unorthodox hitch in his swing affecting his ability to make consistent contact at advanced levels (AA and beyond) of competition. However, his success and accolades earned this Summer restored faith in my own eye's judgement; that he was potentially more than just a Senior sign based on his power tool and above average approach.

If he pans out, I could see Dantzler having a career path very similar to Luke Scott.

Luke Scott would be a good career.

Luke Scott would be a good career.

Perhaps we'll trade for him and team him with CWalk????? With BRob coaching?????

He's a very, very similar player to Conor Bierfeldt. College senior, no defense, unconventional slugger who hit well at age 22 in A- ball.

My system rates these guys as prospects, but they're at the upper end of the age/league curve. Their success rate is pretty low: of the 84 22-yo players with an OPS between .800 and .900 in the NYPL, only 6 became successful major leaguers (7.1%) and only Eckstein was a star. The ceiling for players like this is Kevin Youkilis, but he hit .976 at the same age/level.

The successful players with similar OPS at age 22 in the NYPL are Jason Michaels, Nyjer Morgan, David Eckstein, Ryan Roberts, and Bubba Trammell, and Lew Ford. Notably, all of these players but Trammell played significant time at a premium defensive position.

Just for reference, Luke Scott was significantly older (24) when he entered pro ball.

Perhaps we'll trade for him and team him with CWalk????? With BRob coaching?????

Oh my goodness. My life would be made

He's a very, very similar player to Conor Bierfeldt. College senior, no defense, unconventional slugger who hit well at age 22 in A- ball.

My system rates these guys as prospects, but they're at the upper end of the age/league curve. Their success rate is pretty low: of the 84 22-yo players with an OPS between .800 and .900 in the NYPL, only 6 became successful major leaguers (7.1%) and only Eckstein was a star. The ceiling for players like this is Kevin Youkilis, but he hit .976 at the same age/level.

The successful players with similar OPS at age 22 in the NYPL are Jason Michaels, Nyjer Morgan, David Eckstein, Ryan Roberts, and Bubba Trammell, and Lew Ford. Notably, all of these players but Trammell played significant time at a premium defensive position.

Just for reference, Luke Scott was significantly older (24) when he entered pro ball.

Interesting Info. Thanks.

My inner Gamecock fan I'll be rooting for him to join the 7.1% that made the majors. For what it's worth, he's a capable defender at third base as well, having started almost every game there for S.C. his Junior year.

Interesting Info. Thanks.

My inner Gamecock fan I'll be rooting for him to join the 7.1% that made the majors. For what it's worth, he's a capable defender at third base as well, having started almost every game there for S.C. his Junior year.

More than 7% make it to the majors, but only 7% manage >1600 PA with >1 WAR, which is my working definition of a "successful" player.

17/84 of these players made the majors, or 20.2%.

Though I agree completely that rooting for guys like this is one of the joys of following minor league ball. And good defense always helps!