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  1. #1
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    The 2014 Offensive Projections Thread

    ZiPS, Steamer and Oliver are all out with projections now, so I thought I'd begin my annual chart:

    Code:
    Player	PA	ZiPS	Steamer	Oliver
    Davis	612	0.886	0.868	0.922
    Flah'ty	391	0.686	0.672	0.701
    Weeks	200	0.644	0.688	0.658
    Machado	684	0.761	0.739	0.753
    Hardy	612	0.732	0.722	0.718
    Wiet's 	573	0.741	0.744	0.744
    Clev'er	160	0.657	0.683	0.704
    Lough	420	0.695	0.693	0.696
    Jones	662	0.788	0.799	0.801
    Mark'is	639	0.731	0.759	0.713
    Reimold	317	0.701	0.695	0.721
    Urrutia	317	0.714	0.743	0.741
    Pearce	317	0.737	0.762	0.763
    Other	250	0.601	0.601	0.601
    Total	6154	0.739	0.742	0.747
    Last year's actual team OPS was .744, so these would leave the offense in good shape. For now, I used ZiPS' PA projections for Davis, Flaherty, Hardy, Machado, Wieters, Jones and Markakis, and I filled in the others with estimates designed to make the total (6154) come out about right. I'm sure I'll refine these as the offseason progresses.
    Last edited by Frobby; 12-26-2013 at 10:09 PM.


  2. #2
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Adding Bill James now. As usual, he's more optimistic than the others.

    Code:
    Player	PA	ZiPS	Steamer	Oliver	BJames
    Davis	612	0.886	0.868	0.922	0.903
    Flah'y	391	0.686	0.672	0.701	0.721
    Weeks	200	0.644	0.688	0.658	0.739
    Machado	684	0.761	0.739	0.753	0.762
    Hardy	612	0.732	0.722	0.718	0.729
    W'ters 	573	0.741	0.744	0.744	0.763
    Clev'er	160	0.657	0.683	0.704	0.738
    Lough	420	0.702	0.693	0.696	0.717
    Jones	662	0.788	0.799	0.801	0.805
    Mark'is	639	0.731	0.759	0.713	0.783
    Reimold	317	0.701	0.695	0.721	0.747
    Urrutia	317	0.714	0.743	0.741	0.733
    Pearce	317	0.737	0.762	0.763	0.783
    Other	250	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601
    Total	6154	0.740	0.742	0.747	0.765
    Last edited by Frobby; 12-28-2013 at 05:51 PM.

  3. #3
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    Thanks for sharing these.

    Quick question: are the PA's projections as well? I ask because I notice that Machado has more PA's listed than the others. Given his status this off-season, I find this surprising.

  4. #4
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by Round Tripper View Post
    Thanks for sharing these.

    Quick question: are the PA's projections as well? I ask because I notice that Machado has more PA's listed than the others. Given his status this off-season, I find this surprising.
    For now, I'm using the PA projections from ZiPS for Davis, Flaherty, Hardy, Machado, Wieters, Jones and Markakis, and filling in the others to make the overall PA work out about right. I doubt ZiPS factors in whether a player is having surgery in the offseason. My plan is to adjust these projections close to Opening Day once we know for sure who's on the 25-man roster to open the season. Personally, I'm optimistic Manny will be ready for Opening Day, but if he isn't, his PA projection will be adjusted.

  5. #5
    Pat Kelly is offline Plus Member since 10/11 Major Leagues Reputation Reputation
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    .739 for Weeks and Clevenger? If Bill James is right 2B and backup catcher would be pluses for 2014. On Davis don't think there will be as much regression as some may project. He will be pitched too even more carefully and if he lays off more pitches we'll see 125 BB. Also Jones will continue to mature as a hitter and fully expect Markakis to thrive in the lead off spot.

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    I'll have some of what Bill James is having bartender, and make it a double.

  7. #7
    El Gordo's Avatar
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    I like me some Bill James.

  8. #8
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Now adding RotoChamp and CAIRO:

    Code:
    Player	PA	ZiPS	Steamer	Oliver	BJames	RChamp	CAIRO
    Davis	612	0.886	0.868	0.922	0.903	0.918	0.907
    Flah'y	391	0.686	0.672	0.701	0.721	0.722	0.689
    Weeks	200	0.644	0.688	0.658	0.739	0.688	0.649
    Machado	684	0.761	0.739	0.753	0.762	0.732	0.736
    Hardy	612	0.732	0.722	0.718	0.729	0.784	0.735
    W'ters 	573	0.741	0.744	0.744	0.763	0.777	0.735
    Clev'er	160	0.657	0.683	0.704	0.738	0.696	0.696
    Lough	420	0.702	0.693	0.696	0.717	0.702	0.702
    Jones	662	0.788	0.799	0.801	0.805	0.839	0.816
    Mark'is	639	0.731	0.759	0.713	0.783	0.744	0.754
    Reimold	317	0.701	0.695	0.721	0.747	0.723	0.704
    Urrutia	317	0.714	0.743	0.741	0.733	0.562	0.762
    Pearce	317	0.737	0.762	0.763	0.783	0.735	0.771
    Other	250	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601
    Total	6154	0.740	0.742	0.747	0.765	0.753	0.750
    RotoChamp would have been higher than it was, but it projected Urrutia at .562 based on 0 PA. I'm only using the OPS projection, not the PA projection.

  9. #9
    El Gordo's Avatar
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    I'm with Bill James.

  10. #10
    wildcard is offline Plus Member since 11/03 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    Now adding RotoChamp and CAIRO:

    Code:
    Player	PA	ZiPS	Steamer	Oliver	BJames	RChamp	CAIRO
    Davis	612	0.886	0.868	0.922	0.903	0.918	0.907
    Flah'y	391	0.686	0.672	0.701	0.721	0.722	0.689
    Weeks	200	0.644	0.688	0.658	0.739	0.688	0.649
    Machado	684	0.761	0.739	0.753	0.762	0.732	0.736
    Hardy	612	0.732	0.722	0.718	0.729	0.784	0.735
    W'ters 	573	0.741	0.744	0.744	0.763	0.777	0.735
    Clev'er	160	0.657	0.683	0.704	0.738	0.696	0.696
    Lough	420	0.702	0.693	0.696	0.717	0.702	0.702
    Jones	662	0.788	0.799	0.801	0.805	0.839	0.816
    Mark'is	639	0.731	0.759	0.713	0.783	0.744	0.754
    Reimold	317	0.701	0.695	0.721	0.747	0.723	0.704
    Urrutia	317	0.714	0.743	0.741	0.733	0.562	0.762
    Pearce	317	0.737	0.762	0.763	0.783	0.735	0.771
    Other	250	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601
    Total	6154	0.740	0.742	0.747	0.765	0.753	0.750
    RotoChamp would have been higher than it was, but it projected Urrutia at .562 based on 0 PA. I'm only using the OPS projection, not the PA projection.
    Interesting that all the ranking service seem to think that Pearce has a better year than Reimold or Urrutia.

  11. #11
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by wildcard View Post
    Interesting that all the ranking service seem to think that Pearce has a better year than Reimold or Urrutia.
    I think that is the "safe" play. The projections on Pearce seem optimistic to me (his career OPS is .694), but he's been over .700 two years in a row, unlike the other two.

  12. #12
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    Frobby, do any of these services, have a track record of being more accurate than the others?
    Thanks

  13. #13
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by Triple Crown View Post
    Frobby, do any of these services, have a track record of being more accurate than the others?
    Thanks
    Here's a decent breakdown from a few years ago: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the...-and-the-rest/
    And another: http://www.mrcheatsheet.com/2013/02/...ojections.html

    For me, they're all purely recreational. I like to make my own projections (which I'll do later in the offseason) and see how I do compared to these. But a lot depends on allocation of the plate appearances. Change those around and the team result can be a lot different. Right now my chart only shows 14 players and then a default "other" getting 250 PA, but I can pretty much guarantee that players other than the 14 I listed will get way more than 250 PA. The O's used 26 position players last year and guys outside the top 14 had 302 PA; in 2012, they also used 26 players but the guys outside the top 14 had 780 PA, and that doesn't include 663 PA from McLouth, Thome, Quintanilla and Machado, all of whom finished in the top 14 in PA but would not have been listed there when the year started. I will probably include more players and tweak the PA allocation towards the end of spring training when we see who is healthy and who has made the team, etc.

  14. #14
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Now adding in the ultra-pessimistic PECOTA:

    Code:
    Player	PA	ZiPS	Steamer	Oliver	BJames	RChamp	CAIRO	PECOTA
    Davis	612	0.886	0.868	0.922	0.903	0.918	0.907	0.801
    Flah'y	391	0.686	0.672	0.701	0.721	0.722	0.689	0.686
    Weeks	200	0.644	0.688	0.658	0.739	0.688	0.649	0.687
    Machado	684	0.761	0.739	0.753	0.762	0.732	0.736	0.721
    Hardy	612	0.732	0.722	0.718	0.729	0.784	0.735	0.692
    W'ters 	573	0.741	0.744	0.744	0.763	0.777	0.735	0.729
    Clev'er	160	0.657	0.683	0.704	0.738	0.696	0.696	0.663
    Lough	420	0.702	0.693	0.696	0.717	0.702	0.702	0.668
    Jones	662	0.788	0.799	0.801	0.805	0.839	0.816	0.775
    Mark'is	639	0.731	0.759	0.713	0.783	0.744	0.754	0.738
    Reimold	317	0.701	0.695	0.721	0.747	0.723	0.704	0.735
    Urrutia	317	0.714	0.743	0.741	0.733	0.562	0.762	0.731
    Pearce	317	0.737	0.762	0.763	0.783	0.735	0.771	0.735
    Other	250	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601
    Total	6154	0.740	0.742	0.747	0.765	0.753	0.750	0.723

  15. #15
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Code:
    Player	PA	ZiPS	Steamer	Oliver	BJames	RChamp	CAIRO	PECOTA
    Davis	612	0.886	0.868	0.922	0.903	0.918	0.907	0.801
    Flah'y	391	0.686	0.672	0.701	0.721	0.721	0.689	0.686
    Weeks	200	0.644	0.688	0.658	0.739	0.688	0.649	0.687
    Machado	684	0.761	0.739	0.753	0.762	0.732	0.736	0.721
    Hardy	612	0.732	0.722	0.718	0.729	0.738	0.735	0.692
    W'ters 	573	0.741	0.744	0.744	0.763	0.777	0.735	0.729
    Clev'er	160	0.657	0.683	0.704	0.738	0.696	0.696	0.663
    Lough	420	0.702	0.693	0.696	0.717	0.704	0.702	0.668
    Jones	662	0.788	0.799	0.801	0.805	0.839	0.816	0.775
    Mark'is	639	0.731	0.759	0.713	0.783	0.745	0.754	0.738
    Cruz	550	0.785	0.779	0.777	0.791	0.797	0.827	0.784
    Reimold	132	0.701	0.695	0.721	0.747	0.722	0.704	0.735
    Urrutia	132	0.714	0.743	0.741	0.733	0.561	0.762	0.731
    Pearce	132	0.737	0.762	0.763	0.783	0.734	0.771	0.735
    Other	250	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601	0.601
    Total	6149	0.745	0.746	0.750	0.768	0.760	0.757	0.728
    Revised projections adding in Nelson Cruz. Right now I'm putting in an equal number of PA for each of Reimold, Urrutia and Pearce, and I'm assuming Weeks is the backup 2B. I plan to adjust the PA assumptions near the end of Spring Training when we see who is healthy, who has made the team and what their likely roles are. In any event, the addition of Cruz seems to have been worth a 3 to 7 point jump in the projected team OPS. All systems except PECOTA have us above last season (with the important caveat that the PA assumptions are mine, not theirs).

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