View Poll Results: Choose the most likely offensive year.

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  • Matt Wieters - 110GP -.260/.351/.541 - .892OPS

    12 28.57%
  • Ryan Flaherty - 157GP - .270/.370/.471 - .841OPS

    9 21.43%
  • Nolan Reimold - 145GP - .260/.366/.524 - .890OPS

    4 9.52%
  • Nick Markakis - 157GP - .306/.406/.491 - .897OPS

    17 40.48%
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  1. #1
    oriole's Avatar
    oriole is offline Plus Member since 01/12 Major League Starter Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Which of these offensive years are most likely?

    These are the types of years we all dream about these players having...which is most likely?


  2. #2
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    Silly choices....

    bit I went with Riemold because he could do those numbers if he was 100%

    Wieters will be <= .780
    Flaherty will be lucky to play 120 games and OPS .750
    Markakis ceiling is about .800

  3. #3
    oriole's Avatar
    oriole is offline Plus Member since 01/12 Major League Starter Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    I'm aware these are outlandish options...but did anyone think Davis would OPS over 1.000 before last year? Probably not...I thought that's what would make this an interesting poll.

  4. #4
    Frobby is offline Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Which is more likely, me winning the lottery or being elected President? It's me winning the lottery, but that doesn't make me want to go out and buy lottery tickets.

    I'll go with Wieters as my lottery ticket, what the hell.

  5. #5
    El Gordo's Avatar
    El Gordo is offline Plus member since 6/06 Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by oriole View Post
    These are the types of years we all dream about these players having...which is most likely?
    Absolutely none of them are possible IMO. Having said that I would say Markakis, since he has come closest to those numbers is the past.

  6. #6
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    Forgot last option of none of the above.

    There is probably a less than 5% chance ANY of them have of happening. Ever, much less in 2014.

  7. #7
    oriole's Avatar
    oriole is offline Plus Member since 01/12 Major League Starter Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Alright grumpy gills...apparently you guys are too jaded to think of fun outside possibilities.

    These players could feasibly achieve these numbers, but whatever. We suck, let's call the whole season off.

  8. #8
    Frobby is offline Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by oriole View Post
    Alright grumpy gills...apparently you guys are too jaded to think of fun outside possibilities.

    These players could feasibly achieve these numbers, but whatever. We suck, let's call the whole season off.
    Nobody said that. I'm pretty sure if you had run a poll last spring that posited a 1.000 OPS season from Chris Davis, you would have gotten a similar response. But none of the scenarios you posted is "likely" a priori.

  9. #9
    NCRaven's Avatar
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    I think Duq's off season has been far more offensive than any of the offensive choices listed here. Before the winter meetings, I wouldn't have bet on that any more than any of these. Who knew?

  10. #10
    oriole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    Nobody said that. I'm pretty sure if you had run a poll last spring that posited a 1.000 OPS season from Chris Davis, you would have gotten a similar response. But none of the scenarios you posted is "likely" a priori.
    I concur, none are likely and that's an understatement. Maybe I worded it confusingly. Every year there are gems....Davis last year, Rodney when his ERA was under 1.00...baseball isn't a black and white picture entirely based on career averages and educated projections. There are surprises and outliers, both good and bad .

    Maybe I should have said, " which unlikely breakout season seems the least unrealistic?"

  11. #11
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    I think Flaherty's ceiling is OPSing .800 so I picked him. I don't think he'd ever achieve the OBP in that poll but...

    The rest of those are beyond possible.

  12. #12
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    Hmm, let's see. The choices are Nick returning to his 2008 self, Wieters' OPS .114 higher than his career best, Reimold staying healthy for the most games played since the last three years combined, and Flaherty OPS increasing by .158 for the best season of an Orioles second baseman since Roberts in 2008. None of the above would be a winning selection but since it's not one, coin-flip says Wieters wins gold for the Boras Evil Empire and starts hitting as he heads toward a contract year in 2015, Reimold gets the silver. Markakis takes the bronze for team Greece.
    Last edited by TonySoprano; 02-11-2014 at 11:10 PM.

  13. #13
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    I chose Flaherty, primarily because I think the hardest accomplishment noted in your stats is having a roughly .100 difference in BA and OBP. C Davis led the team (of fairly regular position players) with a difference of .084 (.286 BA and .370 OBP). But of the players you mention above, Flaherty had the highest split with a .069 (.224 BA and .293 OBP). If he gets off to a great start, anchors second all year, and knocks 25-30 out of the park, he stands a chance. Not a good one, but a chance.

    BTW, I'm pretty sure a .100 increase in OBP from BA is difficult to achieve unless you walk about 85-100 times a year, which no one on our team did last year.... In order to have a .100 split of .300 BA / .400 OBP, you need to have 26 H and 14 BB per 100 PA (throwing out HBPs for the meantime). 26/86 with 14 walks = .302 BA / .400 OBP. Assuming 4 PA a game, the season yields 648 PAs. Thus you would need approx. 168 hits and 91 walks to pull off a .302 / .400 slash line over a 162 game season. Less of each the lower your BA goes. But the point is that you have to walk a heck of a lot to pull it off.

  14. #14
    foxfield is offline Plus Member Since 9/12 Major Leagues Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Id have to go with Matt. The numbers you post are not completely out of range for him except for the OPS and I think if he landed above 700 he and Boras would be ecstatic.

  15. #15
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    Nick is by far the outlier in this group. I could easily see Flaherty or Wieters put up those numbers. If baseball gods grant Reimold the miracle of playing 145 games I could see him putting up those lofty numbers.

    ..but there's no chance of Nick slugging close to .500 or hitting .300 again. I think that ship has sailed.

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