View Poll Results: Project Chris Davis' OPS for 2014

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  • Over 1.000

    4 4.04%
  • .950 - .999

    19 19.19%
  • .900 - .949

    41 41.41%
  • .850 - .899

    26 26.26%
  • .800 - 849

    8 8.08%
  • Under .800

    1 1.01%
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  1. #1
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    The Chris Davis Projection Thread

    This one should be interesting....


  2. #2
    dan-O's Avatar
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    .840 career, 1.004 last year.

    I'm going middle ground here - .900 - .949.

  3. #3
    LookinUp's Avatar
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    I wish .850-.950 was an option. That would have been my choice. As it stands, I went with a projection in the upper .800's.

  4. #4
    33rdst is offline Plus Member since 11/03 All-Star Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Excellent article on CNN/SI on why Chris Davis may even improve next year. Points made, his hit dispersion. Not only is he able to hit HR to all fields, he's hitting to all fields generally. Despite the fact that teams continue to play a shift on him. The author thinks Chris has developed into a good hitter, double digit walk rate and top 25 OBP will help maintain his BA and OBP .
    Last edited by 33rdst; 02-20-2014 at 12:40 PM.

  5. #5
    dan-O's Avatar
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    I was very worried about him during that post-All Star break extended slump he went into, but he managed to bust out of that heading into August and September, IIRC.

    When Chris lays off the breaking ball in the dirt, he goes bananas. If he's chasing that ball, he struggles. It's really that simple when you watch him hit. I don't see a reason he can't continue to mash if he maintains his technique at the plate and lays off the junk pitches.

  6. #6
    Frobby is online now Hangout Blogger Hall of Fame Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by 33rdst View Post
    Excellent article on CNN/SI on why Chris Davis will not regress significantly. Points made, his hit dispersion. Not only is he able to hit HR to all fields, he's hitting to all fields generally. Despite the fact that teams continue to play a shift on him. The author thinks Chris has developed into a good hittet, his BA and OBP should not suffer significantly.
    Chris is definitely a better hitter now than he was in 2012, stats aside. He still gets some holes in his swing at times, and has trouble laying off or handling certain pitches (breaking balls down and in off the plate, fastballs up and in). But, he is more selective than he used to be. His walk rate was way up last year, partly because pitchers feared him, but in large part because he learned not to swing at certain pitches.

  7. #7
    oriole's Avatar
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    I expect significant regression. I'm gonna say something like .825, which is still a solid player but until I see another year of superstar performance I'm convinced last year was an aberration. I hope to see better than my predictions though.

  8. #8
    Mayor McCheese's Avatar
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    I have a dream.... a dream for MVP

  9. #9
    33rdst is offline Plus Member since 11/03 All-Star Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation Reputation
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frobby View Post
    Chris is definitely a better hitter now than he was in 2012, stats aside. He still gets some holes in his swing at times, and has trouble laying off or handling certain pitches (breaking balls down and in off the plate, fastballs up and in). But, he is more selective than he used to be. His walk rate was way up last year, partly because pitchers feared him, but in large part because he learned not to swing at certain pitches.
    I agree he has become better hitter and is putting up walk rates closer to what he showed in the minors. That said I still have him falling below 1.000 Ops. I still see him putting up close to 4 WAR.

  10. #10
    isestrex's Avatar
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    Chris Davis OPS by month
    Code:
    Apr 1.171
    May 1.210
    Jun 1.028
    Jul  .794
    Aug 1.054
    Sep  .755
    I honestly can't see how it's not over .900

  11. #11
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    Low 900 OPS, something like 920.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by isestrex View Post
    Chris Davis OPS by month
    Code:
    Apr 1.171
    May 1.210
    Jun 1.028
    Jul  .794
    Aug 1.054
    Sep  .755
    I honestly can't see how it's not over .900
    Me neither, but somebody thinks it will be under .800.

  13. #13
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    Night Baseball. Threes and nines are wild. .939.

  14. #14
    Ooooooohhhh!!!!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by isestrex View Post
    I honestly can't see how it's not over .900
    His HR/Flyball and BABIP were very high in the 1st half of the season. I think his 2nd half is more in line with his true production. That's still a high .800s OPS player. My guess is .890.

  15. #15
    isestrex's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ooooooohhhh!!!! View Post
    His HR/Flyball and BABIP were very high in the 1st half of the season. I think his 2nd half is more in line with his true production. That's still a high .800s OPS player. My guess is .890.
    How many homers do you project? I plugged in 45 and got an OPS over .900. Do you think his HR/flyball will result in less home runs than 45?

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